John H. Cochrane

Senior Fellow
Research Team: 

John H. Cochrane is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. He is currently the AQR Capital Management Distinguished Service Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business. He is also a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research and an adjunct scholar of the CATO Institute.

Before joining the Booth School in 1994, Cochrane was at the Economics Department of the University of Chicago. Cochrane earned a bachelor’s degree in physics at MIT and his PhD in economics at the University of California at Berkeley. He was a junior staff economist on the Council of Economic Advisers (1982–83).

Cochrane’s recent publications include the book Asset Pricing and articles on dynamics in stock and bond markets, the volatility of exchange rates, the term structure of interest rates, the returns to venture capital, liquidity premiums in stock prices, the relation between stock prices and business cycles, and option pricing when investors can’t perfectly hedge. His monetary economics publications include articles on the relationship between deficits and inflation, the effects of monetary policy, and the fiscal theory of the price level. He has also written articles on macroeconomics, health insurance, time-series econometrics, financial regulation, and other topics. He was a coauthor of The Squam Lake Report.

Cochrane frequently contributes editorial opinion essays to the Wall Street Journal,, and other publications. He maintains the Grumpy Economist blog.

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Recent Commentary

Economics Abstract
Featured Commentary

The Failure of Macroeconomics

by John H. Cochrane mentioning John B. Taylor, Edward Paul Lazear, Robert E. Hallvia Wall Street Journal
Wednesday, July 2, 2014

Output per capita fell almost 10 percentage points below trend in the 2008 recession. It has since grown at less than 1.5%, and lost more ground relative to trend. Cumulative losses are many trillions of dollars, and growing. And the latest GDP report disappoints again, declining in the first quarter.

Euro Zone
Featured Commentary

Deflation Skeptics

by John H. Cochrane via Grumpy Economist
Tuesday, July 1, 2014

Michele Boldrin, Giovanni Federico and  Giulio Zanella have an excellent essay on noisefromamerika, Should we worry about deflation? Maybe yes, maybe no. (If your Italian is rusty, Google translate does a fine job with it.) This matters of course, as deflation is the great European preoccupation at the moment.

Immigration Reform

Immigration and Wages

by John H. Cochrane via Grumpy Economist
Friday, June 27, 2014

Following up on my last immigration post, a thought occurred to me. The most common objection is the claim that letting immigrants in will hurt American wages. Before, I've addressed this on its merits: If labor doesn't move, capital will. Your doctor's lower wages are your lower health costs. Immigrants come for wide open jobs, and to start new businesses. And so on.

Blank Section (Placeholder)Featured Commentary

The Peregrine Podcast: “Dispelling Immigration Fears” with John Cochrane

by John H. Cochrane via Peregrine
Tuesday, June 24, 2014

John Cochrane addresses the most persistent concerns about increasing immigration to the United States, from wage suppression to assimilation.

Main EssayFeatured Commentary

Peregrine: What is the Optimal Number of Immigrants to the US?

by John H. Cochrane via Peregrine
Tuesday, June 24, 2014

Two billion, two million, fifty-two thousand and thirty-five (2,002,052,035). Seriously. The United States is made up of three and a half million square miles, with 84 people per square mile...

Podcast: The Peregrine Podcast: “Dispelling Immigration Fears” with John Cochrane

Shakman Decree

by John H. Cochrane via Grumpy Economist
Monday, June 23, 2014

A piece of local news in Chicago is worthy of wider attention. As reported on the front page of the Chicago Tribune June 16, A federal judge lifted the 42 year-old "Shakman decree" covering city hiring.

Economics Abstract

Sugar Mountain

by John H. Cochrane via Grumpy Economist
Wednesday, June 4, 2014

Last Saturday I got to go to the biannual meeting of the Macro-Finance Society. This is a great new effort spearheaded by outstanding young macro-finance researchers.

Economics Concept

Forecast Followup

by John H. Cochrane via Grumpy Economist
Sunday, May 11, 2014

A follow-up to "groundhog day," reflecting some comments and email.

Not too Late for a Cure

by John H. Cochrane via Hoover Digest
Monday, April 21, 2014

ObamaCare isn’t settled law if it doesn’t work. Rather than wait for a total collapse, let’s come up with a genuine alternative now.

US Economy

Toward a Run-Free Financial System

by John H. Cochrane via Grumpy Economist
Wednesday, April 16, 2014

The financial crisis was a systemic run. Hence, the central regulatory response should be to eliminate run-prone securities from the financial system.