China Leadership Monitor

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Wednesday, August 29, 2018

Fall 2018 Issue 57

Foreign Policy
Foreign Policy

Chinese Views on the Singapore Summit Between Donald J. Trump and Kim Jong-un

by Michael D. Swainevia China Leadership Monitor
Wednesday, August 29, 2018

Chinese observers generally view the summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un as a positive step towards denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula.

Military Affairs
Military Affairs

“Like Donkeys Slaughtered After They Are Too Old to Work a Grindstone”: PLA Veterans Protests and Party-Military Relations Under Xi Jinping

by James Mulvenonvia China Leadership Monitor
Wednesday, August 29, 2018

People’s Liberation Army (PLA) veterans are a revered and honored class in China, and the political leadership is very sensitive to perceptions of their treatment and their potential for anti-regime collective action.

Economic Policy
Economic Policy

Economic Policy under Trade War Conditions: Can China Move Beyond Tit for Tat?

by Barry Naughtonvia China Leadership Monitor
Wednesday, August 29, 2018

It has proven extremely difficult for China to deal effectively with Donald Trump’s economic agenda.  

Party Affairs
Party Affairs

Valedictory: Analyzing The Chinese Leadership In An Era Of Sex, Money, And Power

by Alice L. Millervia China Leadership Monitor
Wednesday, August 29, 2018

This article, my last as Monitor general editor and contributor, offers perspectives on the methods of analyzing Chinese leadership politics today.

E.g., 10 / 23 / 2018
E.g., 10 / 23 / 2018
Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Summer 2009: Issue 29

PRC-Tawain-United States

by Alan D. Romberg Tuesday, August 11, 2009
article

Military Affairs

by James Mulvenon Tuesday, August 11, 2009
article

Political Reform

by Joseph Fewsmith Tuesday, August 11, 2009
article

Economic Policy

by Barry Naughton Tuesday, August 11, 2009
article

Party Affairs

by Alice L. Miller Tuesday, August 11, 2009
article

The Provinces

by Cheng Li Tuesday, August 11, 2009
article
Friday, May 8, 2009

Spring 2009: Issue 28

PRC-Tawain-United States

by Alan D. Romberg Friday, May 8, 2009
article

Military Affairs

by James Mulvenon Friday, May 8, 2009
article

Political Reform

by Joseph Fewsmith Friday, May 8, 2009
article

Economic Policy

by Barry Naughton Friday, May 8, 2009
article

Party Affairs

by Alice L. Miller Friday, May 8, 2009
article

The Provinces

by Cheng Li Friday, May 8, 2009
article
Friday, January 9, 2009

Winter 2009: Issue 27

Special Topic: The Third Plenum's Rural Reforms

by Cheng Li Friday, January 9, 2009
article
by Joseph Fewsmith Friday, January 9, 2009
article

PRC-Tawain-United States

by Alan D. Romberg Friday, January 9, 2009
article

Military Affairs

by James Mulvenon Friday, January 9, 2009
article

Economic Policy

by Barry Naughton Friday, January 9, 2009
article

Party Affairs

by Alice L. Miller Friday, January 9, 2009
article
Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Fall 2008: Issue 26

PRC-Tawain-United States

by Alan D. Romberg Tuesday, September 2, 2008
article

Military Affairs

by James Mulvenon Tuesday, September 2, 2008
article

Political Reform

by Joseph Fewsmith Tuesday, September 2, 2008
article

Economic Policy

by Barry Naughton Tuesday, September 2, 2008
article

Party Affairs

by Alice L. Miller Tuesday, September 2, 2008
article

The Provinces

by Cheng Li Tuesday, September 2, 2008
article

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The Provinces

Xi Jinping’s Inner Circle—Part 3: Political Protégés from the Provinces

by Cheng Livia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Throughout the reform area, top Chinese leaders have usually risen to their positions after gaining substantial experience as provincial-level leaders. 

Great Wall of China
Party Affairs

What They Did on Their Summer Vacation

by Alice L. Millervia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, October 21, 2014

As some members of the Xi Jinping leadership retreated to the seaside summer resort at Beidaihe, several events and trends converged in anticipation of a Central Committee plenum later this fall.  

Economic Policy

It’s All in the Execution: Struggling with the Reform Agenda

by Barry Naughtonvia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, October 21, 2014

China’s authoritative leadership small groups have met and struggled to define priorities within China’s broad reform agenda.  

Beijing, China
Military Affairs

Lawyers, Guns and Money: The Coming Show Trial of General Xu Caihou

by James Mulvenonvia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, October 21, 2014

On 30 June 2014, the Chinese Communist Party expelled former Politburo member and Central Military Commission vice-chair Xu Caihou for corruption following a three-month investigation. 

China-Taiwan-United States

Cross-Strait Relations: Portrayals of Consistency: Calm on the Surface, Paddling Like Hell Underneath

by Alan D. Rombergvia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, October 21, 2014

While in reality adjusting to an evolving situation both on Taiwan and in cross-Strait relations over the past few months, all parties have sought to portray their approaches as consistent and undisturbed by “some situations” that could have thrown things off course.

Foreign Policy

Xi Jinping’s Trip to Latin America

by Michael D. Swainevia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Xi Jinping’s 10-day trip to Latin America in July 2014 constitutes an important milestone in the development of China-Latin America relations, marking the first major visit to this increasingly important region for a top Chinese leader since the extensive trip taken by Hu Jintao in 2004.  

The Provinces

Xi Jinping’s Inner Circle (Part 2: Friends from Xi’s Formative Years)

by Cheng Livia China Leadership Monitor
Monday, July 28, 2014

The dominance of Jiang Zemin’s political allies in the current Politburo Standing Committee has enabled Xi Jinping, who is a protégé of Jiang, to pursue an ambitious reform agenda during his first term. The effectiveness of Xi’s policies and the political legacy of his leadership, however, will depend significantly on the political positioning of Xi’s own protégés, both now and during his second term.  This second article in a series examines Xi’s longtime friends—the political confidants Xi met during his formative years and with whom he has remained close over the past several decades.

Party Affairs

More Already on the Central Committee’s Leading Small Groups

by Alice L. Millervia China Leadership Monitor
Monday, July 28, 2014

The Xi Jinping leadership has substantially revised the array of top-level leading small groups that prevailed under the Hu Jintao leadership.  In doing so the Xi leadership has unveiled aspects of the groups’ role in the policymaking and policy implementation, their leadership, and their varieties in the broader political order.  Although much about these informal groups remains obscure, the steps toward transparency shed new light on the leadership’s policy processes.

Wuhan, China
Economic Policy

‘Deepening Reform’: The Organization and the Emerging Strategy

by Barry Naughtonvia China Leadership Monitor
Monday, July 28, 2014

The Chinese leadership has set up an elaborate top-level apparatus to advance the reforms announced at last year’s Third Plenum.  This apparatus extends down to local governments and strongly incentivizes local governments to push forward with local reforms as well.  However, these reforms are still not well defined, and specific guidance from the top level has lagged behind the creation of “reform leading groups.”  The resulting pattern is one of broad movement but relatively slow delivery of actual reform measures.  As proposals percolate up from below and “top-level designs” are further fleshed out, we can anticipate an additional protracted stage of bargaining, conflict, and slow consensus-building.  Important reforms will emerge over the next few years, but there are also risks that irreconcilable conflicts may emerge or that botched reforms may incite a backlash.

Military Affairs

Groupthink? PLA Leading Small Groups and the Prospect for Real Reform and Change in the Chinese Military

by James Mulvenonvia China Leadership Monitor
Monday, July 28, 2014

As a result of the 18th Party Congress and its subsequent plenums, especially the Third Plenum in the fall of 2013, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army has embarked on a broad set of institutional reforms, tackling training, political work, command and control, and corruption among others. These reform efforts fall under the purview of newly established “leading groups,” led by senior officials in the relevant offices. This article examines the personnel and institutional makeup of these new groups, outlines their declared and undeclared missions, and assesses the probability of their success.

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The China Leadership Monitor seeks to inform the American foreign policy community about current trends in China's leadership politics and in its foreign and domestic policies. The Monitor proceeds on the premise that as China's importance in international affairs grows, American policy-makers and the broader policy-interested public increasingly need analysis of politics among China's leadership that is accurate, comprehensive, systematic, current, and relevant to major areas of interest to the United States.

China Leadership Monitor analysis rests heavily on traditional China-watching methods of interpreting information in China's state-controlled media. Use of these methods was once universal among specialists in contemporary Chinese affairs. Although the use of these methods has declined as opportunities to study China using other approaches have opened up in recent decades, their value in following politics among China's top leadership has not. Monitor analysis also brings to bear some of the new avenues of information and insight that have opened up since the normalization of U.S.-China relations and China's policy "opening to the outside world" in the late 1970s.

The China Leadership Monitor website is updated with new analyses quarterly.

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The China Leadership Monitor is sponsored by the Hoover Institution on War, Revolution, and Peace at Stanford University. Its general editor is Hoover Institution research fellow Alice Miller.