When George H. W. Bush was contemplating the removal of Saddam Hussein following the Persian Gulf War of 1991, the Saudis and Egyptians advised him not to do so. It could lead to civil war in Iraq, they argued, which would weaken the country as a bulwark against Iranian expansion in the region. Coupled with intelligence reports predicting the overthrow of Saddam by humiliated military men, the administration decided to follow its allies’ advice. Saddam was spared, Bush lost his bid for reelection, and the United States under Bill Clinton maintained a policy termed “dual containment” – degrading Iraq’s military capabilities through sanctions and air strikes while keeping Iran in the disfavored category of state sponsors of terrorism.

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