Today, H.R. McMaster speaks with Russian opposition leader Vladimir Kara-Murza about the war in Ukraine, increasing political repression within Russia, and Kara-Murza’s hopes for a democratic Russian future. The GoodFellows discuss the US-China rivalry with guest Eyck Freymann and move on to talk about the continued Russian invasion of Ukraine. And Rowena He and Paul Wolfowitz each spotlight the plight of Hong Kong’s activists, now imprisoned or awaiting sentencing, pointing out the folly of their charges and how the United States can lean on Beijing to do better.
Determining America’s Role in the World
Join Russian opposition leader, historian, and journalist Vladimir Kara-Murza and Hoover Senior Fellow H.R. McMaster as they discuss the state of the war in Ukraine, the prospects and perils facing Russia’s opposition movement, the shifting currents of Russian domestic politics, the effort to organize the Russian diaspora into a coherent political force, and prospects for a post-Putin Russia. Reflecting on his experience imprisoned by the Putin regime in a Siberian labor colony, Kara-Murza discusses the lack of political freedom in today’s Russia, the difficulty of measuring public opinion under authoritarian rule, and the West’s repeated efforts to accommodate Putin’s regime. He also considers how Western governments can support Russian civil society through targeted sanctions and access to independent information, and what a democratic future for Russia could mean for European security and lasting peace. Watch the episode here.
America’s complicated relationship with China doesn’t lack for subplots—tariffs, territorial designs, human rights, and espionage. But does the superpowers’ Cold War–like competition over artificial intelligence supersede all other US-Sino concerns? On the eve of the year’s second Trump-Xi summit, Hoover Fellow Eyck Freymann discusses the state of the great-power rivalry and the possibility of a Chinese move on Taiwan in the near future. (Freymann, author of 2026’s Defending Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War with China, envisions an “all-domain pressure campaign” that slowly strangles the island nation.) After that: Senior Fellow Niall Ferguson recounts his recent visit to Kyiv (his fifth time in Ukraine since Russia’s invasion) and the odds of Vladimir Putin’s finding an “off-ramp” after a 55-month war of attrition (or, with his back to the wall, will Russia’s leader opt instead for a modern-day Ludendorff offensive?). Finally, the fellows weigh in on the Fed’s recent rate increase and President Trump’s stepping up America’s strategic footprints in Greenland and Poland. Watch the episode here.
Confronting and Competing with China
In The Washington Post, Research Fellow Rowena He writes of the looming sentencing this Friday of three Tiananmen Square vigil organizers in Hong Kong. “The conviction rests on a slogan used in Victoria Park for three decades: ‘End one-party dictatorship,’” He writes. It doesn’t specify whose dictatorship needs to end, but that doesn’t matter to Beijing; He says the judges are betraying the meaning of those words, as well as the early rallying cries of Mao Zedong, by equating the slogan with calling for the overthrow of the Chinese Communist Party. “The idea of ending one-party dictatorship to build a democratic China was Mao Zedong’s promise during the civil war—his rallying cry against the Nationalist Party,” she writes. “China’s constitution doesn’t describe its political system as ‘one-party dictatorship’—instead defining it as a ‘people’s democratic dictatorship’ featuring ‘multi-party cooperation’ under CCP leadership.” Read more here. [Subscription required.]
In The Wall Street Journal, Distinguished Visiting Fellow Paul Wolfowitz argues that XI Jinping’s visit to Washington presents a perfect opportunity for the Trump administration to ask him to release imprisoned Hong Kong newspaper publisher and activist Jimmy Lai. Now 78, Lai was jailed and his newspaper Apple Daily shuttered in 2020. He has spent much of the time since in solitary confinement. Wolfowitz says releasing him could rebuild trust between the two nations that has eroded as Beijing slowly undid its commitments to Hong Kong’s political autonomy in recent years. “Compassion can be an expression of confidence and not an admission of error. Releasing Mr. Lai wouldn’t require China to admit that his imprisonment was wrong. There are large disagreements that divide the U.S. and China, and managing them peacefully requires a foundation of trust.” Read more here. [Subscription required.]
Economics
On the latest episode of Economics, Applied, Senior Fellow Steven J. Davis speaks with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee about his recent speech on how central banks should respond to supply shocks. Goolsbee argues that the Fed should not simply “look through” supply shocks but should instead treat them as persistent or recurring and, hence, as a call for tightening by the Fed. The discussion ranges widely from oil shocks and inflation in the 1970s to supply-chain disruptions and tariffs in the 2020s. They also discuss wage stickiness and its implications for monetary policy. Watch the episode here.
The Americas
In a new video, former Hoover History Lab student research analyst Felipe Jafet details how Brazil’s Supreme Court has accumulated powers that extend beyond traditional judicial authority, raising concerns about institutional checks, individual rulings, censorship, and democratic accountability. He says that restoring constitutional balance will require the National Congress to reassert its authority and establish durable limits on the Court’s power. He breaks down his plans for reform in a paper published here. Watch the video here.
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