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Quantum technologies are moving from the laboratory toward strategic relevance but at different speeds and with different implications for allied security. This report offers nontechnical policymakers in allied countries a comprehensive guide to quantum computing, sensing, and communications: where each stands, how China is competing, and why no single nation can control the stack. It argues that US leadership in the quantum era will depend on orchestrating resilient alliance networks.

Key Takeaways

  • Quantum technologies represent not one race but three. Quantum computing, sensing, and communications are advancing on distinct timelines and pose distinct strategic questions. Policymakers should resist the temptation to treat “quantum” as a single domain.
  • Fault-tolerant quantum computing may arrive in the early 2030s, faster than most forecasts assume. Quantum volume has grown tenfold annually since 2018. If current trends hold across qubit count, coherence, fidelity, and error correction, the inflection point will come sooner than the conventional wisdom allows, with enormous implications for cryptography, materials science, and strategic competition.
  • Quantum sensing is the near-term workhorse. It is closest to commercial and military deployment, particularly for jam- and spoof-resistant positioning, navigation, and timing. The US lead in sensing has narrowed considerably since 2022 and requires urgent attention.
  • The quantum landscape is irreducibly multipolar. The US leads in quantum computing platforms; China leads in quantum communications deployment; Europe and Japan anchor critical component supply chains in cryogenics, lasers, optics, and detectors. No nation, including the United States, is self-sufficient.
  • Post-quantum cryptography, not quantum key distribution (QKD), is the practical hedge against “harvest-now, decrypt-later” risks. QKD remains range-limited, expensive, and dependent on vulnerable classical layers. The US federal migration target of 2035 should be treated as a floor, not a ceiling.

The Quantum Revolution: A Guide for Allied Policymakers by Hoover Institution

Cite this report:

Eyck Freymann, Sebastian Orbell, Sophie Coste, and Katharina Klotz, The Quantum Revolution: A Guide for Allied Policymakers, Allied Coordination Working Group, Hoover Institution, July 2026.

About the Authors

Eyck Freymann is a Hoover Fellow at Stanford University, where he directs the Allied Coordination Working Group and participates in the Applied History Working Group. He is the author of several books, including Defending Taiwan, The Arsenal of Democracy, and One Belt One Road.  

Sebastian Orbell is a physicist and engineer on the Quantum Control team at Quantum Machines, where he builds agentic AI systems for the autonomous operation of spin and superconducting quantum computers. He holds a DPhil from the University of Oxford, specializing in physics-aware AI agents and high-fidelity qubit calibration.

Sophie Coste is an analyst at Greenmantle, a geopolitical advisory firm, where she researches emerging tech, US-China competition, and economic choke points. She worked previously on energy security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and at SAFE’s critical minerals center. She holds a BS from the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University.

Katharina Klotz is a DPhil candidate at the University of Oxford, researching the impact of dual-use technology on states’ economic and military security strategies. She is also the Europe analyst at Greenmantle. Previously, she researched the geopolitics of space and quantum technologies at the Oxford Internet Institute and the Oxford China Policy Lab.

About the Working Groups

Allied Coordination Working Group

The Hoover Institution’s Allied Coordination Working Group (ACWG) designs actionable, integrated strategies to help allied democracies compete more effectively with China. It is housed within the Hoover History Lab, which uses history to address contemporary policy challenges. The ACWG works closely with several other Hoover groups and draws on the expertise of colleagues at the Centre for Geopolitics at the University of Cambridge and the Institute of Geoeconomics in Tokyo. It provides impetus for allied experts and policymakers to consult about their interests, needs, and capabilities—and to develop strategies collaboratively, from first principles to operational design.

Applied History Working Group

The Hoover Applied History Working Group aims to conduct and disseminate historical research on issues of national and international concern; provide concrete recommendations on the basis of research and discussion; and use Hoover's unique situation to convene academic experts, policymakers, and interested private-sector actors both at Stanford and in Washington, DC.

 

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