Economic Policy Working Group

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Firm Investment And The Term Structure Of Uncertainty

by Ian Wrightvia Working Group on Economic Policy
Monday, May 4, 2015

Working Group on Economic Policy: WP15104 Why has firm activity been slow to recover from the Great Recession? This paper presents theoretical and empirical evidence suggesting long-term uncertainty may be one reason. Specifically, it identifies the current level of uncertainty and expectations of future uncertainty -- that is, the entire term structure of uncertainty -- are negatively correlated with firm investment rates.

Featured Commentary

A Recovery Waiting To Be Liberated

by John B. Taylorvia Wall Street Journal
Tuesday, March 3, 2015

Bad government policy has kept the economy caged. Here’s how to spur growth quickly.

Measuring Job-Finding Rates and Matching Efficiency with Heterogeneous Jobseekers

by Robert E. Hall, Sam Schulhofer-Wohlvia Working Group on Economic Policy
Friday, February 13, 2015

Working Group on Economic Policy: WP15103 - Matching efficiency is the productivity of the process for matching jobseekers to available jobs. Job-finding is the output; vacant jobs and active jobseekers are the inputs.

Blogs

It’s Not About Conspiracy Theorizing, It’s About Effectiveness

by John B. Taylorvia Economics One
Friday, February 13, 2015

Yesterday Paul Krugman took some pot shots at an op-ed that Paul Ryan and I wrote nearly five years ago—an op-ed that was critical of quantitative easing. Here’s why Krugman missed his mark and the QE critics are correct.

If Hayek and Coase Were Environmentalists: Linking Economics and Ecology

by Terry Andersonvia Working Group on Economic Policy
Thursday, February 5, 2015

Working Group on Economic Policy: WP15102 - This essay argues that the focus of ecology and economics on equilibria and externalities misses the dynamic connection between humans and nature and that there is a better alternative for linking ecology with economics, one that builds on the teachings of Nobel laureates Friedrich Hayek and Ronald Coase.

Featured Commentary

Paul Krugman Pontificating On Policy Rules

by John B. Taylorvia Economics One
Tuesday, February 3, 2015

In a recent blog post Paul Krugman talks a lot about policy rules and the Taylor rule in particular.

Blogs

Reply To Alan Blinder Redux

by John B. Taylorvia Economics One
Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Alan Blinder has written another Wall Street Journal article criticizing legislation that would simply require the Fed to describe its rule or strategy for monetary policy.  As with his earlier article, Blinder still “shoots at a straw man of his own making, not at the proposed law itself” as I wrote in another John Taylor’s Reply to Alan Blinder for the Wall Street Journal.

Why City Pension Problems Have Not Improved, and a Roadmap Forward

by Joshua D. Rauhvia Working Group on Economic Policy
Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Working Group on Economic Policy: WP15101 - This paper studies the evolution of city-level pension liabilities over the period 2009-2013 for ten large U.S. municipalities: New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, Philadelphia, Jacksonville, San Francisco, Baltimore, Boston, and Atlanta.

Other Media

Free Markets Remain Our Best Friends

quoting John B. Taylor, John H. Cochrane via Go Upstate
Tuesday, January 13, 2015

For most of his six years in office, President Barack Obama utilized virtually every means a Keynesian imagination can cook up to give us the worst economic recovery since World War II.

Inflation Targeting In Emerging Markets: The Global Experience

by John B. Taylorvia Working Group on Economic Policy
Friday, December 19, 2014

Working Group on Economic Policy: WP14112 - This paper examines the Federal Reserve’s recent policy of quantitative easing by looking back at the experience of the 1930s and 1940s when the Fed, under Treasury control, kept interest rates at levels comparable to today and its balance sheet increased similarly.

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About

The Working Group on Economic Policy brings together experts on economic and financial policy at the Hoover Institution to study key developments in the U.S. and global economies, examine their interactions, and develop specific policy proposals. Read more...

Events

Archive of Working Papers on Economic Policy

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John B. Taylor

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Media

Policy Seminar on Stresses and Strains in China’s Financial System

Thursday, April 2, 2015
George Shultz Conference Room, Herbert Hoover Memorial Building

Darrell Duffie, the Dean Witter Distinguished Professor of Finance at Stanford University’s Graduate School of Business, presented his recent research on “Stresses and Strains in China’s Financial System.”

Event

Policy Seminar on Unfunded Retiree Healthcare: The Elephant in the Room

Thursday, March 5, 2015
George Shultz Conference Room, Herbert Hoover Memorial Building

Bob Pozen, Senior Lecturer at Harvard Business School and Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, discussed his work on “Unfunded Retiree Healthcare: The Elephant in the Room.”

Event

Policy Seminar on Lessons from the History of U.S. Trade Policy

Thursday, February 26, 2015
George Shultz Conference Room, Herbert Hoover Memorial Building

Douglas Irwin, the John Sloan Dickey Third Century Professor in the Social Sciences at Dartmouth College, discussed “Lessons from U.S. Trade Policy History.” 

Event

Policy Seminar on Labor Market Fluidity and Economic Performance: The Policy Implications

Thursday, February 19, 2015
George Shultz Conference Room, Herbert Hoover Memorial Building
Steven Davis, the William H. Abbott Professor of International Business and Economics at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business, discussed his work with John Haltiwanger on “Labor Market Fluidity and Economic Performance.”
Event

Policy Seminar on a review of the Bank of England’s transparency practices

Monday, February 9, 2015
George Shultz Conference Room, Herbert Hoover Memorial Building

Kevin Warsh, distinguished visiting fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and lecturer at Stanford’s Graduate School of Business, discussed his recent experience in being appointed by the Bank of England to review its practices and procedures relating to transparency in monetary policy. 

Event

Policy Seminar on A New Structure for U.S. Federal Debt

Wednesday, January 28, 2015
George Shultz Conference Room, Herbert Hoover Memorial Building
John Cochrane, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and the AQR Capital Management Distinguished Service Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business, discussed his work on “A New Structure for U.S. Federal Debt” (see http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/john.cochrane/research/papers/Cochrane_US_Federal_Debt.pdf.)
Event

Policy Seminar on the Federal Reserve Credibility and Reputation in Historical Perspective

Tuesday, January 20, 2015
George Shultz Conference Room, Herbert Hoover Memorial Building
Michael Bordo, Distinguished Visiting Fellow at Hoover and Professor of Economics and Director of the Center for Monetary and Financial History at Rutgers University, discussed his recent work on “Federal Reserve Credibility and Reputation in Historical Perspective.”
Event

Policy Seminar on The Political Economy of European Economic Stagnation

Thursday, January 15, 2015
George Shultz Conference Room, Herbert Hoover Memorial Building
Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, professor at the University of Pennsylvania, discussed his work in collaboration with Lee Ohanian on “The Political Economy of European Economic Stagnation.”
Event

Policy Seminar on How Adam Smith Can Change Your Life

Wednesday, December 10, 2014
George Shultz Conference Room, Herbert Hoover Memorial Building
Russell Roberts, the John and Jean De Nault Hoover Research Fellow, discussed his recent book, How Adam Smith Can Change Your Life.
Event

Policy Seminar on “The Economics of Counterinsurgency: Winning, Leasing, and Losing Hearts and Minds.”

Thursday, December 4, 2014
George Shultz Conference Room, Herbert Hoover Memorial Building

Joseph Felter, Research fellow at Hoover, Senior research scholar at CISAC, and retired US Army colonel) discusses "The Economics of Counterinsurgency: Winning, Leasing, and Losing Hearts and Minds."

Event

Pages

The Working Group on Economic Policy brings together experts on economic and financial policy at the Hoover Institution to study key developments in the U.S. and global economies, examine their interactions, and develop specific policy proposals.

 

For twenty-five years starting in the early 1980s, the United States economy experienced an unprecedented economic boom. Economic expansions were stronger and longer than in the past. Recessions were shorter, shallower, and less frequent. GDP doubled and household net worth increased by 250 percent in real terms. Forty-seven million jobs were created.

This quarter-century boom strengthened as its length increased. Productivity growth surged by one full percentage point per year in the United States, creating an additional $9 trillion of goods and services that would never have existed. And the long boom went global with emerging market countries from Asia to Latin America to Africa experiencing the enormous improvements in both economic growth and economic stability.

Economic policies that place greater reliance on the principles of free markets, price stability, and flexibility have been the key to these successes. Recently, however, several powerful new economic forces have begun to change the economic landscape, and these principles are being challenged with far reaching implications for U.S. economic policy, both domestic and international. A financial crisis flared up in 2007 and turned into a severe panic in 2008 leading to the Great Recession. How we interpret and react to these forces—and in particular whether proven policy principles prevail going forward—will determine whether strong economic growth and stability returns and again continues to spread and improve more people’s lives or whether the economy stalls and stagnates.

Our Working Group organizes seminars and conferences, prepares policy papers and other publications, and serves as a resource for policymakers and interested members of the public.

 


Contacts

For general questions about the Working Group, please contact John Taylor or his assistant Marie-Christine Slakey at (650) 723-9677. For media inquiries, please contact our office of public affairs.