Nick Bloom

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Analysis and Commentary

Businesses Anticipate Slashing Postpandemic Travel Budgets

by David Altig, Jose Maria Barrero, Nick Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Brent Meyer, Emil Mihaylov, Nick Parkervia Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Tuesday, August 4, 2020

In the months (and years) following 9/11, airline travel was fundamentally altered. Despite a host of new measures to increase safety, not until April 2004 did airlines see passenger loads reach pre-9/11 levels. When thinking about how that crisis compares to the current pandemic, current and former airline execs say the current pandemic is having a much more significant impact on travel than 9/11 did. 

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Economic Uncertainty Before And During The COVID-19 Pandemic

by David Altig, Scott R. Baker, Jose Maria Barrero, Nick Bloom, Phil Bunn, Scarlet Chen, Steven J. Davis, Julia Leather, Brent Meyer, Emil Mihaylov, Paul Mizen, Nick Parker, Thomas Renault, Pawel Smietanka, Greg Thwaitesvia Bank Underground
Thursday, July 23, 2020

The unprecedented scale and nature of the COVID-19 crisis has generated an extraordinary surge in economic uncertainty. In a recent paper we review what has happened to different indicators of uncertainty in the US and UK before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Three results emerge. All of the indicators that we consider show huge jumps in uncertainty in reaction to the pandemic and its economic fallout. 

Analysis and Commentary

Economic Uncertainty Before And During The COVID-19 Pandemic

by David Altig, Scott R. Baker, Jose Maria Barrero, Nick Bloom, Phil Bunn, Scarlet Chen, Steven J. Davis, Brent Meyer, Emil Mihaylov, Paul Mizen, Nick Parker, Thomas Renault, Pawel Smietanka, Greg Thwaitesvia Becker Friedman Institute for Economics at the University of Chicago
Tuesday, June 30, 2020

Most indicators of economic uncertainty in the US and UK reached their highest values on record following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, with peaks varying among indicators and along differing timelines

COVID-19 Is Also a Reallocation Shock

by Jose Maria Barrero, Nick Bloom, Steven J. Davisvia Economics Working Papers
Thursday, June 25, 2020
Economics Working Paper 20113
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COVID-19 Is Also A Reallocation Shock

by Jose Maria Barrero, Nick Bloom, Steven J. Davisvia Brookings
Thursday, June 25, 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic is driving a massive shift in jobs and businesses—within industries, across industries, and across locations, concludes a paper to be discussed at the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity conference June 25, and government policies that impede that process could make a potentially slow and painful recovery even worse.

Economic Uncertainty Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic

by David Altig, Scott R. Baker, Jose Maria Barrero, Nick Bloom, Phil Bunn, Scarlet Chen, Steven J. Davis, Julia Leather, Brent Meyer, Emil Mihaylov, Paul Mizen, Nick Parker, Thomas Renault, Pawel Smietanka, Greg Thwaitesvia Economics Working Papers
Thursday, June 11, 2020

Economics Working Paper 20111

Analysis and Commentary

COVID-19 Is Also A Reallocation Shock

by Jose Maria Barrero, Nick Bloom, Steven J. Davisvia Becker Friedman Institute for Economics at the University of Chicago
Tuesday, May 5, 2020

Drawing on firm-level expectations at a one-year forecast horizon in the Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU), we construct novel, forward-looking reallocation measures for jobs and sales. These measures rise sharply after February 2020, reaching rates in April that are 2.4 (3.9) times the pre-COVID average for jobs (sales). 

Analysis and Commentary

U.S. Firms Foresee Intensifying Coronavirus Impact

by David Altig, Jose Maria Barrero, Nick Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Brent Meyer, Emil Mihaylov, Nick Parkervia Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Monday, May 4, 2020

In late March—even before many states had issued shelter-in-place, stay-at-home, or shutdown orders—we noted that firms were bracing for a huge negative impact on sales revenues from developments surrounding the coronavirus. 

Analysis and Commentary

COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty

by Scott R. Baker, Nick Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Stephen J. Terryvia C.D. Howe Institute
Wednesday, April 22, 2020

Major uncertainties surround almost every aspect of the COVID-19 pandemic from the virus itself to the human toll to the economic recovery.

Analysis and Commentary

COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty

by Scott R. Baker, Nick Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Stephen J. Terryvia Becker Friedman Institute for Economics at the University of Chicago
Tuesday, April 7, 2020

Assessing the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is essential for policymakers, but challenging because the crisis has unfolded with extreme speed. We identify three indicators – stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic uncertainty, and subjective uncertainty in business expectation surveys – that provide real-time forward-looking uncertainty measures.

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