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Is Iran an Ally or Enemy?

by Bing West via Analysis
Saturday, January 17, 2015

In Syria, the besieged government of the Assad regime clings to about half of the territory, while Sunni factions fight over the other half. In Iraq, the Shiites control the south, the Kurds control the northeast, and the Sunnis in the northwest are controlled by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). The Sykes-Picot division of Mesopotamia no longer exists, except in the minds of Obama White House operatives who will leave a full-scale disaster to the next administration.

What Terrorism Could Have in Store for America

by Mark Moyarvia Analysis
Friday, December 19, 2014

The scarcity of significant terrorist attacks in recent years has led Americans to assume that the days of mass casualty attacks are in the past. But history teaches us to beware of the assumption that recent trends foretell the future. Americans are paying insufficient attention to unexpected events in which terrorists inflict serious harm on the United States.

ISIS: A Threat?

by Williamson Murrayvia Analysis
Friday, December 19, 2014

The past suggests that for the short term ISIS does not represent a significant threat to the strategic security of the First World’s homelands. A few returnees may slip though the intelligence net, but it is unlikely that they will cause anything other than local mayhem. Such acts may cause similar overreactions among the security fanatics, as was the case after 9/11, and undoubtedly will excite the media enormously; but the damage they might inflict will remain limited.

Terror Now

by Ralph Petersvia Analysis
Friday, December 19, 2014

Although we have become much more capable at detecting terror threats to the homeland, our enemies are determined and ingenious. The most-frequent threats we will face are lone-wolf or small-group terrorists inspired by notions of jihad but acting in relative autonomy; however, Islamist fanatics will not stop attempting to stage dramatic large-scale strikes against the United States.

Interest, Fear, and Honor

by Thomas Donnellyvia Analysis
Friday, December 19, 2014

For both structural and cultural reasons, it seems likely that China’s rise as a global great power will provoke conflict with neighboring states and even farther abroad. Rising powers throughout history have sought to reshape the international balance of power to their liking, and the particular East Asian order that China wishes to restructure–led by the United States but with a hub-and-spoke design that is problematic for collective deterrence and defense –is inherently vulnerable and made more so by the seeming weakness of current US policy.

Regional Tensions around China and the Role of the US in the Western Pacific

by Miles Maochun Yuvia Analysis
Friday, December 19, 2014

China’s endeavor to revive a grand “Chinese Dream” of past glory and preeminence in world affairs is the driving force in creating the current geopolitical tensions in the Asia Pacific region. The US Military superiority and American political hostility toward Chinese communism have been able to check and balance China’s age-old ambition of dominance in the region.

Realism about Allies: What the U.S. Can Expect from Middle Eastern Partners

by Frederick W. Kaganvia Analysis
Thursday, December 18, 2014

Americans must be realistic about what they expect from allies. We rightly prefer to engage on a multilateral basis and with as broad a coalition as possible. But too often we find ourselves surprised, offended, and alienated when our partners, especially regional states, seem to pursue their own interests at the expense of what we see as the common good.

Friends, Enemies, and 'Frenemies'

by Max Bootvia Analysis
Wednesday, December 17, 2014

The United States has few stalwart friends in the greater Middle East; even nominally allied states such as Qatar, Turkey, and Pakistan play a double game. The United States needs to make clear to them the costs of flirting with Islamists while trying to broaden the coalition to include substate actors such as the Sunni tribes of Iraq.

A More Balanced Approach to Climate Change Policy

by Thomas F. Stephensonvia Analysis
Tuesday, December 2, 2014
Our country urgently needs a more balanced approach to the global warming and climate change issue. On its own, it is a major policy problem, and it has also come to dominate discussions over our country’s broader energy strategy.
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Managing the Cyber Security Threat

by Abraham D. Sofaervia Analysis
Wednesday, November 26, 2014

The cyber threat is part of a transnational game, with low barriers of entry, increasing sophistication, increasing cost, and no prospect that any state will be victorious.  The U.S. needs to manage the risk by focusing on those aspects of cyber insecurity that relate to commerce and critical infrastructure, leaving traditional forms of intelligence and military activities unregulated; and by allowing private companies and individuals to use strong encryption or open source software without built-in vulnerabilities. 

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