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Why Polling Swings Are Often Mirages

by Benjamin Lauderdale, Douglas Riversvia Real Clear Politics
Tuesday, November 1, 2016

Recently Nate Silver asked us why our polls don’t bounce around much. In our polling, Hillary Clinton had a small lead in September that expanded to five or six points after the first presidential debate on Sept. 26. Since then a lot has happened – sex tapes, charges of election rigging, WikiLeaks – but our numbers have budged only slightly.