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Douglas Rivers

Senior Fellow
Douglas Rivers is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and a professor of political science at Stanford University. He is also the Chief Scientist at YouGov PLC, a global polling firm.

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Recent Commentary

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Making Sense Of The 2016 Election

by Morris P. Fiorina, David Brady, Douglas Rivers, Bill Whalenvia Stanford News
Monday, September 12, 2016

A few Stanford political experts are gathering in cyberspace to help people make sense of the 2016 election.

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Can Undecideds Help Trump Win The Election?

by David Brady, Douglas Riversvia Real Clear Politics
Wednesday, August 31, 2016

Going into September, Hillary Clinton has a sizable advantage over Donald Trump: five percentage points in the RealClearPolitics’ polling average. The Upshot, the New York Times’ polling blog, gives Clinton a 90 percent chance of winning the presidency, while British Sky Bet gives Clinton four times as good a chance as Trump.

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The Shrinking Predictive Power Of Economic Growth Models

by David Brady, Douglas Riversvia In Perspective: Decision 2016
Friday, July 8, 2016

Now that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have all but secured their parties’ nominations, what is the best way to look at how their 2016 matchup is most likely to turn out?


Explaining The Trump Phenomenon

by David Brady, Douglas Riversvia Real Clear Politics
Saturday, March 12, 2016

Americans are unhappy with various facets of current institutions and politics. Over two-thirds of us believe that the economic system favors the wealthy and that government wastes a lot of our money.


GOP Cage Fights Make Democratic Winners

by David Brady, Douglas Riversvia Wall Street Journal
Monday, February 29, 2016

The percentage of voters who rule out supporting Republican candidates is steadily climbing.


New Data Reveals Late Shift Away From Trump In South Carolina

by Douglas Riversvia YouGov
Saturday, February 20, 2016

As South Carolina voters head to the polls Saturday to cast ballots in the GOP presidential primary, new survey data suggests the race has shifted in the final week, with GOP frontrunner Donald Trump losing some support in the state.

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Decoding Trump’s Supporters

by David Brady, Douglas Riversvia Defining Ideas
Tuesday, September 15, 2015

The Donald is leading in the polls, but who exactly is prepared to vote for him? 


Who Are Trump's Supporters?

by David Brady, Douglas Riversvia Real Clear Politics
Wednesday, September 9, 2015

When Donald Trump announced he was running for president on June 16, the idea seemed faintly ridiculous. The Washington Post said that he faced “an uphill battle to be taken seriously by his rivals, political watchers and the media.”

David Brady and Douglas Rivers
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What Polls without Policy Get Wrong: Elections, Inequality, Mobility, and Taxes

by David Brady, Douglas Riversvia Fellow Talks
Tuesday, May 5, 2015

David Brady is a Davies Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution; the Bowen H. and Janice Arthur McCoy Professor of Political Science and Leadership Values in the Stanford Graduate School of Business; and a professor of political science at Stanford.  Douglas Rivers is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and a professor of political science at Stanford University.  An expert on survey research, he is also chief scientist for YouGov PLC, an international, Internet-based polling firm.  Brady and Rivers discuss polling and how to measure change over time. 

Analysis and Commentary

Who Are the Undecideds?

by Douglas Riversvia Huffington Post
Monday, November 3, 2014

There are many sources of uncertainty in election polling other than sampling error. One source of error that looms large in this year's closest races is undecided voters -- people who say they are going to vote, but don't know (or won't say) which candidate they prefer.