Rising Policy Uncertainty

Thursday, September 5, 2019

Economics Working Paper 19110

Abstract: I review evidence of rising policy uncertainty in the U.S. and global economies, drawing heavily on newspaper-based measures. Examples from countries around the world illustrate the role of political and policy developments as drivers of fluctuations in economic uncertainty. I also highlight the prominent role of trade policy as a source of uncertainty and stock market volatility since March 2018, when U.S.-China tensions began to escalate. Lastly, I offer remarks on the interplay between policy uncertainty and economic performance.

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