John H. Cochrane

Senior Fellow
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Biography: 

John H. Cochrane is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. He is also a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research and an adjunct scholar of the CATO Institute. 

Before joining Hoover, Cochrane was  a Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business, and earlier at its Economics Department. Cochrane earned a bachelor’s degree in physics at MIT and his PhD in economics at the University of California at Berkeley. He was a junior staff economist on the Council of Economic Advisers (1982–83).

Cochrane’s recent publications include the book Asset Pricing and articles on dynamics in stock and bond markets, the volatility of exchange rates, the term structure of interest rates, the returns to venture capital, liquidity premiums in stock prices, the relation between stock prices and business cycles, and option pricing when investors can’t perfectly hedge. His monetary economics publications include articles on the relationship between deficits and inflation, the effects of monetary policy, and the fiscal theory of the price level. He has also written articles on macroeconomics, health insurance, time-series econometrics, financial regulation, and other topics. He was a coauthor of The Squam Lake Report. His Asset Pricing PhD class is available online via Coursera. 

Cochrane frequently contributes editorial opinion essays to the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg.com, and other publications. He maintains the Grumpy Economist blog.

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Recent Commentary

Analysis and Commentary

Ideas Had Sex

by John H. Cochrane via Grumpy Economist
Saturday, May 21, 2016

Why are we so much better off than our ancestors? Why did this process only start where and when it did, in Western Europe, not in Rome or China?

Featured

Overtime

by John H. Cochrane via Grumpy Economist
Friday, May 20, 2016

Like most economists, I was a bit baffled by the Administration's announcement of stricter overtime rules. The WSJ, and Jonathan Hartley and many others cover the obvious consequences on jobs, business formation and destruction, and so forth. A bit less mentioned, it reduces employee flexibility. 

Featured

Equity-Financed Banking

by John H. Cochrane via Grumpy Economist
Tuesday, May 17, 2016

I gave a talk at the Minneapolis Fed's "Ending Too Big to Fail" symposium, May 16. Agenda and video of the event here. My talk is based on "towards a run-free financial system," and a bit on a new structure for federal debt, and blog readers will notice many recycled ideas.

Featured

Week's Sad News

by John H. Cochrane via Grumpy Economist
Monday, May 16, 2016

In the quest to understand just how much the administrative state is harming economic activity, there are lots of anecdotes but few overall measures. But we have lots of anectdotes. I thought it would be fun to put together a week's worth from my morning-coffee WSJ reading.

Analysis and Commentary

Lost Jobs In Recessions

by John H. Cochrane via Grumpy Economist
Thursday, May 12, 2016

The WSJ has a nice article showing just how hard it has been for many people who lost jobs in the recession to get back to work. Their profile is typical of what I have read and not the typical picture of unemployment: Middle age middle managers. The paper by Steve Davis and Till von Wachter is here. They present the fact largely as a puzzle, which it is: "losses in the model vary little with aggregate conditions at the time of displacement, unlike the pattern in the data."

Analysis and Commentary

McArdle Nugget

by John H. Cochrane via Grumpy Economist
Tuesday, May 10, 2016

Megan McArdle has produced a timely nugget of wise prose.

Analysis and Commentary

Regulations And Growth

by John H. Cochrane via Grumpy Economist
Tuesday, May 10, 2016

Bentley Coffey, Patrick McLaughlin, and Pietro Peretto have an interesting new paper on The Cumulative Cost of Regulations. They attack two of the big problems in quantifying the effect of regulations on the economy.

Analysis and Commentary

Bond Swap

by John H. Cochrane via Grumpy Economist
Monday, May 9, 2016

The US Treasury debates new-for-old bond swap, reports FT. The Treasury will issue more of the popular 10 year bonds, and then buy them back at some point before they mature.The idea is to make treasury markets more uniform and liquid.

Featured

Global Imbalances

by John H. Cochrane via Grumpy Economist
Friday, May 6, 2016

I gave some comments on “Global Imbalances and Currency Wars at the ZLB,” by Ricardo J. Caballero, Emmanuel Farhi, and Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas at the conference, “International Monetary Stability: Past, Present and Future”, Hoover Institution, May 5 2016.

Analysis and Commentary

Delong And Logarithms

by John H. Cochrane via Grumpy Economist
Friday, May 6, 2016

Brad Delong posted a response to my oped on growth in the Wall Street Journal. He took issue with my graph.

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Current Online Courses

Asset Pricing, Part 1, via Coursera and the University of Chicago

This course is part one of a two-part introductory survey of graduate-level academic asset pricing. We will focus on building the intuition and deep understanding of how the theory works, how to use it, and how to connect it to empirical facts. This first part builds the basic theoretical and empirical tools around some classic facts. The second part delves more deeply into applications and empirical evaluation. Learn more. . .