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Deterrence in the Drone Age

by Amy Zegartvia Analysis
Wednesday, November 26, 2014

It is often argued that deterrent signals are more credible when they are costly, but that ignores the domestic political will necessary to sustain costly signaling. Drones offer a compelling deterrent option precisely because they are low in cost and thus more likely to be politically sustainable.

Managing the Cyber Security Threat

by Abraham D. Sofaervia Analysis
Wednesday, November 26, 2014

The cyber threat is part of a transnational game, with low barriers of entry, increasing sophistication, increasing cost, and no prospect that any state will be victorious.  The U.S. needs to manage the risk by focusing on those aspects of cyber insecurity that relate to commerce and critical infrastructure, leaving traditional forms of intelligence and military activities unregulated; and by allowing private companies and individuals to use strong encryption or open source software without built-in vulnerabilities. 

Transnational Terrorism

by Stephen D. Krasnervia Analysis
Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Given the low probability of a mass casualty terrorist attack and the lack of new attacks since 9/11, the U.S. is probably devoting too many resources to fighting terrorism. However, no political leader could endorse this conclusion, so the challenge of counterterrorism policy is channeling the political will terrorism engenders effectively.

Moral Hazard and the Obama Doctrine

by James D. Fearonvia Analysis
Wednesday, November 26, 2014

The U.S. war against ISIL risks helping the enemy in the long run by lessening locals’ incentives to develop their own military and state capabilities, and that it also helps with the enemy’s recruitment and PR. The more the U.S. does militarily, the less our friends and allies in the region do.

Thoughts on Unconventional Threats and Terrorism

by Ambassador Karl W. Eikenberryvia Analysis
Wednesday, November 26, 2014

The term “unconventional threat” has often been an imprecise classification tool and has led to a focus on tactics at the expense of strategy in the U.S. struggle against transnational terrorists groups like Al Qaeda.  Combating transnational terrorism requires properly evaluating the threat terrorism poses, a deep understanding of geopolitical context surrounding a transnational terrorist group, and a willingness to be flexible in the tools used to mitigate risk, including focusing on improving countermeasures in the homeland. 

KTO KOVO?

by Coit Blackervia Analysis
Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Russia’s aggressive actions in the Ukraine are intended to signal to the West that there are limits to what Russia will accept in what it sees as aggressive Western action against Russia, even if Russia’s intervention comes at the cost of a split Ukraine. Ukraine will likely remain a frozen conflict, with the real issue being “for how long, and what cost, Putin will seek to impose his vision of the new Russia on the neighboring states of the region”.

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Strategika – “China and Japan: A Tense Equilibrium” with Mark Moyar

by Mark Moyarvia Strategika
Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Why Chinese-Japanese tensions are unlikely to dissipate soon—and why that may prove dangerous.

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Strategika – “What China Really Wants” with Angelo Codevilla

by Angelo M. Codevillavia Strategika
Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Explaining the nature of Chinese ambition in East Asia.

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Strategika – “Chinese-Japanese Tensions” with Miles Maochun Yu

by Miles Maochun Yuvia Strategika
Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Exploring a history of animosity between two Asian giants.

Interviews

Paul Gregory on the John Batchelor Show (19:19)

interview with Paul R. Gregoryvia John Batchelor Show
Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Research Fellow Paul Gregory discusses Transparency International's ranking of Gazprom on the John Batchelor Show.

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