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The Numbers GameFeatured

Do The Rich Get All The Gains?

by Russ Robertsvia PolicyEd
Tuesday, May 7, 2019

Has economic progress in America been shared widely or captured by only the rich? The standard story of stagnating wages takes snapshots of one set of people in the past and compares them to an entirely different set of people in the present. But when you follow the same people over time, it becomes clear that the poor and the middle class are prospering, often gaining more than the richest Americans.

Mind the Productivity Gap to Reduce Inequality: What's Behind the Numbers?

via Analysis
Tuesday, May 7, 2019

This is the statistical backup for the statements Edward P. Lazear made in the May 6, 2019 The Wall Street Journal op-ed Mind the Productivity Gap to Reduce Inequality." Click here to see What's Behind the Numbers?.

In the News

Will Any Of The Proposed Fed Frameworks Improve Policy?

mentioning Hoover Institutionvia The Bond Buyer
Monday, May 6, 2019

Change is always difficult, and the Federal Reserve’s attempt to find a better monetary policy framework is no exception. Based on comments by Fed officials at the Hoover Institution conference on Friday, ahead of a confab at the Chicago Fed next month, it seems there may not be a perfect framework, making it difficult to move from the current inflation targeting system.

In the News

Why A 60-65% Market Loss Would Be Run-Of-The-Mill

quoting Thomas J. Sargentvia Seeking Alpha
Monday, May 6, 2019

From September 3, 1929, to July 8, 1932, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by -89.2%, though certainly not in one fell-swoop. In fact, the decline known as the "1929 Crash" took the Dow down by an initial -47.9%, setting a trough on November 13, 1929. That initial decline was followed by a 48.0% recovery that peaked on April 17, 1930, leaving the Dow still -22.9% below its bull market high, because that's how compounding works. By the 1932-low, the Dow had plunged -86.0% below its April 1930 peak, and -79.3% below even the "bottom" it set in November 1929 after losing nearly half of its value.

Interviews

Economist John Taylor: Interest Rates Should Go To Around Three Percent

interview with John B. Taylorvia Yahoo Finance
Monday, May 6, 2019

John Taylor discusses interest rates, Fed policy, and the outlook for the US. Taylor notes he likes the direction the Fed is taking towards a more rules based monetary policy.

Federal Reserve
Analysis and Commentary

Alan Reynolds Catches Shoddy Reporting About Federal Reserve Survey

by David R. Hendersonvia EconLog
Monday, May 6, 2019

My guess is that you’ve heard that famous result from a recent Federal Reserve survey of Americans: Four in 10 adults in 2017 would either borrow, sell something, or not be able pay if faced with a $400 emergency expense. That’s the exact wording of the Federal Reserve Board’s report of the results of its survey.

Analysis and Commentary

Have Coase - Will Travel

by David R. Hendersonvia EconLog
Monday, May 6, 2019

Coase’s paper “The Problem of Social Cost” appeared in the October 1960 volume of the Journal of Law and Economics. This brings us, for reasons that we will explain, to the television show Have Gun – Will Travel, which aired from 1957 to 1963. A particular 1958 episode, called “Bitter Wine,” is likely the most Coasean episode of television ever made. Every element of the “Problem of Social Cost” makes an appearance in the episode: the reciprocal nature of externalities, how the initial allocation of property rights matters in a world with transaction costs, and how the legal system can overcome transaction costs to allow for an efficient allocation of rights.

Featured

Mind The Productivity Gap To Reduce Inequality

by Edward Paul Lazearvia The Wall Street Journal
Monday, May 6, 2019

How are American workers doing? Neither the middle class nor the poor have fared well in recent decades—but don’t blame tax cuts, a too-low minimum wage or the greed of the 1%. In rich countries around the world, the top half of the income distribution has been pulling away from the bottom half. Productivity growth among high-wage workers, driven by technological change, is the reason. 

In the News

Defenders Of Capitalism Agree With The Left On Society's Problems. On The Solutions — Not So Much

quoting Niall Fergusonvia CNN
Sunday, May 5, 2019

The Milken Institute Global Conference, the annual talkfest for the financial elite at a posh hotel in Beverly Hills, is usually shot through with references to lifting up the downtrodden and making capital work for the common good. This year, however — perhaps brought on by the election of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and the increasingly leftist tenor of the 2020 Democratic presidential field — there was also a hint of panic.

Interviews

Fed's 2 Percent Inflation Target Is 'Fine,' John Taylor Says

interview with John B. Taylorvia Bloomberg
Friday, May 3, 2019

Hoover Institution fellow John Taylor discusses the state of monetary policy.

Pages

Economic Policy Working Group

 
The Working Group on Economic Policy brings together experts on economic and financial policy to study key developments in the U.S. and global economies, examine their interactions, and develop specific policy proposals.

Milton and Rose Friedman: An Uncommon Couple