As of 2026, humanity is likely below replacement fertility. As far as we can tell, this has never happened before in our history as a species, not during wars, not during pandemics. Population keeps growing for another 30 years or so through momentum, and then it falls: our reading puts the peak at roughly 9 billion around 2056. The UN WPP 2024 “Medium Variant” says 10.29 billion in 2084. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde will explain why he disagrees. China already records 3.3 million more deaths than births a year. But the real surprise is where the fall is happening.
To read the paper, click here.
To read the slides, click here.
WATCH THE SEMINAR
Topic: “Terra Incognita: The Economics of a Shrinking World”
Start Time: October 14, 2026, 12:30 PM PT
