National political conventions are filled with things Americans love—stirring music, rousing speeches, balloons, banners, talk of greatness and solidarity. They also used to be filled with surprises: In 1880, Republicans expected to nominate either former president Ulysses S. Grant or his biggest rival, Sen. James Blaine. 

If there’s one thing everyone can agree on about this year’s election, it’s that the rise of Donald Trump has completely flipped the conventional political script.

With voters divided between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton on perennial top issues such as the economy and national security, undecided and unmotivated swing voters in this close campaign between candidates with high unfavorable ratings will increasingly be targeted through narrower wedge issues such as race, abortion, gun control and climate change, according to researchers.

The conventional wisdom in political science right now is that "true" independents are rare. Many people may call themselves independents, the argument goes, but almost all of them are really "closet partisans" who are effectively attached to one party or the other; they just prefer, for whatever psychological reason, to think of themselves as nonaligned.

Independent voters get no respect. But they cannot be ignored. They are the swing vote that solidifies winning coalitions. And this year, they’re surfing a negative wave.

Congressional races tend to get second-billing during presidential election years; however the contests for the House and Senate on November 8 will be pivotal in shaping the political, economic and moral future of the United States.

Democrats are asking, “How could this have happened?” But to millions of Americans who feel that the system isn’t working for them, who haven’t been part of the nation’s economic recovery, who think Washington doesn’t listen to them, it was something that needed to happen.

Forget Paul Bunyan. There’s a bigger American myth that needs to be busted, and you know it all too well: America is divided. Pick a tribe. Stop thinking.

Conventional wisdom about presidential campaign strategy changed around the turn of the current century. Traditionally, candidates were advised to move to the center in the general election campaign after catering to the party bases in the primaries. Not anymore. George W. Bush’s two presidential campaigns exemplify the shift.