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Foreign Policy

Beijing's Views of Taiwan and the United States in 2002: The Renaissance of Pessimism

by Thomas Christensenvia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, July 30, 2002

This essay addresses the decline in Beijing's optimism about cross-Strait relations following the December 2001 Legislative Yuan election in Taiwan and how that shift may affect Beijing's views toward a range of security issues. In this context, the essay assesses Beijing's rising concerns about Washington's posture toward cross-Strait relations in the wake of President Bush's trip to China in February and Beijing's increasingly critical posture toward the American war on terrorism and U.S. security policies in general.

Military Affairs

Wang Ke: A Political Biography

by James Mulvenonvia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, July 30, 2002

Wang Ke was born Wang Maoqing in August 1931 in Xiaoxian County, Jiangsu Province (later Anhui Province). In the early 1940s, this part of Jiangsu became an operating base for the New Fourth Army. With only an elementary school education, Wang joined the local unit of the New Fourth Army as a “young soldier” at the age of 13, serving as a communicator for the armed working team of Xiaoxian County. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) commander of the local military subdistrict was Zhang Zhen, a future top People’s Liberation Army (PLA) officer and powerful patron for Wang for the remainder of his career. Wang was reportedly personally trained by Zhang, who sent him first for additional education and tactics instruction.

Political Reform

The Politics of the Stock Market

by Barry Naughtonvia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, July 30, 2002

Although economic policy is not the focus of current ideological debates, economic issues are still highly politicized in China, and economic policy questions will affect the leadership succession in numerous ways. For the past two years, China's stock markets have been the locus of contention among various factions of China's elite. This article looks at some of the issues the operation of China's stock markets has raised in Chinese leadership politics.

Military Affairs

The 2002 National People's Congress Session and the Chinese Army: Budgets, Personnel, and Regulations

by James Mulvenonvia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, July 30, 2002

The annual session of the National People's Congress held in March addressed concerns of the Chinese People's Liberation Army in three important areas. First, its announcement of the year's defense allocations within the larger state budget sheds light on the pace and scope of China's military modernization effort. Second, roughly ten percent of the delegates to the People's Congress and media attention to their deliberations provides insight into ongoing military issues. Last, the session adopted new regulations that illuminate institutional and doctrinal trends in China's military.

The Provinces

Hu's Followers: Provincial Leaders with Background in the Communist Youth League

by Cheng Livia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, July 30, 2002

Hu Jintao's succession to Jiang Zemin as party chief is beyond doubt. The important question is whether Hu can effectively run the political apparatus of the most populous nation in the world. Crucial to assessing Hu's political future is an analysis of the political networks he has formed. Although Hu is not seen as a leader active in building patron-client ties in the party, he is nevertheless well-connected in the three most important institutions of elite recruitment in China today—Qinghua University, the Communist Youth League, and the Central Party School.

Party Affairs

Beijing Blunts Intra-Party Dissent in Preparing for Sixteenth Party Congress

by Alice L. Millervia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, July 30, 2002

In anticipation of the party's Sixteenth National Congress this fall, Beijing has since the beginning of the year waged a massive campaign to overcome opposition to new political reforms intended to broaden the base of the Chinese Communist Party. At the congress, the central leadership seeks to lay the ideological foundations for the reforms by incorporating General Secretary Jiang Zemin's theme of the "three represents" into the party constitution. Judging by the scale of Beijing's campaign in recent months, intra-party resistance to these changes must be pervasive.

The Provinces

The "Shanghai Gang": Force for Stability or Cause for Conflict?

by Cheng Livia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, April 30, 2002

Of all the issues enmeshed in China's on-going political succession, one of the most intriguing concerns the prospects of the so-called "Shanghai gang" associated with party leader Jiang Zemin. The future of the "Shanghai gang" will determine whether Jiang will continue to play a behind-the-scenes role as China's paramount leader after retiring as party general secretary at the Sixteenth Party Congress in the fall of 2002. More importantly, contention over the future of the "Shanghai gang" constitutes a critical test of whether China can manage a smooth political succession, resulting in a more collective and power-sharing top leadership.

Political Reform

Rethinking the Role of the CCP: Explicating Jiang Zemin's Party Anniversary Speech

by Joseph Fewsmithvia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, April 30, 2002

After Jiang Zemin delivered his groundbreaking speech on the communist party's anniversary last summer, there was much speculation about the strength of his political position and controversy over the meaning of the speech itself. Close examination of authoritative commentary, however, suggests that the speech has received strong support within the party and represents far more than the general secretary's personal views. Moreover, articles by party theoreticians based at the Central Party School indicate that Jiang's speech was intended to convey a program of wide-ranging political reform, albeit not one of democratization. This program of political reform is intended to meet the domestic and international challenges facing the party and to make the exercise of power in China better institutionalized and more stable.

Economic Policy

Selling Down the State Share: Contested Policy, New Rules

by Barry Naughtonvia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, April 30, 2002

Since the middle of 2001, the issue of reducing the government ownership stake in corporations listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges has been high profile and highly contentious. This issue touches on many fundamental problems relating to the future of China's economic reforms, including the public ownership system, the development of capital markets, and the long-term social security of China's aging population. The twists and turns in Beijing's approach to this issue in recent months illuminates evolving decision-making processes and sheds light on the continuing role of Premier Zhu Rongji.

Foreign Policy

Terrorism, Taiwan Elections, and Tattered Treaties: PRC Security Politics From September 11 Through Year's End

by Thomas Christensenvia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, April 30, 2002

This essay addresses three important issues in Beijing's security policy since early September. First, and most obvious, is the September 11 attack on America and the newfound spirit of U.S.-China cooperation that arose from that atrocious event. Second are trends in the mainland's relations with Taiwan in the weeks surrounding the December 2001 Legislative Yuan elections, in which President Chen Shui-bian's Party, the DPP, did surprisingly well despite the economic recession on Taiwan. Third are arms control issues surrounding President Bush's announcement of Washington's impending unilateral withdrawal from the ABM Treaty.

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