The problem is that, if one of the children gets a new toy, all of the other kids want a new toy, too. Nor is this remark flippant, since a crucial issue here is the emotional maturity of the government, state, and population in question: matters of reliability and self-restraint. One might make a strong case for the possession of a deterrent nuclear capability by Poland or South Korea, but how then to deny the “right” of deeply troubled Turkey (a NATO member) or even hostile Iran to acquire a nuclear arsenal?
In the latter case, the answer appears obvious to us: Iran could not be trusted and might well initiate first-use—or, as a minimum, become the de facto regional hegemon. But from the Iranian perspective, that is a gross and intolerable double standard. As for Turkey, possession of a nuclear capability would further exacerbate the nuclear arms race already underway in the Middle East and South Asia.
And the strategic math is not simple addition. Adding additional nuclear powers does not increase the chance of nuclear use by one, or two, or three, but exponentially.
Regarding the interests of the United States, staunch opposition to nuclear proliferation is of the highest importance, both because important American clients—above all, Israel—are the likeliest first-use targets, but also because of the potential, however remote, of millenarian terrorists acquiring nuclear weapons or the control thereof.
The gravest threat—again, however irrational it may appear to us—comes from regimes led by apocalyptic visionaries. Iran leaps to mind (but we should worry about the changing tone in Pakistan, as well). While the madcap, if entertaining, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been removed from office and the Shia cartel holding power is reputed to plot rationally (if savagely), the future of Iran is far less predictable and, perhaps, far less stable than we currently grasp.
The best policy, then, is “No new nuclear powers.” On the other hand, the worst policy is the creeping unilateral U.S. nuclear disarmament envisioned by the Obama administration.
