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Our Currency, Your Problem

by Niall Fergusonvia Hoover Digest
Saturday, April 30, 2005

How long can the Chinese go on financing America’s deficit spending? The answer may be a lot longer than the dollar pessimists expect. By Niall Ferguson.

Foreign Policy

Old Problems Trump New Thinking: China's Security Relations with Taiwan, North Korea, and Japan

by Thomas Christensenvia China Leadership Monitor
Saturday, April 30, 2005

Recent months have hardly been proud ones for People's Republic of China (PRC) security policy. On diplomatic policies toward Taiwan, Japan, and North Korea, respectively, Beijing has appeared bullying, emotional, and ineffective. Given the widely negative reaction to the passage of an antisecession law, it remains to be seen whether recent trips by Taiwan's opposition party leaders to the mainland in April and May will improve relations across the Strait or will polarize Taiwan politics and destabilize cross-Strait relations. With respect to Japan, government inactivity in the face of acts of vandalism and racist sloganeering on the streets of its major cities seemingly contradicts the PRC's effort to put a smiling face on a rising China. On North Korea policy, Beijing either has decided to live with a nuclear Pyongyang or, more likely, has simply been ineffective in trying to lure the Democratic People's Republic of Korea back to the six-party talks. These outcomes do not match the Chinese Communist Party's self-styled image as a peaceful, responsible, and constructive rising power.

Political Reform

China under Hu Jintao

by Joseph Fewsmithvia China Leadership Monitor
Saturday, April 30, 2005

Contrary to hopes expressed by both Chinese intellectuals and foreign observers that the new Hu Jintao administration would be more open to political change and to freer expression of ideas, Hu's government has backed away from some of the tolerance that existed (though insufficiently) under Jiang Zemin. While Jiang Zemin did not shy away from criticizing presumed Western efforts to "divide" and "Westernize" China, the Hu administration has actively backed a campaign to criticize "neoliberalism" and has cracked down on the expression of liberal opinion. For the moment at least, Hu seems determined to address the problems facing China by strengthening the Chinese Communist Party rather than adjusting the relationship between the party and society through greater openness.

Economic Policy

SASAC Rising

by Barry Naughtonvia China Leadership Monitor
Saturday, April 30, 2005

During April and May 2005, new policies were put in place to address some of the most contentious, long-running economic issues in China. Although the initial policy moves were modest, the way they played out illuminates the process of policymaking in China today, in particular the large and growing role of the State Asset Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC). On balance, these changes have brought the SASAC to a substantially more important and powerful position in the Chinese economy.

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Enigma in Beijing

by Thomas A. Metzgervia Hoover Digest
Saturday, April 30, 2005

China may have embraced capitalism with enormous zeal—but it remains unlikely to embrace American-style democracy anytime soon. By Thomas A. Metzger.

Party Affairs

National People's Congress Completes Jiang-Hu Succession

by Alice L. Millervia China Leadership Monitor
Saturday, April 30, 2005

At its annual meeting in March 2005, China's parliament formally transferred former top leader Jiang Zemin's last official post to his successor Hu Jintao. The transfer completes an unprecedented process of orderly leadership succession that began two and a half years ago. Since the National People's Congress, Jiang has assumed a nearly invisible public posture consistent with those of other retired elders among the Chinese leadership. Meanwhile, Hu has been depicted as moving carefully in new policy directions while maintaining continuity with the policies associated with Jiang Zemin.

Military Affairs

Power, Money, and Sex: The PLA and the Educational Campaign to Maintain the Advanced Nature of the Party

by James Mulvenonvia China Leadership Monitor
Saturday, April 30, 2005

In the course of consolidating his leadership, Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Hu Jintao has moved to put his personal stamp on the content of political work in the party and in the army. The main theme calls for maintaining the "advanced nature" of all party members, particularly those in the military. Based on the principle that the party's "advanced nature" derives from the party's "historic tasks for different periods," the current focus is on implementing "Jiang Zemin's thoughts on national defense and army construction," speeding up "military reform with Chinese characteristics," preparing for "military struggle," shouldering the "historic mission," "fighting to win," "resisting degeneration," and improving "the fighting capability of the army in the information era." This article explores each of these themes, providing textual exegesis of their probable meanings and assessing their implications for civil-military relations.

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Analysis and Commentary

China vs. Russia: Wealth Creation vs. Poverty Reduction

by Michael S. Bernstam, Alvin Rabushkavia russianeconomy.org
Monday, April 25, 2005

The 2005 press release of the World Trade Organization (WTO) highlights the new role China is playing in the world.

Figure 1. China: Non-performing loans, 2001-2004

China's Economic Policy is Systemic

by Michael S. Bernstam, Alvin Rabushka
Thursday, February 24, 2005

A terse announcement in China Daily on February 24, 2005, deserves a brief note.

The Provinces

New Provincial Chiefs: Hu's Groundwork for the 17th Party Congress

by Cheng Livia China Leadership Monitor
Sunday, January 30, 2005

Understanding the kinds of leaders Hu Jintao currently promotes reveals the political and policy objectives he will most likely pursue in the future. Throughout 2004, especially after Hu consolidated his power at the Fourth Plenum of the 16th Central Committee in September, China's provincial leadership underwent a major reshuffling. Most of the newly appointed provincial leaders advanced their political careers primarily through the Chinese Communist Youth League (CCYL), received postgraduate education (usually in economics and management), and were leaders in less developed inland provinces. Their recent promotions are attributable not only to their political ties with Hu, but also to the fact that they share Hu's populist vision for China's development. Some of these provincial chiefs will be Hu's nominees for Politburo seats at the next party congress, as well as part of Hu's team to carry out political reform and socioeconomic policies in line with his perceived mandate.

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