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How China’s Views on the Law of Jus ad Bellum Will Shape Its Legal Approach to Cyberwarfare

by Julian G. Kuvia Aegis Paper Series
Thursday, August 17, 2017

This paper concludes that the Chinese government has adopted a strict positivist reading of the UN Charter’s limitations on the use of force that brooks no exceptions for humanitarian interventions and with a narrowly construed exception for self defense. Since China has not shown any willingness to abandon this legal approach to the law of jus ad bellum codified in the Charter, it is unlikely that China will embrace the US legal approach to cyberwarfare. Rather, China will probably use its restrictive reading of the UN Charter to garner political support among other countries to criticize and deter offensive US cyberwarfare.  This sharp divide between the US and Chinese legal positions calls into question the efficacy of longstanding US government efforts to convince China to accept and apply international law to cyberwarfare.  

Fiscal policies and the prices of labor: a comparison of the U.K. and U.S.

by Casey B. Mulliganvia Springer Open
Friday, August 11, 2017

This paper measures the 2007–13 evolution of employment tax rates in the U.K. and the U.S. The U.S. changes are greater, in the direction of taxing a greater fraction of the value created by employment, and primarily achieved with new implicit tax rates. Even though both countries implemented a temporary “fiscal stimulus,” their tax rate dynamics were different: the U.S. stimulus increased rates, whereas the U.K. stimulus reduced them. The U.K. later increased the tax on employment during its “austerity” period. Tax rate measurements are a first ingredient for cross-country comparisons of labor markets during and after the financial crisis.

Long-Term Issues For Central Banks

by Jaime Caruana, Kevin Warshvia Bank for International Settlements
Wednesday, August 9, 2017

The global political, economic and financial landscape is constantly evolving. Some of the changes may prove short-lived. But others may be slow-moving and persistent, and only detectable over time as evidence accumulates. Although central banks’ day-to-day operations and policymaking tend to focus on near- or medium-term developments, longer-term trends and structural changes will at some point come into the picture – not least because of their impact on the economic relationships that are central to policy formulation and analysis.

Blank Section (Placeholder)Analysis and Commentary

Appropriate Norms Of State Behavior In Cyberspace: Governance In China And Opportunities For US Businesses

by Mei Gechlikvia Aegis Paper Series
Thursday, July 27, 2017

Finding cybernorms that are acceptable to the United States and China, which have different ideologies and practices as well as enormous interests at stake, is challenging. This article identifies these developments in China - the new Guiding Cases System as well as foreign and domestic developments regarding facilitating everyone’s access to cyberspace - and discusses how they, together with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s growing significance in the international arena, call for more strategic thinking among US policymakers so that the United States can seize the new opportunities to engage meaningfully with China in establishing international norms for cyberspace.

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Encryption Substitutes

by Andrew Keane Woodsvia Aegis Paper Series
Tuesday, July 18, 2017

This paper argues that the “going dark” debate ought to be considered in context of the larger debate over government access to data. Encryption is not the only game in town: just as law enforcement can pursue a number of different alternatives to mandating encryption backdoors, so too can privacy advocates take steps beyond encrypting their data to ensure their privacy.  Acknowledging these substitutes—both for law enforcement and for privacy seekers—generates a number of insights. For example, comprehensive reform may make more sense than serial reforms, since it would allow for issue linkage and deal-making.

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The US Arms Control And Disarmament Agency In 1961–63

by James Goodbyvia Analysis
Tuesday, July 18, 2017

Public policy issues involving a complex mix of problems, exemplified today by climate change and the threat of nuclear war, require governance by institutions whose mandates and cultures embrace technological expertise as well as diplomatic and military skills. This paper is a case study of how such an institution operated during the Kennedy Administration to deal with the growing threat of radioactive debris in the environment and the threat of nuclear proliferation, and also put US-Soviet relations on a new trajectory. The 1963 Limited Test Ban Treaty might not have been concluded during the Kennedy Administration had the US Arms Control and Disarmament Agency not been established in 1961.

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China and the US Strategic Construction of Cybernorms: The Process Is the Product

by Duncan B. Hollisvia Aegis Paper Series
Thursday, July 6, 2017

This paper explores the role norms play in advancing U.S. interests in changing Chinese behavior in cyberspace.  It compares and contrasts U.S. efforts to achieve two norms:  (1) the U.N. Group of Governmental Experts’ consensus that international law applies in cyberspace; and (2) the U.S.-China understanding that neither State would pursue cyber-espionage for commercial advantages.  In contrast to prior studies that focus only on the behavior a norm requires, this paper employs a broader, process-based analysis.  That analysis offers a new framework for strategizing about the potential risks and rewards of pursuing different normative processes, whether in U.S. efforts to impact China’s behavior in cyberspace or vice-versa. 

Blank Section (Placeholder)Featured

The 2016 Presidential Election—Identities, Class, And Culture

by Morris P. Fiorinavia Essays on Contemporary American Politics
Thursday, June 22, 2017

In the aggregate the 2016 election returns were similar to those in 2012, but the consequences of the voting were dramatically different. This contrast highlights the fact that in a majoritarian system like that in the United States minor changes in the vote can produce major changes in government control and the public policies that result. Looking ahead, perhaps the most significant feature of the 2016 voting was the reappearance of anti-establishment “populist” sentiments that are roiling the politics of other advanced democracies.

Blank Section (Placeholder)Analysis and Commentary

Ayatollah Machiavelli

by Karim Sadjadpourvia Analysis
Tuesday, June 20, 2017

The Islamic Republic of Iran and its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei have arguably become the most powerful country, and leader, in the Middle East. A Machiavellian combination of ruthlessness, radicalism, and realism—underpinned by a 2500-year history of subtle statecraft—has helped Tehran fill political vacuums created by the Iraq war and Arab uprisings. Though American and Iran share numerous common interests—and adversaries—as long as Iran continues to define itself as a revolution rather than a nation-state cooperation will be minimal, containment will be necessary, and confrontation may be unavoidable

Blank Section (Placeholder)Analysis and Commentary

The Follies Of Democracy Promotion

by Samuel Tadrosvia Analysis
Tuesday, June 6, 2017

President Obama’s election was warmly greeted in Egypt by both the country’s leader and population. In Cairo, Obama promised a new beginning, not only in America’s relationship with Egypt, but the whole Muslim world. By the time he left office, the American Egyptian relationship was in shambles. In this essay, Samuel Tadros examines the illusions that shaped Obama’s adventure in Egypt in pursuit of an imaginary transition to democracy, offering a cautionary tale for the Trump administration. If the US Egyptian alliance is to be strengthened and Egypt is to survive the regional upheaval, President Trump should forgo the illusions Washington holds about the country and base his strategy toward Egypt not on Egypt as it should be, but on Egypt as it is.

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