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Tuesday, July 19, 2016

Summer 2016: Issue 50

Foreign Policy
Foreign Policy

Chinese Views on the Presumptive U.S. Presidential Candidates Hillary R. Clinton and Donald J. Trump

by Michael D. Swainevia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, July 19, 2016

This year’s presidential election, like past ones, features China and U.S.-China relations as a talking point for candidates from both parties. 

China-Taiwan-United States
Map of Taiwan
China-Taiwan-United States

Tsai Ing-wen Takes Office: A New Era in Cross-Strait Relations

by Alan D. Rombergvia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, July 19, 2016

In her May 20 inaugural address Tsai Ing-wen laid out in stark terms the daunting economic and social challenges that Taiwan faces in the months and years ahead, as well as her determination to meet those challenges. 

Military Affairs
Military Affairs

PLA Divestiture 2.0: We Mean It This Time

by James Mulvenonvia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, July 19, 2016

In November 2015, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) announced that the military’s remaining sanctioned participation in the PRC economy, known as “paid services,” would be phased out over the course of three years.

Military Affairs

Promoting “Young Guards”:
 The Recent High Turnover in the PLA Leadership (Part III: Personal and Political)

by Cheng Livia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, July 19, 2016

The bold moves toward reform of China’s military will have profound implications not only for Xi Jinping’s political standing in the lead-up to the next leadership turnover in 2017, but also for the development of civilian-military relations in the country and for the trajectory of China’s military modernization. 

Economic Policy
Economic Policy

Two Trains Running: Supply-Side Reform, SOE Reform and the Authoritative Personage

by Barry Naughtonvia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, July 19, 2016

The publication of a new article by “Authoritative Personage” on May 9, 2016, threw into the open two unresolved issues of Chinese policy: Who is making economic reform policy?  What is the mix between reform and growth? 

Party Affairs
Party Affairs

“Core” Leaders, “Authoritative Persons,” And Reform Pushback

by Alice L. Millervia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, July 19, 2016

References in PRC media in recent months to China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, as “core” leader, and publication in May of a long dissertation on economic policy appearing in the Chinese Communist Party’s official newspaper under the byline “An Authoritative Person” have provoked controversy among observers of Chinese leadership politics.  

E.g., 8 / 24 / 2016
E.g., 8 / 24 / 2016
Wednesday, September 9, 2015

Fall 2015: Issue 48

Tuesday, July 14, 2015

Summer 2015: Issue 47

Foreign Policy

by Michael D. Swaine Tuesday, July 14, 2015
article

China-Taiwan-United States

by Alan D. Romberg Tuesday, July 14, 2015
article

Military Affairs

by James Mulvenon Tuesday, July 14, 2015
article

Economic Policy

by Barry Naughton Tuesday, July 14, 2015
article

Party Affairs

by Alice L. Miller Tuesday, July 14, 2015
article

The Provinces

by Cheng Li Tuesday, July 14, 2015
article

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Military Affairs

PLA Divestiture 2.0: We Mean It This Time

by James Mulvenonvia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, July 19, 2016

In November 2015, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) announced that the military’s remaining sanctioned participation in the PRC economy, known as “paid services,” would be phased out over the course of three years.

Map of Taiwan
China-Taiwan-United States

Tsai Ing-wen Takes Office: A New Era in Cross-Strait Relations

by Alan D. Rombergvia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, July 19, 2016

In her May 20 inaugural address Tsai Ing-wen laid out in stark terms the daunting economic and social challenges that Taiwan faces in the months and years ahead, as well as her determination to meet those challenges. 

Foreign Policy

Chinese Views on the Presumptive U.S. Presidential Candidates Hillary R. Clinton and Donald J. Trump

by Michael D. Swainevia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, July 19, 2016

This year’s presidential election, like past ones, features China and U.S.-China relations as a talking point for candidates from both parties. 

Party Affairs

“Core” Leaders, “Authoritative Persons,” And Reform Pushback

by Alice L. Millervia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, July 19, 2016

References in PRC media in recent months to China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, as “core” leader, and publication in May of a long dissertation on economic policy appearing in the Chinese Communist Party’s official newspaper under the byline “An Authoritative Person” have provoked controversy among observers of Chinese leadership politics.  

Economic Policy

Two Trains Running: Supply-Side Reform, SOE Reform and the Authoritative Personage

by Barry Naughtonvia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, July 19, 2016

The publication of a new article by “Authoritative Personage” on May 9, 2016, threw into the open two unresolved issues of Chinese policy: Who is making economic reform policy?  What is the mix between reform and growth? 

Military Affairs

Promoting “Young Guards”:
 The Recent High Turnover in the PLA Leadership (Part III: Personal and Political)

by Cheng Livia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, July 19, 2016

The bold moves toward reform of China’s military will have profound implications not only for Xi Jinping’s political standing in the lead-up to the next leadership turnover in 2017, but also for the development of civilian-military relations in the country and for the trajectory of China’s military modernization. 

Party Affairs

Projecting the Next Politburo Standing Committee

by Alice L. Millervia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, March 1, 2016

Analysis of appointments to the Politburo Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party shows that over the past two decades three simple rules have been followed.

Economic Policy

Supply-side Structural Reform: Policy-makers Look For a Way Out

by Barry Naughtonvia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, March 1, 2016

Policy-making with respects to economic reform has been extremely inconsistent since early 2015.

Military Affairs

Promoting “Young Guards”: The Recent High Turnover in the PLA Leadership (Part II: Expansion and Escalation)

by Cheng Livia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, March 1, 2016

The most noticeable trend under the leadership of Xi Jinping since the 2012 National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been the continuing consolidation of power. In particular, the military has been a key arena in which Xi has strengthened both his personal power and his new administration’s authority. 

Military Affairs

China’s “Goldwater-Nichols”? The Long-Awaited PLA Reorganization Has Finally Arrived

by James Mulvenonvia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, March 1, 2016

On 31 December 2015, CCP supremo Xi Jinping announced the most sweeping reorganization of the People’s Liberation Army since the 1950s.

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The China Leadership Monitor seeks to inform the American foreign policy community about current trends in China's leadership politics and in its foreign and domestic policies. The Monitor proceeds on the premise that as China's importance in international affairs grows, American policy-makers and the broader policy-interested public increasingly need analysis of politics among China's leadership that is accurate, comprehensive, systematic, current, and relevant to major areas of interest to the United States.

China Leadership Monitor analysis rests heavily on traditional China-watching methods of interpreting information in China's state-controlled media. Use of these methods was once universal among specialists in contemporary Chinese affairs. Although the use of these methods has declined as opportunities to study China using other approaches have opened up in recent decades, their value in following politics among China's top leadership has not. Monitor analysis also brings to bear some of the new avenues of information and insight that have opened up since the normalization of U.S.-China relations and China's policy "opening to the outside world" in the late 1970s.

The China Leadership Monitor website is updated with new analyses quarterly.

Subscribe here to receive a free copy in your email inbox every quarter.

The China Leadership Monitor is sponsored by the Hoover Institution on War, Revolution, and Peace at Stanford University. Its general editor is Hoover Institution research fellow Alice Miller.