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Thursday, May 25, 2017

Spring 2017 Issue 53

Foreign Policy
US-China Relations
Foreign Policy

Chinese Views on the Trump Administration’s Asia Policy

by Michael D. Swainevia China Leadership Monitor
Thursday, May 25, 2017

Chinese commentary on the Trump administration’s foreign policy has avoided making hostile responses to what Beijing may regard as notable U.S. provocations. 

China-Taiwan-United States
China-Taiwan-United States

Cross-Strait Relations: Marking Time

by Alan D. Rombergvia China Leadership Monitor
Thursday, May 25, 2017

There have been no dramatic developments in cross-Strait relations of late. Instead, Beijing continues its steady pressure on the Taiwan authorities while courting private interests. 

Military Affairs
Military Affairs

“Safeguarding the Core and Following Commands”: Party-Army Relations Before the 19th Party Congress

by James Mulvenonvia China Leadership Monitor
Thursday, May 25, 2017

In the run-up to the 19th Party Congress, scheduled for the fall of 2017, an important phrase appeared in Chinese military propaganda, exhorting the rank and file to “safeguard the core and follow commands.”

Economic Policy
Economic Policy

The Regulatory Storm: A Surprising Turn in Financial Policy

by Barry Naughtonvia China Leadership Monitor
Thursday, May 25, 2017

A surprisingly strong and concerted regulatory effort is shaking up the Chinese financial sector. 

Political Reform and Governance
Political Reform and Governance

The National People’s Congress in 2017: Security, Ideology, and Experimentation

by Jessica Batkevia China Leadership Monitor
Thursday, May 25, 2017

A review of the work performed over the past few years by the National People’s Congress and its Standing Committee—the body that “turns the party’s propositions into the will of the state”—can provide a clear synopsis of the Chinese Communist Party’s governance priorities. 

Party Affairs
Party Affairs

How to Read Xi Jinping’s 19th Party Congress Political Report

by Alice L. Millervia China Leadership Monitor
Thursday, May 25, 2017

Following longstanding procedures, General Secretary Xi Jinping will deliver a long political report at the Chinese Communist Party’s 19th National Congress next fall. 

E.g., 6 / 27 / 2017
E.g., 6 / 27 / 2017
Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Fall 2014: Issue 45

Foreign Policy

by Michael D. Swaine Tuesday, October 21, 2014
article

China-Taiwan-United States

by Alan D. Romberg Tuesday, October 21, 2014
article

Military Affairs

by James Mulvenon Tuesday, October 21, 2014
article

Economic Policy

by Barry Naughton Tuesday, October 21, 2014
article

Party Affairs

by Alice L. Miller Tuesday, October 21, 2014
article

The Provinces

by Cheng Li Tuesday, October 21, 2014
article
Friday, March 14, 2014

Spring 2014: Issue 43

Foreign Policy

by Michael D. Swaine Friday, March 14, 2014
article

China-Taiwan-United States

by Alan D. Romberg Friday, March 14, 2014
article

Military Affairs

by James Mulvenon Friday, March 14, 2014
article

Political Reform

by Joseph Fewsmith Friday, March 14, 2014
article

Economic Policy

by Barry Naughton Friday, March 14, 2014
article

Party Affairs

by Alice L. Miller Thursday, March 13, 2014
article

The Provinces

by Cheng Li Friday, March 14, 2014
article
Monday, October 7, 2013

Fall 2013: Issue 42

Foreign Policy

by Michael D. Swaine Monday, October 7, 2013
article

China-Taiwan-United States

by Alan D. Romberg Monday, October 7, 2013
article

Military Affairs

by James Mulvenon Monday, October 7, 2013
article

Political Reform

by Joseph Fewsmith Monday, October 7, 2013
article

Economic Policy

by Barry Naughton Monday, October 7, 2013
article

Party Affairs

by Alice L. Miller Monday, October 7, 2013
article

The Provinces

by Cheng Li Monday, October 7, 2013
article

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Party Affairs

“Core” Leaders, “Authoritative Persons,” And Reform Pushback

by Alice L. Millervia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, July 19, 2016

References in PRC media in recent months to China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, as “core” leader, and publication in May of a long dissertation on economic policy appearing in the Chinese Communist Party’s official newspaper under the byline “An Authoritative Person” have provoked controversy among observers of Chinese leadership politics.  

Economic Policy

Two Trains Running: Supply-Side Reform, SOE Reform and the Authoritative Personage

by Barry Naughtonvia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, July 19, 2016

The publication of a new article by “Authoritative Personage” on May 9, 2016, threw into the open two unresolved issues of Chinese policy: Who is making economic reform policy?  What is the mix between reform and growth? 

Military Affairs

Promoting “Young Guards”:
 The Recent High Turnover in the PLA Leadership (Part III: Personal and Political)

by Cheng Livia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, July 19, 2016

The bold moves toward reform of China’s military will have profound implications not only for Xi Jinping’s political standing in the lead-up to the next leadership turnover in 2017, but also for the development of civilian-military relations in the country and for the trajectory of China’s military modernization. 

Party Affairs

Projecting the Next Politburo Standing Committee

by Alice L. Millervia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, March 1, 2016

Analysis of appointments to the Politburo Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party shows that over the past two decades three simple rules have been followed.

Economic Policy

Supply-side Structural Reform: Policy-makers Look For a Way Out

by Barry Naughtonvia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, March 1, 2016

Policy-making with respects to economic reform has been extremely inconsistent since early 2015.

Military Affairs

Promoting “Young Guards”: The Recent High Turnover in the PLA Leadership (Part II: Expansion and Escalation)

by Cheng Livia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, March 1, 2016

The most noticeable trend under the leadership of Xi Jinping since the 2012 National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been the continuing consolidation of power. In particular, the military has been a key arena in which Xi has strengthened both his personal power and his new administration’s authority. 

Military Affairs

China’s “Goldwater-Nichols”? The Long-Awaited PLA Reorganization Has Finally Arrived

by James Mulvenonvia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, March 1, 2016

On 31 December 2015, CCP supremo Xi Jinping announced the most sweeping reorganization of the People’s Liberation Army since the 1950s.

China-Taiwan-United States

The “1992 Consensus” – Adapting to the Future?

by Alan D. Rombergvia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, March 1, 2016

In the January 16, 2016, Taiwan presidential and legislative elections, the Democratic Progressive Party inflicted a devastating defeat on the incumbent Kuomintang.

Great Wall of China
Foreign Policy

Chinese Views on Global Governance Since 2008–9: Not Much New

by Michael D. Swainevia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, March 1, 2016

China’s ideology of global governance shows much continuity between the pre- and post-2008–9 periods. Authoritative Chinese views all generally indicate that China’s proposed changes to the existing international order—such as reforms to correct “unjust” arrangements, strengthen the influence of developing countries, expand the idea of state sovereignty into new areas of state behaviors, and buttress the equality of sovereignty—are adjustments only, not radical acts departing from it. 

Party Affairs

The 18th Central Committee Leadership With Comrade Xi Jinping As General Secretary

by Alice L. Millervia China Leadership Monitor
Wednesday, September 9, 2015

Authoritative party documents refer to the prescribed dynamic of elite politics in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) as its “collective leadership system.” 

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The China Leadership Monitor seeks to inform the American foreign policy community about current trends in China's leadership politics and in its foreign and domestic policies. The Monitor proceeds on the premise that as China's importance in international affairs grows, American policy-makers and the broader policy-interested public increasingly need analysis of politics among China's leadership that is accurate, comprehensive, systematic, current, and relevant to major areas of interest to the United States.

China Leadership Monitor analysis rests heavily on traditional China-watching methods of interpreting information in China's state-controlled media. Use of these methods was once universal among specialists in contemporary Chinese affairs. Although the use of these methods has declined as opportunities to study China using other approaches have opened up in recent decades, their value in following politics among China's top leadership has not. Monitor analysis also brings to bear some of the new avenues of information and insight that have opened up since the normalization of U.S.-China relations and China's policy "opening to the outside world" in the late 1970s.

The China Leadership Monitor website is updated with new analyses quarterly.

Subscribe here to receive a free copy in your email inbox every quarter.

The China Leadership Monitor is sponsored by the Hoover Institution on War, Revolution, and Peace at Stanford University. Its general editor is Hoover Institution research fellow Alice Miller.