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Monday, September 11, 2017

Fall 2017 Issue 54

Foreign Policy
Foreign Policy

Chinese Attitudes Toward The U.S. Withdrawal From The Paris Climate Accords

by Michael D. Swainevia China Leadership Monitor
Monday, September 11, 2017

China’s leaders strongly oppose President Donald J. Trump’s decision to withdraw the United States from the Paris Climate Accords.

China-Taiwan-United States
China-Taiwan-United States

Cross-Strait Relations: Skepticism Abounds

by Alan D. Rombergvia China Leadership Monitor
Monday, September 11, 2017

Whether the issue is internal splits within Taiwan’s two major political parties or Beijing’s view of the parties and their leaders, the predominating mood today is skepticism. 

Military Affairs
Military Affairs

Oh Fang, Where Art Thou? Xi Jinping and the PLA’s 90th Anniversary

by James Mulvenonvia China Leadership Monitor
Monday, September 11, 2017

As the Chinese Communist Party heads into the 19th Party Congress in October, Xi Jinping’s speech commemorating the 90th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army was notable both for what he said and what he did not say.

Economic Policy
Economic Policy

The General Secretary’s Extended Reach: Xi Jinping Combines Economics and Politics

by Barry Naughtonvia China Leadership Monitor
Monday, September 11, 2017

Xi Jinping has seized the initiative in economic policy, making himself the dominant actor in financial regulation and environmental policy, among other areas. 

Political Reform and Governance
Political Reform and Governance

A Cadre by Any Other Name Would Smell as Sweet? Domestic Policy Trajectory after the 19th Party Congress

by Jessica Batkevia China Leadership Monitor
Monday, September 11, 2017

In advance of the leadership reshuffle this fall, with five of seven Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) members expected to vacate their seats, observers’ focus is trained on the top candidates for advancement and the intense competition between them.

Party Affairs
Party Affairs

Xi Jinping And The Party’s “Guiding Ideology”

by Alice L. Millervia China Leadership Monitor
Monday, September 11, 2017

As the 19th Party Congress approaches, there is widespread speculation that the party constitution will be revised to incorporate concepts associated with party General Secretary Xi Jinping as part of the party’s authoritative “guiding ideology.”

E.g., 10 / 20 / 2017
E.g., 10 / 20 / 2017
Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Fall 2014: Issue 45

Foreign Policy

by Michael D. Swaine Tuesday, October 21, 2014
article

China-Taiwan-United States

by Alan D. Romberg Tuesday, October 21, 2014
article

Military Affairs

by James Mulvenon Tuesday, October 21, 2014
article

Economic Policy

by Barry Naughton Tuesday, October 21, 2014
article

Party Affairs

by Alice L. Miller Tuesday, October 21, 2014
article

The Provinces

by Cheng Li Tuesday, October 21, 2014
article
Friday, March 14, 2014

Spring 2014: Issue 43

Foreign Policy

by Michael D. Swaine Friday, March 14, 2014
article

China-Taiwan-United States

by Alan D. Romberg Friday, March 14, 2014
article

Military Affairs

by James Mulvenon Friday, March 14, 2014
article

Political Reform

by Joseph Fewsmith Friday, March 14, 2014
article

Economic Policy

by Barry Naughton Friday, March 14, 2014
article

Party Affairs

by Alice L. Miller Thursday, March 13, 2014
article

The Provinces

by Cheng Li Friday, March 14, 2014
article

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Military Affairs

Xi Jinping Has a Cool New Nickname: “Commander-in-Chief”

by James Mulvenonvia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, August 30, 2016

On 20 April 2016, Xi Jinping formally inspected the Central Military Commission’s joint battle command center, broadcast on national television.

China-Taiwan-United States

The First 100 Days: Crossing the River While Feeling the Stones

by Alan D. Rombergvia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, August 30, 2016

As Tsai Ing-wen strives to jumpstart her priority domestic programs, she is finding that governance is hard.

Foreign Policy

Chinese Views on the South China Sea Arbitration Case between the People’s Republic of China and the Philippines

by Michael D. Swainevia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, August 30, 2016

The Philippines v. China arbitration case and the furor over its verdict constitute a significant development that could influence the prospects for future rivalry or cooperation in the Western Pacific. 

Military Affairs

PLA Divestiture 2.0: We Mean It This Time

by James Mulvenonvia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, July 19, 2016

In November 2015, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) announced that the military’s remaining sanctioned participation in the PRC economy, known as “paid services,” would be phased out over the course of three years.

Map of Taiwan
China-Taiwan-United States

Tsai Ing-wen Takes Office: A New Era in Cross-Strait Relations

by Alan D. Rombergvia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, July 19, 2016

In her May 20 inaugural address Tsai Ing-wen laid out in stark terms the daunting economic and social challenges that Taiwan faces in the months and years ahead, as well as her determination to meet those challenges. 

Foreign Policy

Chinese Views on the Presumptive U.S. Presidential Candidates Hillary R. Clinton and Donald J. Trump

by Michael D. Swainevia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, July 19, 2016

This year’s presidential election, like past ones, features China and U.S.-China relations as a talking point for candidates from both parties. 

Party Affairs

“Core” Leaders, “Authoritative Persons,” And Reform Pushback

by Alice L. Millervia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, July 19, 2016

References in PRC media in recent months to China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, as “core” leader, and publication in May of a long dissertation on economic policy appearing in the Chinese Communist Party’s official newspaper under the byline “An Authoritative Person” have provoked controversy among observers of Chinese leadership politics.  

Economic Policy

Two Trains Running: Supply-Side Reform, SOE Reform and the Authoritative Personage

by Barry Naughtonvia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, July 19, 2016

The publication of a new article by “Authoritative Personage” on May 9, 2016, threw into the open two unresolved issues of Chinese policy: Who is making economic reform policy?  What is the mix between reform and growth? 

Military Affairs

Promoting “Young Guards”:
 The Recent High Turnover in the PLA Leadership (Part III: Personal and Political)

by Cheng Livia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, July 19, 2016

The bold moves toward reform of China’s military will have profound implications not only for Xi Jinping’s political standing in the lead-up to the next leadership turnover in 2017, but also for the development of civilian-military relations in the country and for the trajectory of China’s military modernization. 

Party Affairs

Projecting the Next Politburo Standing Committee

by Alice L. Millervia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, March 1, 2016

Analysis of appointments to the Politburo Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party shows that over the past two decades three simple rules have been followed.

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The China Leadership Monitor seeks to inform the American foreign policy community about current trends in China's leadership politics and in its foreign and domestic policies. The Monitor proceeds on the premise that as China's importance in international affairs grows, American policy-makers and the broader policy-interested public increasingly need analysis of politics among China's leadership that is accurate, comprehensive, systematic, current, and relevant to major areas of interest to the United States.

China Leadership Monitor analysis rests heavily on traditional China-watching methods of interpreting information in China's state-controlled media. Use of these methods was once universal among specialists in contemporary Chinese affairs. Although the use of these methods has declined as opportunities to study China using other approaches have opened up in recent decades, their value in following politics among China's top leadership has not. Monitor analysis also brings to bear some of the new avenues of information and insight that have opened up since the normalization of U.S.-China relations and China's policy "opening to the outside world" in the late 1970s.

The China Leadership Monitor website is updated with new analyses quarterly.

Subscribe here to receive a free copy in your email inbox every quarter.

The China Leadership Monitor is sponsored by the Hoover Institution on War, Revolution, and Peace at Stanford University. Its general editor is Hoover Institution research fellow Alice Miller.