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Hoover’s Tech Futures Lab offers a provisional framework for thinking about future strategic technological surprises. Our framework offers criteria for defining strategic surprise, identifies different categories of technological surprise across the innovation lifecycle, widens the aperture beyond traditional military contexts, and suggests multiple approaches to better anticipate and prepare for disruptions. Rather than being definitive, this framework is a starting point for conversations about the risks and opportunities of technological disruptions. Protecting and maintaining US security and prosperity in the years ahead will require consistent efforts both to reduce the element of surprise and to make our societies, economy, and country more resilient and adaptive.

New and existing technologies can produce strategic surprises through:
Revolutionary Emergence

Revolutionary Emergence

Revolutionary breakthroughs can overturn long-held assumptions and force affected parties to alter their behavior and policies.

Timing

Timing

A technological or scientific breakthrough could rise to the level of a strategic surprise if the timing of its emergence is not anticipated or appreciated.

Unintended and Novel Applications

Unintended and Novel Applications

Technology designed and intended for one use may be applied in unexpected ways in other contexts, sometimes transforming other domains.

Unexpected Diffusion and Adoption

Unexpected Diffusion and Adoption

Technological innovations can produce surprising effects when they diffuse quickly, spread widely, or are adopted at scale before norms and standards can catch up.

Unanticipated Secondary Implications

Unanticipated Secondary Implications

Sometimes an initial disruption is quite small and could go unnoticed, but over time, that initial disruption may catalyze a larger, unforeseen reaction.

Compounding and Cascading Effects

Compounding and Cascading Effects

Strategic surprises contingent on the emergence of other technologies and societal shifts are hardest to forecast. This pattern can produce positive and negative unexpected impacts. 

Mitigating the Element of Surprise

Although eliminating surprise is impossible, foresight can help arm decision-makers with the information and time needed to prepare to mitigate or take advantage of disruptions. The Tech Futures Lab applies a range of foresight approaches to identify consequential technological developments, uncover blind spots, and anticipate potential surprises before they become strategic disruptions. We:

Learn from Previous Strategic Surprises

Learn from Previous Strategic Surprises

Use lessons-learned exercises to help organizations see what has and has not worked.

Recognize Uncertainty

Recognize Uncertainty

A technological or scientific breakthrough could rise to the level of a strategic surprise if the timing of its emergence is not anticipated or appreciated.

Identify Assumptions and Biases

Identify Assumptions and Biases

Technology designed and intended for one use may be applied in unexpected ways in other contexts, sometimes transforming other domains.

Explore and Imagine

Explore and Imagine

Technological innovations can produce surprising effects when they diffuse quickly, spread widely, or are adopted at scale before norms and standards can catch up.

Think Like the Adversary/Competitor

Think Like the Adversary/Competitor

Sometimes an initial disruption is quite small and could go unnoticed, but over time, that initial disruption may catalyze a larger, unforeseen reaction.

Scan Widely

Scan Widely

Strategic surprises contingent on the emergence of other technologies and societal shifts are hardest to forecast. This pattern can produce positive and negative unexpected impacts. 

Apply Tech Against Tech

Apply Tech Against Tech

Use AI to improve the speed, breadth, and depth of foresight, scenario generation, wargaming, and analysis.

Reframe Accountability

Reframe Accountability

Examine why warnings were not heeded, why contingency plans were not developed, and what costs followed from insufficient preparation.

Improving Resilience and Bureaucratic Flexibility

Forecasting surprise is only half the challenge. The Tech Futures Lab works with institutions to translate predictions into preparedness by developing the flexibility, capabilities, and response mechanisms needed to adapt when surprises unfold. We:

Build Trusted, Expert Teams

Build Trusted, Expert Teams

Assemble diverse, expert teams capable of moving quickly to determine the risks and advantages of an evolving situation.

Institutionalize a Devil’s Advocate Policy

Institutionalize a Devil’s Advocate Policy

Establish an institutional contrarian voice capable of challenging conventional thinking and compelling consideration of seemingly low-probability events and trends.

Develop Response Plans

Develop Response Plans

Technology designed and intended for one use may be applied in unexpected ways in other contexts, sometimes transforming other domains.

Establish Protocols Ahead of Emergence

Establish Protocols Ahead of Emergence

Technological innovations can produce surprising effects when they diffuse quickly, spread widely, or are adopted at scale before norms and standards can catch up.

Prepare Communication Procedures

Prepare Communication Procedures

Sometimes an initial disruption is quite small and could go unnoticed, but over time, that initial disruption may catalyze a larger, unforeseen reaction.

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