Today, Eyck Freymann and Michael Loftus explain the urgent need for the United States and its Pacific allies to coordinate their algorithmic targeting processes ahead of a war or crisis with China; Andrew Roberts and Peter Robinson explore the role of “great men” like Winston Churchill in world history; and Chester Finn says any reform to the federal pre-kindergarten program needs to focus simply on preparing kids to start school.
Security and Defense
The Selection Problem: Aligning Pacific Allies for Algorithmic Warfare
In a war over Taiwan, the key challenge for allied forces will not be finding targets but choosing among them, Hoover Fellow Eyck Freymann and coauthor Michael C. Loftus argue in this Hoover Institution Press essay. China can flood the battlespace with militia boats, dual-use ferries, and merchant ships carrying concealed missiles, they explain. This strategy could exhaust allies’ limited munitions and create devastating civilian casualties, fracturing the coalition. Freymann and Loftus stress that Pacific allies must agree now on shared rules for algorithmic targeting, before a crisis exploits allied gaps. As they show, algorithmic targeting has removed the old bottleneck in maritime war—finding targets—and replaced it with two others that scale far worse: limited munitions and political tolerance for error. Read more here.
Revitalizing History
Why Churchill Still Matters: Andrew Roberts on Great Men in History
What role should a focus on extraordinary individuals play in the study of history?
The Big Idea: In this special crossover edition of Secrets of Statecraft and Uncommon Knowledge, Andrew Roberts is the guest, interviewed by Peter M. Robinson. Roberts explains why Winston Churchill remains the ultimate example of a historical “great man,” and why such figures are worth scholars’ attention. Watch or listen here.
Education Policy
A Better Way to Reform Head Start
As the Trump administration embarks on reforms to the federal pre-kindergarten Head Start program, Senior Fellow Chester E. Finn Jr. argues in The Wall Street Journal that it “should aim for a deregulated Head Start that prepares needy 3- to 5-year-olds to succeed in kindergarten and beyond.” As Finn shows, in some states only around half of incoming pupils were “fully prepared to participate in the kindergarten curriculum.” Finn says that an extensive list of regulations governing the federal pre-K program is partly to blame for its lack of focus on student readiness, as is its disconnection from state-run programs. “What [Head Start] needs more than anything is a single-minded focus on getting kids ready for school,” Finn concludes. “So far, nobody in Washington has offered anything of the sort.” Read more here. [Subscription required.]
Meritocracy, Exams, and the Knowledge That Matters
What do a failed 19th-century Chinese civil exam and one of the deadliest wars in history have to do with how we hire, educate, and test people today?
The Big Idea: In this EconTalk conversation, Russ Roberts and education expert Daisy Christodoulou explore the history of exams in education and hiring. Christodoulou offers evidence that exam-tested skills are stubbornly domain-specific, suggesting that tests shouldn’t be interpreted as broad indicators of ability. The conversation goes on to explore meritocracy and the nature of testing and expertise. Watch or listen here.
Freedom Frequency
Adam Smith on the Test of a Nation
In this Labor Day greeting in the voice of Adam Smith published at Freedom Frequency, Senior Fellow Ross Levine shines a light on the Scottish philosopher’s views about labor. A just society must allow workers to achieve decent living conditions—beyond the mere needs of survival—while acknowledging the way work can dehumanize and spiritually impoverish those lives, Levine writes. At the same time, he cautions, improving the lot of the worker is not a matter of redistributing “riches” but of freeing an economy to grow. Only then can workers compete for better wages and a nation achieve “the cheerful and hearty state to all the different orders of the society,” he concludes. Read more here.
The Fiscal Effect of Expropriating Billionaire Wealth
Some progressive proposals treat taxing billionaires’ wealth as a major answer to America’s fiscal problems, Stanford economist Jeremy Bulow argues at Freedom Frequency. His essay tests that premise with a deliberately extreme thought experiment: Suppose the United States confiscated all personal wealth above $1 billion. Under highly optimistic assumptions, including no capital flight, no avoidance, and no discount on the resale of seized assets, Bulow writes, the expropriation would produce a one-time windfall whose savings on Treasury security interest would enable a 2% permanent increase in real consolidated government expenditures. He contrasts this with 2.4% real per capita growth per year over the last decade. Bulow says this arithmetic shows why billionaire taxes can only put a band-aid on budget problems. In his view, policymakers should close loopholes and enforce existing law; and if they wish to avoid large and widespread tax increases, they must confront inefficient public programs and spending growth with sustainable fiscal reform. Read more here.
Related Commentary