Safer But Not Yet Safe

In international affairs, what a country does depends on its own interests and on what its partners do. This column uses data on political institutions and UN voting to recover the network of geopolitical influence. The network tracks major shifts in international politics since the 1960s and reveals three notions of power: autonomy, control, and the ability to shape the game. Across all countries, the US has the most autonomy but China has the most control. Domestic political change in the US or China moves other countries the most, as the network transmits it furthest.

Despite China's growing economic influence in Latin America, Beijing faces challenges it cannot easily control, from the activities of Chinese nationals abroad to costly missteps by its companies. These vulnerabilities reveal an overlooked opportunity for the United States to strengthen its position in the region through diplomacy, security cooperation, and deeper knowledge of China.

The United States must supply the leadership to curb the world’s bad actors, protect victims, and defend an indispensable system.