PARTICIPANTS

George Shultz, Martin Schneider, Monika Piazzesi, John Taylor, John Gunn, Johannes Stroebel, Ken Scott, Michael Boskin, John Powers, John Raisian, Charles Johnson, John Shoven

ISSUES DISCUSSED

John Cogan discussed preliminary results from his analysis of the development of entitlement spending since 1795. He began by providing a time-series decomposition of government outlays into defense spending, discretionary spending and entitlement spending. He argued that an appreciation of the growth of entitlement spending was crucial to understanding recent debt dynamics.

Cogan showed that most expansions of entitlement spending occurred during periods of budget surplus. This was true for the expansion of the revolutionary war pensions, as well as for the introduction of the Universal Service Pension in 1832, the U.S.’s first retirement program, and the Arrears Act of 1879, which increased pensions of Union Civil War veterans. Cogan also discussed the failures of past trust-fund projects, in particular the Navy Trust Fund.

Cogan also addressed the few instances when entitlement programs were reduced, emphasizing the pivotal role of the president in forcing any such cutbacks. He focused particularly on the cutbacks of World War I pensions introduced by FDR. Cogan also discussed the impact of pension votes on presidential election outcomes, arguing that voting for increased entitlement spending contributed a significant amount to Republican electoral victories in the later 1800s and early 1900s.

Upcoming Events

Friday, March 29, 2024 10:00 AM PT
Japanese America on the Eve of the Pacific War: An Untold History of the 1930s
Hoover Book Club: Japanese America on the Eve of the Pacific War
In our latest installment, watch a discussion between Michael R. Auslin and Tosh Minohara on Japanese America on the Eve of the Pacific War: An… Hoover Institution, Stanford University
Friday, March 29, 2024 12:15 PM PST
Lou Henry Hoover at center of picnicing Zoology club, circa 1897
Carillon Concert For Lou Henry Hoover’s 150th Birthday
Join us for a Musical Tribute to Lou Henry Hoover in Celebration of her 150th Birthday. Hoover Tower Lawn
Monday, April 8, 2024
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Markets vs. Mandates: Promoting Environmental Quality and Economic Prosperity
On April 8, 2024, the Hoover Institution will host its second annual one-day conference on Markets vs. Mandates: Promoting Environmental Quality and… David and Joan Traitel Building, Hoover Institution, Stanford University
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