Comments, Essays, and Speeches

October 20, 2008
From Predation to Prosperity, Chapter 1
From Predation to Prosperity, Chapter 1, "Free and Not So Free to Charge: Income Redistribution and Russia's GDP Contraction, 1992-98, and Recovery, 1999-2007," consolidated, revised, and updated (Book chapter)

August 28, 2008
The Flat Tax at Work in Russia: Year Seven, 2007
The Federal Treasury of the Russian Federation has compiled the data for total taxes and revenues for the consolidated federal and regional budgets for 2006. The data show that the 13% flat tax on personal income continues to achieve very positive results.

December 13, 2007
The Flat Tax at Work in Russia: Year Six, 2006
The Federal Treasury of the Russian Federation has compiled the data for total taxes and revenues for the consolidated federal and regional budgets for 2006. The data show that the 13% flat tax on personal income continues to achieve very positive results.

September 21, 2007
Resolving Shia, Sunni, and Kurdish Claims Over Oil Revenue in Iraq
The United States, with support from the United Kingdom, invaded Iraq on March 19, 2003. The forces of Saddam Hussein were routed in a brilliant military campaign that lasted three short weeks. Toppling Saddam’s statue in central Baghdad, followed by President Bush’s talking about the “end of major combat operations when he landed on the aircraft carrier USS Lincoln on May 1, 2003, laid the foundation for a new Iraq, hopefully democratic, pro-Western, and an ally against al-Qaeda and other radical Islamic forces in the Middle East.

May 11, 2006
The Flat Tax at Work in Russia: Year Five, 2005
The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation has reported provisional data for total taxes and revenues for the consolidated federal and regional budgets for 2005.

April 13, 2006
China vs. Russia: International Bankers Run a Natural Experiment
Who would imagine international bankers running a natural experiment for us, free of charge? And yet, they did, in the mid-2000s in China and Russia.

January 10, 2006
An Accidental Illiberal Recovery: Russia, 1999–2005
This is a story of an accidental series of policy decisions with enormous consequences.

December 12, 2005
The Other Way to Win Iraq
It's economic policy. The new Iraqi government will be well positioned to implement it. Replace food rations with prepaid debit cards.

June 20, 2005
Russia Abolishes Inheritance Tax
Since July 26, 2000, numerous articles posted to this web site have chronicled Russia's adoption of the flat tax, its annual results, and other tax-rate reductions for corporations and small business.

April 25, 2005
China vs. Russia: Wealth Creation vs. Poverty Reduction
The 2005 press release of the World Trade Organization (WTO) highlights the new role China is playing in the world.

February 24, 2005
China's Economic Policy is Systemic
A terse announcement in China Daily on February 24, 2005, deserves a brief note.

January 26, 2005
The Flat Tax at Work in Russia: Year Four, 2004
On January 25, 2005, the Ministry of Taxation of the Russian Federation reported total taxes and revenues for the consolidated federal and regional budgets for 2004.

September 27, 2004
7 + 1 = 8. China Will Join the Economic Group of Seven
On October 1, 2004, on the 55th anniversary of the founding of the Communist People's Republic of China, the born-again China will effectively join the Group of Seven major industrial economies.

September 07, 2004
Cambodia joins the WTO
The world business community is the best judge of systemic economic policies because it puts its fortune, in every sense of the word, where its mouth is.

July 19, 2004
The Flat Tax at Work in Russia: Year Four, January–June 2004
The Ministry of Taxation of the Russian Federation has reported the taxes and fees collected for the period January–June 2004.

June 10, 2004
G-8. Russia or China?
With the official addition of Russia in 1998, the G-7 group of nations—the United States, United Kingdom, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, and Canada—formally became the G-8.

June 02, 2004
Beijing Consensus for Russia?
Rabushka recently returned from a visit to Hong Kong in late May where he met with business editors and economic opinion writers of leading Chinese and English newspapers and magazines.

May 25, 2004
Fixing China's Banks, Not Russia's
If a picture is worth a thousand words, what about two pictures?

April 26, 2004
The Flat Tax at Work in Russia: Year Three
On January 1, 2001, a 13% flat-rate tax on personal income took effect in Russia. (The general principles and beneficial economic effects of the flat tax appear in The Flat Tax.)

August 13, 2003
The Flat Tax at Work in Russia: Year Three, January-June 2003
The Ministry of Taxation of the Russian Federation has reported the taxes and fees collected for the period January-June 2003.

July 21, 2003
The Roller Coaster of the Russian Economy: A New Test of the Basic Mechanics
It pays not to pay your bills. The truth of this statement is self-evident in the short run only.

February 18, 2003
The Flat Tax at Work in Russia: Year Two
On January 1, 2001, a 13% flat-rate tax on personal income took effect in Russia. (On the general principles and beneficial economic effects of the flat tax, see The Flat Tax.)

January 22, 2003
Goldilocks and the Three [Russian] Bears
We all know the story of Goldilocks and the Three Bears. Papa bear's porridge was too hot, momma bear's porridge was too cold, and baby bear's porridge was just right.

January 21, 2003
Financial Sector Reform in Russia: DÉjÀ Vu All Over Again
In the beginning, when Russia and other countries emerged from the collapse of the Soviet Empire, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and scores of international advisors rushed in to establish a new field of study, of so-called "transition economies."

January 06, 2003
Russia on Auto-Pilot
Between mid-2000 and mid-2002, the Russian government was engaged in active discussion and implementation of a variety of economic policy issues.

November 18, 2002
A Tale of Two Countries
On November 14, 2002, the Chinese Communist Party wrapped up its 16^th Party Congress.

November 13, 2002
Market, Shmarket, WTO
In 2002, Western governments unleashed an inconceivable attack on the idea of the market economy.

August 12, 2002
What Real Appreciation of the Ruble? A Postscript: Is Real Depreciation Setting in?
On July 15, 2002, we posted to this site an article entitled "What Real Appreciation of the Ruble?"

July 24, 2002
Getting the Macroeconomic Balances Right? Or Achieving High Growth? Are the Two Compatible in Russia?
It is generally agreed that the chief goal of economic policy is growth. Sustained high growth increases living standards and enables the government to collect sufficient revenues to finance essential public services.

July 15, 2002
What Real Appreciation of the Ruble?
Russian government officials and economic experts argue that ongoing real appreciation of the ruble is one of the factors causing a slowdown in growth, from 9.0% in 2000, to 5.0% in 2001, to somewhere in the range of 3-4% this year.

July 10, 2002
How Much Growth is Normal? In Russia? Elsewhere?
On July 9, 2002, Dow Jones reported that Mr. Christof Ruehl, the World Bank's chief economist for Russia, told investors attending a conference on Russia that a lack of investment would constrain the economy's growth potential.

July 03, 2002
Completing Small Business Tax Reform
On July 2, 2002, the Duma, the lower house of the Russian Parliament, concluded its business prior to the start of its summer vacation.

June 06, 2002
Capital Swap à la Russe for Argentina
Recently we came across an article by Joseph Salerno, entitled "Understanding Argentina."

May 22, 2002
Tax Reform Remains High on Russia's Policy Agenda
On April, 2002, I posted to this site an article entitled "Further Extending Russia's Tax Reforms."

April 01, 2002
Further Extending Russia's Tax Reforms
The Russian government is in the process of further extending its tax reforms.

March 26, 2002
New Data Confirms the Basic Relationships in the Russian Economy: Ten Years of the New Economic System Revisited
Recent official Russia data indicate that in 2001 Russian gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5 percent.

March 11, 2002
Improving Russia's 13% Flat Tax
On February 21, 2002, I posted to this site an article entitled "The Flat Tax at Work in Russia."

February 21, 2002
The Flat Tax at Work in Russia
On March 25, 1981, I first proposed the idea of a flat tax on the editorial page of The Wall Street Journal in an article entitled "The Attractions of a Flat-Rate Tax System."

January 09, 2002
Russia's Fiscal Pattern Redux: Testing an Old Hypothesis with the New Data
Several episodes at the end of fiscal year 2001 illustrate the systemic features of Russia’s post-Communist economy.

December 04, 2001
Review of the World Bank's "Russian Economic Report, October 2001"
The World Bank is an important international organization with a substantial budget.

November 18, 2001
Fixing Russia's Banks—A Reminder
The September 17, 2001, edition of The Financial Times carried a headline story "Russia Ponders Measures to Boost Banking Sector."

November 14, 2001
Towards a New Understanding of the Russian Economy?
President Vladimir Putin's visit to Washington, D.C., and to President Bush's ranch in Crawford, Texas, for three days in mid-November 2001 has led to considerable soul searching on Russia's economic prospects and if its recent high growth can be sustained.

November 12, 2001
Bush and Putin at the Ranch
Terrorism has replaced economic and other issues as the top agenda item for the meeting between presidents Bush and Putin at the ranch.

October 13, 2001
A Russian Revival?
The lead editorial in the November 12, 2001, issue of The Wall Street Journal is entitled "A Russian Revival."

August 15, 2001
The New Protectionism at Work in Russia's Auto Industry
Protecting domestic automobile production in any country is contentious. Europe has long imposed quotas on imported Japanese cars.

July 31, 2001
The New IMF Orthodoxy for Russia Is the Old Protectionism for Africa
The IMF released its mid-year report on the Russian Federation in July 2001.

July 02, 2001
The Dutch Disease: Peter the Great's Real Legacy?
On June 29, 2001, the Russian government stated that it would soon introduce legislation to reduce the obligatory selling of foreign currency proceeds by exporters to the Central Bank from 75 to 50 percent.

June 21, 2001
Appreciating Ruble Appreciation
From time to time, it's useful to take stock of conventional wisdom on the problems and prospects of Russia's economy as reported in the main stream financial media.

May 30, 2001
The IMF, the Truth, and Russia
Professor Steve H. Hanke of The Johns Hopkins University published an important article on the editorial page of The Wall Street Journal on May 1, 2000.

May 01, 2001
The IMF, Oil, and Russian Economic Policy
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its semi-annual World Economic Outlook in May 2001.

April 25, 2001
Can More Liberal Subsidies Spur Growth and Reduce Inflation?
The question sounds absurd. Except for special cases of education and science, subsidies divert resources from more productive to less productive uses.

April 10, 2001
Two Conflicting Policies in Search of Growth
On April 3, 2001, Russian experts in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank (WB) announced that the biggest economic danger facing Russia in the near term is the real appreciation of the ruble.

April 05, 2001
The Secret oF Russian Economic Growth: Testing an Old Hypothesis with New Data
Inadvertently, the authors and the readers of this web site have become participants in a scientific experiment.

March 19, 2001
Fixing Russia’s Banks, AGAIN: A Postscript
In late February, a joint International Monetary Fund and World Bank mission arrived in Moscow to study Russia’s banking system.

March 15, 2001
Capital Flight?
For the past decade, foreign and domestic analysts of Russia’s economy have fretted over capital flight.

March 08, 2001
Is Financial Liberalization Good for Russia?
The IMF mantra consists of three legs: stabilization, liberalization, and privatization.

March 05, 2001
Fixing Russia’s Banks, Again
On February 22, 2001, a joint International Monetary Fund and World Bank mission, a team of experts who specialize in banking issues, arrived in Moscow to study Russia’s banking system.

February 22, 2001
Who's in Charge of Government Revenue: Russia's Oil Firms or the Government?
On February 16, 2001, Russia’s prime minister signed a government resolution which, one month after publication in the official Rossiskaya Gazeta newpaper, will reduce the crude oil export tax from 48 euros ($43.20) per metric ton to 22 euros ($19.80).

February 20, 2001
Too Many Dollars?
Russia’s foreign currency and gold reserves have recently hit a new post-Soviet high, officially stated at $29.5 billion as of February 2, 2001.

January 30, 2001
It’s the Dollar
Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Russian ruble has had a bumpy ride. It has suffered periodic devaluations.

January 25, 2001
The 100% Repatriation Rule: An Option for Russia
For a decade, the International Monetary Fund, supported by the U.S. Treasury, various international organizations and experts, has advised the Russian government to strengthen tax collection.

January 16, 2001
To Default or Not Default, That Is the Question.
In the first week of January 2001, the Russian government defaulted on a Deutschmark 10 million payment owed to Hermes, the German export credit guarantee group which holds much of Germany's Russian debt.

January 11, 2001
Is Russia on the Road to Recovery?
Since 1991, living standards in Russia have fallen by 47 percent.

January 10, 2001
Will the Central Bank of Russia Remain Independent?
In late December 2000 and early January 2001, a spate of stories appeared in the Western and Russian press that President Vladimir Putin was determined to overhaul Russia’s banking system.

January 04, 2001
Can Russia Grow Faster than 4 Percent? Yes, if....
On some preliminary reports, Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 7.6% in 2000, the highest in 25 years or so. Industrial production increased 9.2%.

December 04, 2000
Germany and Russia Discuss Debt for Equity Swaps
In their December 4, 2000, editions, The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times reported on a December 1, 2000, meeting in Berlin between Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder of Germany and Prime Minister Mikhail M. Kasyanov of Russia.

November 21, 2000
Fact and Fancy about Post-Communist Economic Reforms
In the October 11, 2000, edition of The Financial Times, Martin Wolf, economics columnist, wrote a review of the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook, October 2000.

October 02, 2000
Russia’s Banks Are Corrupt and Unreformed
The Moscow correspondent of The Economist, in the issue dated September 30–October 6, 2000, reported that Russia’s banks remain corrupt and unreformed.

September 21, 2000
Russia Has No Real Banks
Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov, at a meeting of the Confederation of British Industry in London on September 19, 2000, described the state of Russian banking in these words: “I could confess...we don’t have real genuine banks, practically no banks.”

September 11, 2000
How Big Are Russia's Foreign Exchange Reserves?
Russia’s foreign exchange reserves have nearly doubled from $12.5 billion in January of 2000 to $23.3 billion in August 2000.

July 26, 2000
Russia Adopts 13% Flat Tax
International organizations and experts have blamed Russia's economic woes on its failure to collect taxes. They have urged the Russian government to make tax reform a high priority.

July 01, 2000
How to Reverse the Upcoming Russian Bust
For the last two years, and until very recently, it has been common to speak of the coming Russia boom.