Taiwan: Will China Make Its Move?

In a new episode of China Considered, Elizabeth Economy sits down with Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, to assess why tension in the Taiwan Strait is markedly higher than it was a decade ago. Glaser lays out Xi Jinping’s strategy for making progress toward unification without firing a shot—military pressure, psychological warfare, efforts to divide Taiwan politically, and legal and diplomatic moves that erode its sovereignty—and explains why sweeping purges of the PLA and the steep costs of an invasion weigh against the use of force. The two discuss how the Chinese public views a war over Taiwan, the progress and gaps in Taiwan’s defense reforms and civilian resilience, and why Beijing’s interest in semiconductor chip foundry TSMC is not what drives its decisions. Glaser also reflects on why her research has drawn fire from both sides of the Strait, then assesses the second Trump administration’s approach to Taiwan and US allies and what depleted US munitions stockpiles mean for deterrence. They close with her recommendation of Steve Tsang and Olivia Cheung’s China’s Global Strategy under Xi Jinping and her answer to the question posed by her book, US-Taiwan Relations: Will China’s Challenge Lead to a Crisis

Recorded on October 16, 2026.

ABOUT THE GUEST

Bonnie S. Glaser is managing director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF), which she joined in 2021. One of the leading US analysts of Chinese foreign and security policy, cross-Strait relations, and US policy in Asia, she also hosts GMF’s China Global podcast.

Glaser is the co-author, with Ryan Hass and Richard C. Bush, of U.S.-Taiwan Relations: Will China’s Challenge Lead to a Crisis? (Brookings Institution Press, 2023). Before joining GMF, she spent nearly two decades at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, most recently as senior adviser for Asia and founding director of the China Power Project. She is a nonresident fellow at the Lowy Institute and a senior associate with Pacific Forum, and has consulted for US government agencies, including the Departments of Defense and State. She holds a master’s degree from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

RELATED SOURCES

• Bonnie S. Glaser’s GMF profile and research
• Ryan Hass, Bonnie S. Glaser, and Richard C. Bush, U.S.-Taiwan Relations: Will China’s Challenge Lead to a Crisis? (Brookings Institution Press, 2023). 
• Amanda Hsiao and Bonnie S. Glaser, “Why China Waits” (Foreign Affairs, May 2026). The article Glaser cites on Beijing’s belief that time is on its side.
• Bonnie S. Glaser and Amanda Hsiao, “Taiwan’s Push for Societal Resilience” (GMF, February 2026). Glaser’s progress report on Taiwan’s whole-of-society defense resilience program, which she discusses in the episode.
• Nick Zeller, Renard Sexton, and Yawei Liu, “Chinese Public Ambivalent on Use of Force Against Taiwan” (China Pulse, The Carter Center and Emory University, March 2026). The survey Glaser cites on Chinese public opinion.
• Glaser’s GMF reports on UN General Assembly Resolution 2758: “The Distortion of UN Resolution 2758 and Limits on Taiwan’s Access to the United Nations” (with Jessica Drun, March 2022) and “Exposing the PRC’s Distortion of UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 to Press Its Claim Over Taiwan” (with Jacques deLisle, April 2024).
• Bonnie S. Glaser, Jessica Chen Weiss, and Thomas J. Christensen, “Taiwan and the True Sources of Deterrence” (Foreign Affairs, January/February 2024). The article on reassurance and deterrence that Glaser discusses.
• Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park, “Rebuilding U.S. Missile Inventory: A Multiyear Project” (CSIS, May 2026). The analysis Glaser cites on replenishing munitions used in the Iran war.
• Glaser’s book recommendation: Steve Tsang and Olivia Cheung, China’s Global Strategy under Xi Jinping (Oxford University Press, 2026). Publisher link.
• Related episode: China’s Generals, Purges and Power Plays with Bonny Lin (China Considered, November 25, 2025).