Emil Mihaylov

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Businesses Say Their Travel Expenditures Won’t Return To Pre-COVID-19 Levels

by David Altig, Jose Maria Barrero, Nick Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Brent Meyer, Emil Mihaylov, Nick Parkervia Chicago Booth Review
Wednesday, October 7, 2020

In the months (and years) following the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, airline travel was fundamentally altered. Despite a host of new measures to increase safety, not until April 2004 did airlines see passenger loads reach pre-9/11 levels. The COVID-19 pandemic is having an even more dramatic impact on plane travel, according to current and former airline executives.

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Analysis and Commentary

Post-COVID Recovery? Not So Fast, My Friend

by David Altig, Jose Maria Barrero, Nick Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Brent Meyer, Emil Mihaylov, Nick Parkervia Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Thursday, October 1, 2020
The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Analysis and Commentary

Businesses Anticipate Slashing Post-Pandemic Travel Budgets

by David Altig, Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Brent Meyer, Emil Mihaylov, Nick Parkervia Becker Friedman Institute for Economics at the University of Chicago
Friday, September 18, 2020

Firms expect to cut pre-pandemic travel expenditures by nearly 30 percent when concerns over COVID-19 subside.

Articles
Analysis and Commentary

Businesses Anticipate Slashing Postpandemic Travel Budgets

by David Altig, Jose Maria Barrero, Nick Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Brent Meyer, Emil Mihaylov, Nick Parkervia Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Tuesday, August 4, 2020

In the months (and years) following 9/11, airline travel was fundamentally altered. Despite a host of new measures to increase safety, not until April 2004 did airlines see passenger loads reach pre-9/11 levels. When thinking about how that crisis compares to the current pandemic, current and former airline execs say the current pandemic is having a much more significant impact on travel than 9/11 did. 

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Economic Uncertainty In The Wake Of The COVID-19 Pandemic

by David Altig, Scott R. Baker, Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, Phil Bunn, Scarlet Chen, Steven J. Davis, Julia Leather, Brent Meyer, Emil Mihaylov, Paul Mizen, Nicholas Parker, Thomas Renault, Pawel Smietanka, Greg Thwaitesvia VoxEu.org (Centre for Economic Policy Research)
Friday, July 24, 2020

Measures of economic uncertainty derived from statistical models are not well suited to quickly capture shifts associated with sudden, surprise developments like the COVID-19 crisis, thus necessitating forward-looking measures. This column considers several such forward-looking indicators of economic uncertainty for the US and UK before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Economic Uncertainty Before And During The COVID-19 Pandemic

by David Altig, Scott R. Baker, Jose Maria Barrero, Nick Bloom, Phil Bunn, Scarlet Chen, Steven J. Davis, Julia Leather, Brent Meyer, Emil Mihaylov, Paul Mizen, Nick Parker, Thomas Renault, Pawel Smietanka, Greg Thwaitesvia Bank Underground
Thursday, July 23, 2020

The unprecedented scale and nature of the COVID-19 crisis has generated an extraordinary surge in economic uncertainty. In a recent paper we review what has happened to different indicators of uncertainty in the US and UK before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Three results emerge. All of the indicators that we consider show huge jumps in uncertainty in reaction to the pandemic and its economic fallout. 

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Analysis and Commentary

Economic Uncertainty Before And During The COVID-19 Pandemic

by David Altig, Scott R. Baker, Jose Maria Barrero, Nick Bloom, Phil Bunn, Scarlet Chen, Steven J. Davis, Brent Meyer, Emil Mihaylov, Paul Mizen, Nick Parker, Thomas Renault, Pawel Smietanka, Greg Thwaitesvia Becker Friedman Institute for Economics at the University of Chicago
Tuesday, June 30, 2020

Most indicators of economic uncertainty in the US and UK reached their highest values on record following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, with peaks varying among indicators and along differing timelines

Working Papers

Economic Uncertainty Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic

by David Altig, Scott R. Baker, Jose Maria Barrero, Nick Bloom, Phil Bunn, Scarlet Chen, Steven J. Davis, Julia Leather, Brent Meyer, Emil Mihaylov, Paul Mizen, Nick Parker, Thomas Renault, Pawel Smietanka, Greg Thwaitesvia Economics Working Papers
Thursday, June 11, 2020

Economics Working Paper 20111

Working Papers
Analysis and Commentary

U.S. Firms Foresee Intensifying Coronavirus Impact

by David Altig, Jose Maria Barrero, Nick Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Brent Meyer, Emil Mihaylov, Nick Parkervia Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Monday, May 4, 2020

In late March—even before many states had issued shelter-in-place, stay-at-home, or shutdown orders—we noted that firms were bracing for a huge negative impact on sales revenues from developments surrounding the coronavirus. 

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Analysis and Commentary

US Companies Are Bracing For A Big Blow From COVID-19

by David Altig, Jose Maria Barrero, Nick Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Brent Meyer, Emil Mihaylov, Nick Parkervia Chicago Booth Review
Thursday, March 26, 2020

The rapid unfolding of the COVID-19 pandemic has created grave concerns for the health and welfare of the US population and the economy. The economic worries are very apparent in financial markets. From the closing bell on February 21 through March 20, US equities fell more than 30 percent, and stock market volatility skyrocketed.

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