Articles
Is Workers’ Compensation Keeping Pace?
Use the proper benchmark to explore questions of what’s fair.
November 10, 2026
Published February 9, 2026
For the first time since 1934, US interest payments on the national debt now exceed annual defense spending, a reversal with profound implications for American power. History suggests that when great powers devote more resources to servicing debt than to sustaining military capability, decline becomes difficult to avoid.
From Habsburg Spain and revolutionary France to the Ottoman Empire and post–World War I Britain, rising debt burdens constrained defense, weakened deterrence, and accelerated geopolitical retreat. In each case, fiscal imbalance limited the ability to project power and respond to emerging threats.
Today, the United States faces a similar risk as entitlement-driven debt growth crowds out defense spending. Without meaningful fiscal reform, including changes to entitlement programs and debt management, America may find its global leadership increasingly constrained by the cost of past obligations rather than the demands of present security.
Learn more from Sir Niall Ferguson:
- Read "Debt Has Always Been the Ruin of Great Powers. Is the U.S. Next?" by Sir Niall Ferguson here.
- Watch GoodFellows, a podcast with Sir Niall Ferguson, here.
- Watch "Patterns of Power in Trump's Presidency" with Sir Niall Ferguson here.
Learn more about Sir Niall Ferguson here.
__________
The opinions expressed in this video are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Hoover Institution or Stanford University.
© 2026 by the Board of Trustees of Leland Stanford Junior University.
Related
Articles
Strategika Issue 108: Targeting Civilian Infrastructure
Strategika Issue 108 is now available online. Strategika is an online journal that analyzes ongoing issues of national security in light of conflicts of the past—the efforts of the Military History Working Group of historians, analysts, and military personnel focusing on military history and contemporary conflict.
November 10, 2026
Essays
Limiting Federal Spending Growth to Balance the Budget
Many think that balancing the federal budget would require deep cuts in entitlement programs. This paper shows to the contrary that the budget can be balanced within 15 years through modest and sustained federal spending restraint and moderately higher economic growth. Key to this restraint is to limit the growth in the average future value of entitlement benefits per recipient to today’s level, after adjusting for inflation and rising healthcare costs.
November 10, 2026