When stronger nations behave as if they're unlikely to respond to aggression, tragic consequences often follow.
This is why it’s imperative to understand that deterrence requires more than just military might. For deterrence to effectively prevent conflict, it also requires the willingness to use that might.
There is no greater example of this than the Second World War.
From the beginning, it was abundantly clear that the Allied nations - led by the United States, Great Britain, and the Soviet Union, were stronger than the Axis powers of Germany, Japan, and Italy. They had over 3 times the industrial capacity of the Axis powers, and had superior weaponry on land, sea, and in the air.
But despite their obvious power, the Allies projected weakness and timidity from the outset. As German tanks rolled through Eastern Europe, the allies were declaring "peace for our time." And their lack of resolve sent a clear signal - the Axis powers could continue their military conquests, and the Allies would not intervene.
It was only after years of bloodshed that all sides could agree on who was stronger.
The devastating reality is that if the Allies would have demonstrated their power from the beginning - and their
willingness to use it - it might have averted World War II and saved millions of lives.
Unfortunately, based on its current deterrence efforts, it seems that the US has not fully learned this tragic lesson.
Today, the United States is an unrivaled conventional military power. There is no military that even comes close to the power of the United States’ carrier force, strategic assets, nuclear ability, or battle-hardened troops.
But again, deterrence is more than just military might - it's also a mindset. And for too long, the United States has projected only weakness and indecision to its enemies, OR been bogged down in questionable interventions abroad.
Because of this, belligerent actors in North Korea and the Middle East have concluded over the years that the US is unwilling to use its military strength effectively, and they have acted accordingly ever since.
Without deterrence, the end result is a more dangerous world where our enemies believe they can profit from violence and aggression.
We cannot allow this trend to continue.
The lessons of history remain clear. Preventing conflict comes down to having the capability to exert force, and the clear willingness to use it when needed.
