China Leadership Monitor

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Tuesday, March 1, 2016

Winter 2016: Issue 49

Foreign Policy
Great Wall of China
Foreign Policy

Chinese Views on Global Governance Since 2008–9: Not Much New

by Michael D. Swainevia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, March 1, 2016

China’s ideology of global governance shows much continuity between the pre- and post-2008–9 periods. Authoritative Chinese views all generally indicate that China’s proposed changes to the existing international order—such as reforms to correct “unjust” arrangements, strengthen the influence of developing countries, expand the idea of state sovereignty into new areas of state behaviors, and buttress the equality of sovereignty—are adjustments only, not radical acts departing from it. 

China-Taiwan-United States
China-Taiwan-United States

The “1992 Consensus” – Adapting to the Future?

by Alan D. Rombergvia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, March 1, 2016

In the January 16, 2016, Taiwan presidential and legislative elections, the Democratic Progressive Party inflicted a devastating defeat on the incumbent Kuomintang.

Military Affairs
Military Affairs

China’s “Goldwater-Nichols”? The Long-Awaited PLA Reorganization Has Finally Arrived

by James Mulvenonvia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, March 1, 2016

On 31 December 2015, CCP supremo Xi Jinping announced the most sweeping reorganization of the People’s Liberation Army since the 1950s.

Military Affairs

Promoting “Young Guards”: The Recent High Turnover in the PLA Leadership (Part II: Expansion and Escalation)

by Cheng Livia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, March 1, 2016

The most noticeable trend under the leadership of Xi Jinping since the 2012 National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been the continuing consolidation of power. In particular, the military has been a key arena in which Xi has strengthened both his personal power and his new administration’s authority. 

Economic Policy
Economic Policy

Supply-side Structural Reform: Policy-makers Look For a Way Out

by Barry Naughtonvia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, March 1, 2016

Policy-making with respects to economic reform has been extremely inconsistent since early 2015.

Party Affairs
Party Affairs

Projecting the Next Politburo Standing Committee

by Alice L. Millervia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, March 1, 2016

Analysis of appointments to the Politburo Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party shows that over the past two decades three simple rules have been followed.

E.g., 6 / 4 / 2016
E.g., 6 / 4 / 2016
Wednesday, September 9, 2015

Fall 2015: Issue 48

Tuesday, July 14, 2015

Summer 2015: Issue 47

Foreign Policy

by Michael D. Swaine Tuesday, July 14, 2015
article

China-Taiwan-United States

by Alan D. Romberg Tuesday, July 14, 2015
article

Military Affairs

by James Mulvenon Tuesday, July 14, 2015
article

Economic Policy

by Barry Naughton Tuesday, July 14, 2015
article

Party Affairs

by Alice L. Miller Tuesday, July 14, 2015
article

The Provinces

by Cheng Li Tuesday, July 14, 2015
article

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Party Affairs

Projecting the Next Politburo Standing Committee

by Alice L. Millervia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, March 1, 2016

Analysis of appointments to the Politburo Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party shows that over the past two decades three simple rules have been followed.

Economic Policy

Supply-side Structural Reform: Policy-makers Look For a Way Out

by Barry Naughtonvia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, March 1, 2016

Policy-making with respects to economic reform has been extremely inconsistent since early 2015.

Military Affairs

Promoting “Young Guards”: The Recent High Turnover in the PLA Leadership (Part II: Expansion and Escalation)

by Cheng Livia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, March 1, 2016

The most noticeable trend under the leadership of Xi Jinping since the 2012 National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been the continuing consolidation of power. In particular, the military has been a key arena in which Xi has strengthened both his personal power and his new administration’s authority. 

Military Affairs

China’s “Goldwater-Nichols”? The Long-Awaited PLA Reorganization Has Finally Arrived

by James Mulvenonvia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, March 1, 2016

On 31 December 2015, CCP supremo Xi Jinping announced the most sweeping reorganization of the People’s Liberation Army since the 1950s.

China-Taiwan-United States

The “1992 Consensus” – Adapting to the Future?

by Alan D. Rombergvia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, March 1, 2016

In the January 16, 2016, Taiwan presidential and legislative elections, the Democratic Progressive Party inflicted a devastating defeat on the incumbent Kuomintang.

Great Wall of China
Foreign Policy

Chinese Views on Global Governance Since 2008–9: Not Much New

by Michael D. Swainevia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, March 1, 2016

China’s ideology of global governance shows much continuity between the pre- and post-2008–9 periods. Authoritative Chinese views all generally indicate that China’s proposed changes to the existing international order—such as reforms to correct “unjust” arrangements, strengthen the influence of developing countries, expand the idea of state sovereignty into new areas of state behaviors, and buttress the equality of sovereignty—are adjustments only, not radical acts departing from it. 

Party Affairs

The 18th Central Committee Leadership With Comrade Xi Jinping As General Secretary

by Alice L. Millervia China Leadership Monitor
Wednesday, September 9, 2015

Authoritative party documents refer to the prescribed dynamic of elite politics in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) as its “collective leadership system.” 

Economic Policy

Reform Agenda In Turmoil: Can Policy-Makers Regain The Initiative?

by Barry Naughtonvia China Leadership Monitor
Wednesday, September 9, 2015

The stock market turmoil in China revealed a certain amount of disarray in the top-down economic policy process designed by the Third Plenum. 

Military Affairs

Promoting “Young Guards”:
The Recent High Turnover In The PLA Leadership (Part I: Purges And Reshuffles)

by Cheng Livia China Leadership Monitor
Wednesday, September 9, 2015

A key component in Xi Jinping’s consolidation of power has centered on the military domain. 

Beijing, China
Military Affairs

So Crooked They Have To Screw Their Pants On—Part 3: The Guo Boxiong Edition

by James Mulvenonvia China Leadership Monitor
Wednesday, September 9, 2015

On 30 July, the Central Committee announced that General Guo Boxiong, who served as vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission between 2002 and 2012, was expelled from the Chinese Communist Party and handed over to prosecutors for accepting bribes. 

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The China Leadership Monitor seeks to inform the American foreign policy community about current trends in China's leadership politics and in its foreign and domestic policies. The Monitor proceeds on the premise that as China's importance in international affairs grows, American policy-makers and the broader policy-interested public increasingly need analysis of politics among China's leadership that is accurate, comprehensive, systematic, current, and relevant to major areas of interest to the United States.

China Leadership Monitor analysis rests heavily on traditional China-watching methods of interpreting information in China's state-controlled media. Use of these methods was once universal among specialists in contemporary Chinese affairs. Although the use of these methods has declined as opportunities to study China using other approaches have opened up in recent decades, their value in following politics among China's top leadership has not. Monitor analysis also brings to bear some of the new avenues of information and insight that have opened up since the normalization of U.S.-China relations and China's policy "opening to the outside world" in the late 1970s.

The China Leadership Monitor website is updated with new analyses quarterly.

Subscribe here to receive a free copy in your email inbox every quarter.

The China Leadership Monitor is sponsored by the Hoover Institution on War, Revolution, and Peace at Stanford University. Its general editor is Hoover Institution research fellow Alice Miller.