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The Provinces

Cooling Shanghai Fever: Macroeconomic Control and Its Geopolitical Implications

by Cheng Livia China Leadership Monitor
Saturday, October 30, 2004

It is often said that politics is about who gets what, when, and how. Since early 2004, Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao have adopted a macroeconomic control policy to limit bank lending, land use, and fixed-asset investment. They have acknowledged explicitly that this policy does not treat all sectors and provinces in the same way. While allocating resources to support the agriculture, energy, transportation, and social welfare sectors, especially in the less-developed western and northeastern regions, Hu and Wen have strived to cool off the decade-long construction fever in Shanghai and the Yangtze River Delta. The fact that the central government can say "no" to Jiang Zemin's turf suggests that Hu and Wen have begun to take the offensive. Through macroeconomic adjustments and geopolitical coalition-building, Hu and Wen have consolidated their power. However, given China's daunting challenges, only time will tell whether the Hu-Wen administration can achieve a soft landing politically as well as economically.

Political Reform

Pressures for Expanding Local-Level Democracy

by Joseph Fewsmithvia China Leadership Monitor
Saturday, October 30, 2004

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has faced numerous pressures in recent years to reform its governing practices, particularly at the local level where these practices directly affect the lives of citizens. Despite years of campaigning against it, corruption continues to get worse at local levels, where abuse of power by officials has inflamed relations with the citizenry, and where there seems to be a palpable need to enhance the legitimacy of local officials. Village-level elections were introduced in China in the late 1980s to respond to these needs, but they also created new problems. Local party secretaries clashed regularly with village heads, and township cadres resented newly assertive village leaders. Moreover, the electoral process stalled as efforts to promote it at the township level met resistance. In recent months, however, there have been new and expanded experiments with local democracy that enhance the importance of local people's congresses, open up the electoral process, and use elections for the selection of local cadres. Importantly, these experiments are not limited to the village level, but are taking place at the township and sometimes county levels. These innovations may not augur looming democratization, but they do reflect a response to increased pressures to cope with the problems of local governance.

Foreign Policy

The Rise and Descent of "Peaceful Rise"

by Robert L. Suettingervia China Leadership Monitor
Saturday, October 30, 2004

A controversial formulation about China's emerging global role and responsibilities appears to have been set aside, in part as a result of leadership disagreements. The idea of China's "peaceful rise" (heping jueqi) as a responsible and benign global power was introduced into China's foreign policy discourse by Party General Secretary Hu Jintao associate Zheng Bijian in November 2003. It caught the interest of many Chinese foreign affairs specialists, becoming the subject of intense and surprisingly open debate. Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao both used the formulation in speeches in December 2003, suggesting that the idea had become an authoritative component of Chinese foreign policy statements. But Jiang Zemin and some members of the Politburo Standing Committee are rumored to have raised objections, and the leadership is said to have decided in April 2004 to drop the formulation in public statements. The concept itself has not been anathematized, however, and it remains the subject of academic debate in China. Still, it has lost much of its policy salience and some of its intellectual luster, a casualty of China's more open scholarly environment, the omnipresent Taiwan issue, and leadership jealousies.

The Persistence of North Korea

by Nicholas Eberstadtvia Policy Review
Friday, October 1, 2004

What has been keeping Pyongyang afloat?

7 + 1 = 8. China Will Join the Economic Group of Seven

by Michael S. Bernstam, Alvin Rabushka
Monday, September 27, 2004

On October 1, 2004, on the 55th anniversary of the founding of the Communist People's Republic of China, the born-again China will effectively join the Group of Seven major industrial economies.

Political Reform

Promoting the Scientific Development Concept

by Joseph Fewsmithvia China Leadership Monitor
Friday, July 30, 2004

For the past nine months, party General Secretary Hu Jintao and other leaders have been promoting a new economic approach that they call the "scientific development concept." This approach aims to correct what they describe as an overemphasis in recent years on increasing gross domestic product (GDP), which encourages the generation of false figures and dubious construction projects while neglecting the social welfare of those left behind in the hinterland. Advertised as a "people-centered" approach to development, the scientific development concept has been extended to leadership practices in general, including the recruitment of talent and the administration of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Leaders associated with former party General Secretary Jiang Zemin, such as Secretariat head Zeng Qinghong, have endorsed the scientific development concept, but Zeng in particular has appeared to demur at some of its central notions. At a minimum, this divergence underscores the difficulty of defining "social development" as opposed to "mere" economic development; at a maximum, it suggests continuing tensions within the leadership.

Economic Policy

Hunkering Down: The Wen Jiabao Administration and Macroeconomic Recontrol

by Barry Naughtonvia China Leadership Monitor
Friday, July 30, 2004

On April 26, 2004, the Standing Committee of the Politburo agreed to strengthen contractionary macroeconomic policies dramatically and to apply administrative controls over investment and land use. Within days, the State Development and Reform Commission (SDRC)—the former State Planning Commission—issued an urgent directive ordering the suspension and reinspection of thousands of investment projects. These steps represent a dramatic reorientation of Chinese macroeconomic policy. They have a significant political impact, bringing new leaders into the core of the economic decision-making process and shifting economic policy in a conservative direction. If not an outright step backward, these measures also indicate that economic policy approaches in place through the first year of the administration of Premier Wen Jiabao have failed to achieve their objectives. This piece describes the most important policy measures instituted; traces these measures' political implications, and assesses their economic implications.

The Provinces

Bringing China's Best and Brightest Back Home:

by Cheng Livia China Leadership Monitor
Friday, July 30, 2004

The Chinese leadership recently adopted a "strategy of strengthening China through human capital" with the goal of enhancing the country's international competitiveness in higher education. Largely because of new policy incentives implemented by the government, China has witnessed a tidal wave of foreign-educated Chinese returning to their native country since 2000. A quarter-century-long effort to train China's best and brightest overseas now seems to have come to fruition. These new developments, however, may also intensify political tensions between coastal and inland regions within the country and between foreign-educated and locally educated elites. China's well-funded universities, where foreign-educated returnees already predominate, are disproportionately located in a few coastal cities. This increasingly uneven distribution of human capital presents a major challenge for the Chinese leadership as it strives to achieve more-balanced regional development.

Military Affairs

Your Guess Is As Good As Mine: PLA Budgets, Proposals, and Discussions at the Second Session of the 10th National People's Congress

by James Mulvenonvia China Leadership Monitor
Friday, July 30, 2004

For observers of People's Liberation Army (PLA) politics and civilian-military relations, annual sessions of China's parliament—the National People's Congress (NPC)—are interesting for three main reasons. First, the session reviews the government's annual budget, which includes official figures for defense spending. These figures, with significant caveats, indicate the pace and scope of military modernization—as well as the relative political weight of the PLA. Second, roughly one-tenth of all delegates to the NPC are active-duty military officers, and their discussions (often complaints) in plenary sessions are useful markers of intramilitary concerns. Third, the NPC often passes military-related regulations, which sometimes reveal institutional or doctrinal trends in the armed forces. From that perspective, the second session of the 10th NPC in March 2004 is notable for restoring double-digit increases in the defense budget and for giving new guidance on military modernization and management of the army. Also notable was the absence of any visible civil-military split like the "two centers" debate from the NPC in March 2003.

Foreign Policy

Leadership Policy toward Taiwan and the United States in the Wake of Chen Shui-bian's Reelection

by Robert L. Suettingervia China Leadership Monitor
Friday, July 30, 2004

It is hardly surprising that the People's Republic of China (PRC) reacted negatively to the reelection of Chen Shui-bian as president of the Republic of China (ROC) on Taiwan. Leading up to the March 20, 2004, election, Beijing adopted a careful, low-key approach, in contrast to its missile launches in 1996 and its shrill threats in 2000. But there was little doubt that it hoped Chen would be defeated by the pan-blue coalition of the Kuomintang (KMT) and People First Party (PFP). In the run-up to Chen's victory, Beijing had once again failed to influence events in Taiwan. Still, the narrow margin of victory, the recount, the court challenge, and hopes that Chen might adopt an accommodating stance on cross-Strait relations in his May 20 inauguration speech all apparently combined to stay Beijing's hand. Now that Chen's speech has been delivered, assessed, and found wanting, however, high-level officials, media commentators, and "track two" scholars are pressing a harsher, more confrontational line. The revised approach will have consequences both for China's relations with the United States and perhaps on the domestic front as well.

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