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THE WAR ON TERROR: Bush Country
By Fouad Ajami
In the Arab world, there is something new and exhilarating in the air—a debate on the meaning of freedom. By Fouad Ajami.
“George W. Bush has unleashed a tsunami on this
region,” a shrewd Kuwaiti merchant who
knows the way of his world said to me. The man had no patience with the
standard refrain that Arab reform had to come from within, that a foreign
power cannot alter the age-old ways of the Arabs. “Everything
here—the borders of these states, the oil explorations that remade
the life of this world, the political outcomes that favored the elites now
in the saddle—came from the outside. This moment of possibility for
the Arabs is no exception.” A Jordanian of vast political experience
at the highest reaches of Arab political life
had no doubt as to why history suddenly broke
in Lebanon and could conceivably change in Syria itself before long.
“The people in the streets of Beirut knew that no second Hama is
possible; they knew that the rulers were under the gaze of American power,
and knew that Bush would not permit a massive
crackdown by the men in Damascus.”
My informant’s reference to Hama was telling:
It had been there, in 1982, in that city of the Syrian interior, that the
Baathist-Alawite regime had broken and overwhelmed Syrian society. Hama had
been a stronghold of the Muslim Brotherhood and a fortress of the Sunni
middle class. It had rebelled, and the regime had unleashed on it a
merciless terror. There were estimates that 25,000 of its people perished
in that fight. Henceforth, the memory of Hama
hung over the life of Syria—and Lebanon. But the people in the plazas of Beirut, and the Syrian intellectuals
who have stepped forth to challenge the Baathist regime, have behind them
the warrant, and the green light, of American power and protection.
To venture into the Arab world, as I did recently
over four weeks in Qatar, Kuwait, Jordan, and
Iraq, is to travel into Bush Country. I encountered people from practically all Arab lands and listened in on a great
debate about the possibility of freedom and
liberty. I met Lebanese giddy with the Cedar Revolution that liberated
their country from the Syrian prison that had seemed
an unalterable curse. They were under no illusions about the changes that had come their way. They
knew that this new history was the gift of an American president who had put the Syrian rulers on notice.
The speed with which Syria quit Lebanon
was astonishing, a race to the border to forestall an American strike that
the regime could not discount. I met Syrians in the know who admitted that
the fear of American power, and the example of American forces flushing
Saddam Hussein out of his spider hole, now drives Syrian policy. They hang
on George Bush’s words in Damascus, I was told, the rulers wondering
if Iraq was a crystal ball in which they could glimpse their future.
The weight of American power, historically on the
side of the dominant order, now drives this new quest among the Arabs. For
decades, the intellectual classes in the Arab world bemoaned the
indifference of American power to the cause of their liberty. Now a
conservative American president has come bearing the gift of Wilsonian
redemption. For a quarter-century the Pax Americana had sustained the
autocracy of Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak, who had posed as
America’s man on the Nile, a bulwark against the Islamists. He was
sly and cunning, running afoul of our purposes in Iraq and over
Israeli-Palestinian matters. He had nurtured a culture of anti-modernism
and anti-Americanism and had gotten away with it. Now the wind from
Washington brought tidings: The United States had wearied of Mubarak and
was willing to bet on an open political process, with all its attendant
risks and possibilities. The brave oppositional movement in Cairo that stepped forth under the banner of Kifaya! (Enough!) wanted the end of his reign. It had had enough
of his mediocrity, enough of the despotism of an aging officer who had risen out of the military bureaucracy
to entertain dynastic dreams of succession for his son. Egyptians
challenging the quiescence of an old land may have had no kind words to say
about America in the past. But they were sure that the play between them
and the regime was unfolding under George Bush’s eyes.
Unmistakably, there is in the air of the Arab world a
new contest about the possibility and the
meaning of freedom. This world had been given over to a dark nationalism
and to the atavisms of a terrible history. For decades, it had been divided
between rulers who monopolized political power and intellectual classes shut out of genuine power, forever prey to
the temptations of radicalism. Americans may
not have cared for those rulers, but we judged them as better than the
alternative. We feared the “Shia bogeyman” in Iraq and the
Islamists in Algeria, Egypt, and Tunisia; we bought the legend that Syria’s dominion in Lebanon kept the lid on anarchy.
We feared tinkering with the Saudi realm; it
was terra incognita to us, and the House of Saud seemed a surer bet than
the “wrath and virtue” of the zealots. Even Yasser Arafat, a retailer of terror, made it into our good graces as a man
who would tame the furies of the masked
men of Hamas. That bargain with authoritarianism did not work and begot us
the terrors of 9/11.
The children of Islam, and of the Arabs in
particular, had taken to the road and to terror. There were many liberal,
secular Arabs now clamoring for U.S.
intervention. The claims of sovereignty were no longer adequate; a malignant political culture
had to be “rehabilitated and placed in receivership,” a wise Jordanian observer conceded. President Bush may not
be given to excessive philosophical sophistication, but his break with
“the soft bigotry of low expectations” in the Arab-Islamic
world has found eager converts among Muslims and Arabs keen to repair their
world, to wean it from a culture of scapegoating and self-pity. Pick up the
Arabic papers today: They are curiously, and suddenly, readable. They
describe the objective world; they give voice to recognition that the world
has bypassed the Arabs. The doors have been thrown wide open and the truth
of that world laid bare. Grant Bush his due: The revolutionary message he
brought forth was the simple belief that there was no Arab and Muslim
“exceptionalism” to the appeal of liberty. For a people mired
in historical pessimism, the message of this outsider was a powerful
antidote to the culture of tyranny. Hitherto, no one had bothered to tell
the Palestinians that they can’t have terror and statehood at the same time, that the patronage of the world is
contingent on a renunciation of old ways.
This was the condition President Bush attached to his support for the
Palestinians. It is too early to tell whether the new restraint in the
Palestinian world will hold. But it was proper that Bush put Arafat beyond
the pale.
It was Iraq of course that gave impetus to this new
Arab history. And it is in Iraq that the nobility of this American
quest comes into focus. This was my fourth trip to Iraq since the fall of
the despotism and my most hopeful yet. I traveled to Baghdad, Kirkuk,
Erbil, and Suleimaniyah. A close colleague—Leslie Gelb, president
emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations—and I were there to
lecture and to “show the flag.” We met with parliamentarians and journalists, provincial legislators, clerics
and secularists alike,
Sunni and Shia Arabs, and Kurds. One memory I shall treasure: a visit to the National Assembly. From afar, there are reports of
the “acrimony” of Iraq, of the long interlude between
Iraq’s elections, on January 30, and the formation of a cabinet. But
that day, in the assembly, these concerns seemed like a quibble with
history. There was the spectacle of democracy: men and women doing
democracy’s work, women cloaked in Islamic attire right alongside more emancipated women, the technocrats, and the
tribal sheikhs, and the infectious awareness
among these people of the precious tradition bequeathed them after a
terrible history. One of the principal leaders of the Supreme Islamic Council for Revolution in Iraq, Sheikh Hamam
Hammoudi, an
elegant, thoughtful cleric in his early 50s, brushed aside the talk of a
Shia theocracy. This Shia man, who knew a
smattering of English, offered his own assurance that the example and the
power of Iran shall be kept at bay: “My English is better than my
Farsi, even though I spent 20 years in Iran.” He is proud of his
Iraqi identity, proud of being “an Arab.” He is sure that the Najaf school of Shia jurisprudence would offer its own
alternative to the worldview of Qom, across the border. He wanted no
theocratic state in Iraq; Islam, he said, would be “a source”
of legislation, but the content of politics would
be largely secular. The model, he added, with a touch of irony, would be
closer to the American mix of religion and politics than to the
uncompromising secularism of France.
The insurgents were busy with their bombs and their
plots of mayhem; Georgian troops guarded the National Assembly and
controlled access to it. But the people were taking to a new political way.
A woman garbed in black, a daughter of a distinguished Shia clerical
family, made the rounds among her fellow legislators. Religious scruples
decreed that she could not shake the hand of a male stranger. But she was
proud and wily, a free woman in a newly emancipated polity. She let me know
how much she knew about the ways and the literature of the West. American
power may have turned on its erstwhile ally, Ahmed Chalabi. But his
appearance in the assembly’s gallery drew to him parliamentarians of
every stripe. He, too, had about him the excitement of this new politics.
A lively press has sprouted in Iraq: There are an
astonishing number of newspapers and weeklies, more than 250 in all. There
are dozens of private TV channels and radio stations. Journalists and
editors speak of a press free of censorship. Admittedly, the work is hard
and dangerous, the logistics a veritable nightmare. But no single truth
claimed this country, no “big man” sucked the air out of its
public life. The insurgents will do what they are good at. But no one
really believes that those dispensers of death can turn back the clock. Among the Sunni Arabs is a growing recognition
that the past cannot be retrieved, that
it had been a big error to choose truculence and political maximalism. By a
twist of fate, the one Arab country that had seemed forever marked for
brutality and sorrow now stands poised on the frontier of a new political
world. No Iraqis I met look to neighboring Arab lands for political
inspiration: They are scorched by the terror and the insurgency, but a
better political culture is tantalizingly close.
Women want the vote in Kuwait; the Lebanese clamor
for the truth about the assassination of former prime minister Rafiq Hariri
and about the dark Syrian interlude in their history. Egyptians don’t
seem frightened of the scarecrows with which the Mubarak regime secured
their submission. Everywhere, the old order is
under attack and men and women are willing to
question the prevailing truths. There is to this moment of Arab history the feel of a re-enactment of Europe’s Revolution of
1848—the springtime of peoples. That
revolution broke out in France, then spread to the Italian states, to the German principalities,
to the remotest corners of the Austrian empire. There must have been 50 of these revolts—rebellions
of despair and of contempt. History was swift: The revolutions spread with
velocity and were turned back with equal speed. The fear of chaos dampened
those rebellions.
As I made my way on this Arab journey, I picked up a
meditation that Massimo d’Azeglio, a Piedmontese aristocrat who
embraced that “springtime” in Europe, offered about his time,
which speaks so directly to this Arab time: “The gift of liberty is
like that of a horse, handsome, strong, and high-spirited. In some it
arouses a wish to ride; in many others, on the contrary,
it increases the desire to walk.” It would be fair to say that there
are many Arabs today keen to
walk—frightened as they are by the prospect of the Islamists coming to power and curtailing personal liberties,
snuffing out freedoms gained at such great
effort and pain. But more Arabs, I hazard to guess,
now have the wish to ride. It is a powerful temptation that George W. Bush has brought to their doorstep.
This essay appeared in the Wall Street Journal on May 16, 2005. It is adapted from a talk titled “The Autumn of the Autocrats,” which was delivered at the Hoover Institution on April 24, 2005.
New from Rowman and Littlefield is Preventing Surprise Attacks: Intelligence Reform in the Wake of 9/11, by Richard A. Posner. The book is the first in the Hoover Studies in Politics,
Economics, and Society series. To order, call the National Book Network at
800.462.6420 or visit www.rowman.com.
Fouad Ajami is the Majid Khadduri Professor of Middle Eastern Studies at the School for Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University.
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