On The Prospects For Higher Economic Growth

Tuesday, July 18, 2017
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Hoover and AEI economists release white paper on comprehensive economic policy reforms to achieve 3 percent growth.

About the authors:

John F. Cogan is the Leonard and Shirley Ely Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University and served as Deputy Director of the U.S. Office of Management and Budget; Glenn Hubbard is Dean and Russell L. Carson Professor of Finance and Economics, Graduate School of Business, Columbia University and served as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers; John B. Taylor is the Mary and Robert Raymond Professor of Economics and the George P. Shultz Senior Fellow in Economics at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University and served as Under Secretary of Treasury for International Affairs; and Kevin Warsh is the Shepard Family Distinguished Visiting Fellow in Economics at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University and served as a Governor of the Federal Reserve Board.

Excerpt:

Since the economic recovery began eight years ago, the rate of economic growth has averaged only two percent per year, the weakest economic expansion since World War II. Participation in the labor force is near its lowest level since the malaise of the late 1970s. The country is experiencing the worst five-year run for productivity ever measured outside of a recession. And the median wage is growing only slowly.

We do not share the view that the recent period of weak economic growth was simply an inevitable result of the financial crisis.  Economic recoveries tend to be stronger after deep recessions, and any residual headwinds from the crisis should have long been remedied had pro-growth policies been adopted.  Historically, some post-crisis periods are marked by lower economic growth, but we believe that the poor conduct of economic policy bears much of that burden.