Hoover Daily Report
Hoover Daily Report

The Secret Effort to Prevent the American Revolution

Friday, July 24, 2026

This Friday, Jonathan Gienapp and Jane Calvert discuss the significance of newly discovered Revolutionary-era documents seeking a diplomatic resolution of the American colonies’ issues with Great Britain; Yasuyuki Todo argues that closer trade ties with Japan would help protect the US from supply-chain disruptions; and Russell Berman offers his assessment of how Germany’s national government should handle a possible AfD victory in September state elections.

US History

The Secret Effort to Prevent the Revolution

At Law & Liberty, Research Fellow Jonathan Gienapp and coauthor Jane Calvert comment on the significance of “the recent discovery of several remarkable documents,” authored by prominent American John Dickinson in 1775, seeking to establish a diplomatic backchannel with Great Britain and to avert armed conflict in the American colonies. “Rarely are new documents discovered that change our understanding of major political events,” the authors write. “But these Dickinson documents . . . shed extraordinary new light on the period immediately prior to American independence.” Gienapp and Calvert argue that the new documents show Dickinson as “an adept strategic thinker” both “committed to preserving American rights” and “concerned about what separation might bring.” The authors conclude that “though Dickinson failed to reconcile the two sides, his efforts and concerns deserve our attention” and serve as a reminder of “why many who lived through [the Revolutionary period] tried to hold their political community together and so feared disunity.” Read more here.

Freedom Frequency

Trade with Japan: A Pillar of US Prosperity and Security

Supply chains are subject to many shocks—natural disasters, pandemics, wars, geopolitical tensions, and protectionism—and those shocks propagate themselves around the world. Many global supply chains also depend directly or indirectly on Chinese materials and manufacturing, creating another form of vulnerability. At Freedom Frequency, economist Yasuyuki Todo argues that the United States can help protect itself from shocks and supply-chain disruptions by moving closer to Japan, a longtime reliable partner. Economists recognize that diversification of supply-chain partners is a way to confine country-specific shocks, Todo writes, and in that light, the limited growth of US-Japan trade so far has been a missed opportunity for both sides. If Japan and the United States take steps such as strengthening cooperation in research and patents and making more effective use of foreign direct investment, he says, both sides will benefit. Read more here.

German Politics and US Foreign Policy

Germany’s Democracy Problem

Writing at VOZ, Senior Fellow Russell Berman comments on the rise of the right-wing AfD party in Germany as it “is poised to score important victories in two states of the former East.” Berman notes that mass immigration since 2015 has fueled AfD’s rise, which has been accompanied by concerns over the party’s allegedly fascist or even Nazi-adjacent aims. “Much of the political leadership in Germany insists that the AfD is too dangerous to be allowed to govern. But . . . if the AfD wins, democracy means that it deserves to govern,” argues Berman, warning that preventing a popularly elected government from governing would demonstrate “that the system is democratic only when approved parties win.” For Washington, Berman says the AfD’s rise is notable and concerning given the party’s “softer” stance “toward Moscow than other parties.” Berman warns that “Moscow will . . . exploit any conflict between an AfD-led state government and Berlin.” Read more here.

British Politics

The Andy Burnham Coup

At Defining Ideas, Senior Fellow David L. Leal describes the constitutional machinery that made Andy Burnham the new British prime minister—a process that operated without any meaningful public debate on Britain’s future. Burnham relied heavily on imagery and the quiet work of Labour insiders, Leal argues, which amounted to a missed opportunity for Britons to clarify what their new leader would actually do. Although pundits accused Keir Starmer of leading a “failed government,” the ousted PM actually fulfilled some of his party’s promises, Leal writes. And now, says the political scientist, Burnham’s unimpressive approval numbers suggest that he and Labour might lack a mandate to pursue the party’s manifesto. Read more here.

Hoover Institution News

Hoover Congratulates 2026 Winners of Distinguished Undergraduate Essay Competition

Papers on how Chinese interests are weaponizing the information space within Taiwan and on the significance of rhetoric and reforms in the American healthcare policy discussion won Hoover’s 2026 Distinguished Undergraduate Essay Competition. “A free society depends on citizens who can think clearly and argue well. This competition asks students to do both, and that is why it matters so much today,” said Senior Fellow Russell A. Berman, who created the essay competition. “If we lose the ability to reason on the page, we lose the capacity to govern ourselves,” he said. The papers were judged by a panel composed of Hoover fellows Berman, Norman Naimark, and John H. Cochrane. The award winners are Stanford undergraduate students pursuing majors that represent a broad set of academic interests. Winning students distinguished themselves through the strength of their writing on topics concerning the values and institutions of liberty and how public policies impact human freedom. Read more here.

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