China's Alternative World Order

>> Elizabeth Economy: When Xi Jinping launched the Belt and road initiative in 2013, there were mixed reactions in the United States and throughout the West. Some viewed it as a straightforward global infrastructure program. Others saw it as little more than grandiose propaganda. Within a few years, however, many became concerned that it was part of a larger effort to expand Chinese geopolitical influence through a Sino centric global trade network and and by loading emerging economies with burdensome debt.

 

Today, the Belt and Road Initiative has emerged as a founding pillar of China and Xi Jinping's long term strategy to reshape the world order, one dominated by Chinese notions of state, determined political rights, economic development, and common security. Through China's Belt and Road Initiative, Global Development Initiative, Global Security Initiative, and Global Civilization Initiative, Beijing hopes to diminish Western values in international bodies, dissolve the United States network of alliances, knock the US dollar off its pedestal, and eliminate Washington's technological edge.

 

In a 2023 speech, Xi himself proclaimed that China was already leading the way to reform the international system with the help of these four initiatives. Despite such statements in China's initiatives, many American officials have dismissed the writing on the wall, especially after some of China's progress, including diplomatic efforts, have failed or backfired in recent years.

 

U.S. leaders and policymakers cannot assume these setbacks are indicative of a permanent downward trend. Instead, America must recognize Beijing's initiatives and efforts are comprehensive in nature, well resourced, global, and most importantly, strategically designed to support Xi's long term vision. To to succeed against this vision, the United States must offer its own vision for the international community, one that paints America, not China, as the agent for positive change.

 

America must also learn from China's playbook to fully understand what the US Is up against diplomatically, economically, and even militarily. Diplomatically, China has been more engaged and more heavily invested on the global stage than the United States. China has more embassies and representative offices than any other country.

 

Its diplomats speak frequently at conferences and publish streams of articles to promote their vision. All of this is further supported by its wide reaching state media networks like cgtn. China relentlessly portrays itself as a welcome agent of anti-colonial and anti-imperial change, while painting the United States as the defender of an unpopular and imperial status quo.

 

In one recent academic study, even though international audiences initially preferred American values and principles, exposure to effective Chinese messaging shifted their views economically. Although Belt and Road financing has dropped sharply since 2016, the initiative still encompasses over 100 countries and China is on the cusp of leading the world's deployment of green technologies and digital infrastructure Xi Jinping has also leveraged Russia's invasion of Ukraine as an opportunity to push de dollarization of the global economy, hoping to advance the use of its own own and others currencies.

 

China has also expanded its military reach, establishing its first military logistics base in Djibouti with plans for an additional 10 bases and support facilities in Africa. China brought over 100 senior military officials from nearly 50 African nations to its China Africa Peace and Security Forum, agreeing to hold joint military exercises.

 

And China's Foreign ministry reports over 100 countries, regional organizations and international organizations support China's Global Security Initiative. All of this threatens to undermine or at least challenge the military alliances developed by the United States and its security partners. The alternative vision that China offers resonates with many non Western nations.

 

Xi's enticing sales pitch capitalizes on other nations strong desire for national sovereignty and a greater voice in global affairs. If successful, Beijing's efforts could fundamentally alter global governance and replace universal values with state determined rights, transparent institutions with opaque ones, and rule of law with rule by decree.

 

Success for the United States means that Washington cannot simply play defense and support the status quo. It must articulate its own unique and positive vision for change, one that preserves what's worth keeping core democratic values, open markets and free enterprise, yet still reforms and transforms in meaningful ways.

 

New relationships must be built. Emerging and middle income economies deserve a seat at the table and a voice in decision making. Existing partnerships must be strengthened, bolstering diplomatic ties, deepening economic partnerships and recommitting to security frameworks will be crucial to dampen China's appeal. Last but not least, the United States must demonstrably prove through its own actions that open, free and democratic societies provide the best pathway to to a better and more prosperous future than any alternative.