The Hoover Institution hosts the Chinese Economy in the Long Run on March 6-7, 2025. 

How did China go from being the wealthiest and most innovative society in the world circa 1000 to economic decline 500 years later? How did it grow fast enough to achieve middle-income status during the late 20th century? Is China poised to break into the ranks of high-income countries at present? The Working Group on Long-Run Prosperity is convening a distinguished group of economists, historians, and political scientists from around the world to address questions about China’s economic growth and stagnation over the past 1000 years.

This conference is by invitation only.

Thursday, March 6th
Time Content Presenters

8:30 AM

Breakfast

--

9:00 AM

Welcome

Stephen Haber, Hoover Institution & Stanford University

9:15 AM

Traditional Chinese Lending Markets

Paper: "Loans and Lenders: Specialization, Competition, and Integration in Late Imperial and Republican-Era Lending Markets” by Matthew Lowenstein

Presenter: Matthew Lowenstein, Hoover Institution
(slides) (research brief)

Discussant: Thomas Sargent, Hoover Institution & NYU 
(slides)

Discussant: Hoyt Bleakley, Hoover Institution & University of Michigan
(slides)

Chair: Amit Seru, Hoover Institution & Stanford University 

10:30 AM

Break

--

11:00 AM

The Rise and Fall of Early Chinese Paper Money

Paper: “The Rise and Demise of Paper Money in Imperial China, 1000-1500: Fiscal Innovation, Market Growth, and Monetary Transitions” by Richard Von Glahn
 

Presenter: Richard Von Glahn, UCLA 
(research brief)

Discussant: Bill Summerhill, Hoover Institution & UCLA 

Discussant: Meng Zhang, UCLA

Chair: Stephen Haber, Hoover Institution & Stanford University

12:15 PM

Lunch

--

1:15 PM

The World's First Monetary Policy: Paper Money under the Mongols

Paper: “The Rise and Fall of Paper Money in Yuan China, 1260-1368” by Hanhui Guan, Nuno Palma, and Meng Wu

Presenter: Meng Wu, Machester Metropolitan University
(slides) (research brief)

Discussant: Ross Levine, Hoover Institution 
(slides)

Discussant: Matthew Sommer, Stanford University 

Chair: Valerie Ramey, Hoover Institution

2:30 PM

Break

--

3:00 PM

State Formation and Warfare from Ancient China to Present 

Paper: “States and Wars: China's Long March Towards Unity and its Consequences, 221 BC - 1911 AD” by Shuo Chen and Debin Ma
 

Presenter: Debin Ma, Tsinghua University
(slides) (research brief)

Discussant: Mark Dincecco, University of Michigan  
(slides)

Discussant: Jean-Laurent Rosenthal, Caltech

Chair: Stephen Haber, Hoover Institution & Stanford University

4:15 PM

Conclusion of March 6th program

--

6:00 PM

Dinner

--

Friday, March 7th
Time Content Presenters

8:30 AM

Breakfast 

--

9:00 AM

The Origins of China’s Totalitarianism

Paper: “Institutional Genes: The Origins of China’s Institutions and Totalitarianism” by Chenggang Xu

Presenter: Chenggang Xu, Stanford University
(slides) (research brief)

Discussant: Frank Dikotter, Hoover Institution 

Discussant: Dorothy Kronick, UC Berkeley 
(slides)

Chair: Victor Shih, UC San Diego

10:15 AM

Break

--

10:45 AM

Crony Capitalism in Modern China

Paper: “Special Deals with Chinese Characteristics” by Chong-en Bai, Chang-Tai Hsieh, and Zheng Song

"The Rise of State-Connected Private Owners in China" by Chong-En Bai, Chang-Tai Hsieh, Zheng Song, and Xin Wang

Presenter: Chang-Tai Hsieh, University of Chicago 
(slides) (research brief)

Discussant: Zhiguo He, Stanford University 
(slides)

Discussant: Nan Jia, University of Southern California 

Chair: Paola Sapienza, Hoover Institution 

12:00 PM

Closing Remarks

Amit Seru, Hoover Institution & Stanford University 

12:05 PM

Lunch / Conclusion of conference

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