John H. Cochrane

Senior Fellow
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Biography: 

John H. Cochrane is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. He is also a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research and an adjunct scholar of the CATO Institute. 

Before joining Hoover, Cochrane was  a Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business, and earlier at its Economics Department. Cochrane earned a bachelor’s degree in physics at MIT and his PhD in economics at the University of California at Berkeley. He was a junior staff economist on the Council of Economic Advisers (1982–83).

Cochrane’s recent publications include the book Asset Pricing and articles on dynamics in stock and bond markets, the volatility of exchange rates, the term structure of interest rates, the returns to venture capital, liquidity premiums in stock prices, the relation between stock prices and business cycles, and option pricing when investors can’t perfectly hedge. His monetary economics publications include articles on the relationship between deficits and inflation, the effects of monetary policy, and the fiscal theory of the price level. He has also written articles on macroeconomics, health insurance, time-series econometrics, financial regulation, and other topics. He was a coauthor of The Squam Lake Report. His Asset Pricing PhD class is available online via Coursera. 

Cochrane frequently contributes editorial opinion essays to the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg.com, and other publications. He maintains the Grumpy Economist blog.

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Recent Commentary

Featured

Bruni On Rule Of Law In Regulation

by John H. Cochrane via Grumpy Economist
Tuesday, January 10, 2017

I found Frank Bruni's opinion piece in the Sunday New York Times noteworthy on the whole question of rule of law in regulation: Hillary Clinton as New York City mayor?

Analysis and Commentary

Leaders vs Followers?

by John H. Cochrane via Grumpy Economist
Monday, January 9, 2017

Should we understand politicians as assembling coalitions of voters with fixed policy preferences? Or should we instead regard politicians as leaders, who give voice to general dissatisfaction, and their followers picking up ideas?

Analysis and Commentary

Notable & Quotable: You Voted For Who?!

by John H. Cochrane via The Wall Street Journal
Wednesday, December 21, 2016

[Subscription Required] Most people vote by cultural affinity, brand, values, and a sense of personal identity.

Analysis and Commentary

Electoral College

by John H. Cochrane via Grumpy Economist
Monday, December 19, 2016

The electoral college is back in the news, with Democrats suddenly discovering it's a terrible idea.

Analysis and Commentary

New Paper

by John H. Cochrane via Grumpy Economist
Monday, December 12, 2016

A draft of a new paper is up on my webpage, "Michelson-Morley, Occam and Fisher: The Radical Implications of Stable Inflation at Near-Zero Interest Rates." This combines some talks I had given with the first title, and a much improved version of "does raising interest rates raise or lower inflation?"

Analysis and Commentary

Trump Taxes Two

by John H. Cochrane via Grumpy Economist
Saturday, December 10, 2016

"President-elect Donald Trump owns a helicopter in Scotland. To be more precise, he has a revocable trust that owns 99% of a Delaware limited liability company that owns 99% of another Delaware LLC that owns a Scottish limited company that owns another Scottish company that owns the 26-year-old Sikorsky S-76B helicopter, emblazoned with a red “TRUMP” on the side of its fuselage." So write Jean Eaglesham, Mark Maremont, and Lisa Schwartz in the Wall Street Journal.

Analysis and Commentary

The Next Crisis?

by John H. Cochrane via Grumpy Economist
Thursday, December 8, 2016

Where will the next crisis come from? Every crisis starts with a pile of debt that can't be paid back, and shady accounting to hide that debt. When one big one goes under, everybody starts to question the shady deals they've invested in, the extend-and-pretend game ends, heretofore simple rolling over of short term debt suddenly ends, and the run starts.

Featured

Balance Sheet Balance

by John H. Cochrane via Grumpy Economist
Wednesday, December 7, 2016

The Fed has a huge "balance sheet" -- It owns about $3 trillion of government bonds and mortgage backed securities, which it finances by issuing about $1 trillion of cash and $2 trillion of reserves -- interest-bearing accounts that banks have at the Fed. Is this a problem? Should the Fed trim the balance sheet going forward?

Central Bank Governance And Oversight Reform: A Panel Discussion

by Michael D. Bordo, John H. Cochrane , Charles I. Plosser, John B. Taylor, Kevin Warsh
Tuesday, December 6, 2016

The Hoover Institution hosted "Central Bank Governance & Oversight Reform: A Panel Discussion" on Tuesday, December 6, 2016 from 10:00am - 12:00pm EST.

Analysis and Commentary

Carrier Commentary

by John H. Cochrane via Grumpy Economist
Saturday, December 3, 2016

When Paul Krugman, Larry Summers, Sarah Palin, and the Wall Street Journal all agree on something -- that presidential deal-making and strong-arming over plant location is a terrible idea -- it's worth paying attention to.

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Current Online Courses

Asset Pricing, Part 1, via Coursera and the University of Chicago

This course is part one of a two-part introductory survey of graduate-level academic asset pricing. We will focus on building the intuition and deep understanding of how the theory works, how to use it, and how to connect it to empirical facts. This first part builds the basic theoretical and empirical tools around some classic facts. The second part delves more deeply into applications and empirical evaluation. Learn more. . .