Governance In An Emerging New World

Tuesday, November 5, 2019

Fall Series, Issue 919

Emerging Technology and Nuclear Non-Proliferation
From the Conveners
From the Conveners

A Letter from the Conveners

via Governance In An Emerging New World
Tuesday, November 5, 2019

Sharp changes are afoot throughout the globe. Demographics are shifting, technology is advancing at unprecedented rates, and these changes are being felt everywhere. How should we develop strategies to deal with this emerging new world? We can begin by understanding it. First, there is the changing composition of the world population, which will have a profound impact on societies. Developed countries are experiencing falling fertility rates and increasing life expectancy. As working-age populations shrink and pensions and care costs for the elderly rise, it becomes harder for governments to afford other productive investments.

Essays
Essays

Nuclear Non-Proliferation: Steps For The 21st Century

by Ernest J. Monizvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Tuesday, November 5, 2019

The dual nature of nuclear fission—both risk and opportunity—was recognized almost immediately after the seminal physics discoveries of the late 1930s and was articulated as a matter of policy in Eisenhower’s consequential Atoms for Peace speech in 1953. The following years and decades saw both the continued build-up of nuclear weapons arsenals, eventually reaching tens of thousands of weapons, and Western assistance to Iran, India, Pakistan, Israel, and others in starting nuclear reactor programs, often with the supply of high-enriched uranium (HEU) for fuel. The irony of having U.S.-supplied weapons-useable material in HEU fuel sitting in Tehran even today is not lost on many participants in the non-proliferation dialogue.

About the Program

E.g., 11 / 16 / 2019
E.g., 11 / 16 / 2019
Monday, April 22, 2019

Spring Series, Issue 519

The Middle East in an Emerging World
Monday, April 8, 2019

Spring Series, Issue 419

Health And The Changing Environment

From the Conveners

Monday, April 8, 2019
article

Observations From The Roundtable

Monday, April 8, 2019
article

Essays

by Milana Boukhman Trounce Monday, April 8, 2019
essay
by Kari Nadeau Monday, April 8, 2019
essay
by Lucy Shapiro, Harley McAdams Monday, April 8, 2019
essay
by Stephen R. Quake Monday, April 8, 2019
essay
Monday, February 25, 2019

Winter Series, Issue 319

Emerging Technology And America’s National Security

From the Conveners

Monday, February 25, 2019
article

Observations From The Roundtable

by Admiral James O. Ellis Jr., George P. Shultz Monday, February 25, 2019
article

Essays

by Philip Breedlove, Margaret E. Kosal Monday, February 25, 2019
article
by T.X. Hammes Monday, February 25, 2019
article
by Admiral Gary Roughead, Emelia Spencer Probasco, Ralph Semmel Monday, February 25, 2019
article
Monday, February 4, 2019

Winter Series, Issue 219

Europe in an Emerging World

From the Conveners

Monday, February 4, 2019
article

Observations From The Roundtable

by Jim Hoagland Monday, February 4, 2019
article

Essays

by Caroline Atkinson Monday, February 4, 2019
essay
by Christopher Caldwell Monday, February 4, 2019
essay
by William Drozdiak Monday, February 4, 2019
essay
by Jens Suedekum Monday, February 4, 2019
essay

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From the Conveners

A Letter from the Conveners

via Governance In An Emerging New World
Tuesday, May 14, 2019

Sharp changes are afoot throughout the globe. Demographics are shifting, technology is advancing at unprecedented rates, and these changes are being felt everywhere. How should we develop strategies to deal with this emerging new world? We can begin by understanding it. First, there is the changing composition of the world population, which will have a profound impact on societies. Developed countries are experiencing falling fertility rates and increasing life expectancy. As working-age populations shrink and pensions and care costs for the elderly rise, it becomes harder for governments to afford other productive investments.

Observations From The Roundtable

Observations from the Roundtable: Emerging Technology and the U.S. Economy

via Governance In An Emerging New World
Tuesday, May 14, 2019

Classical approaches can work. That was the message delivered by discussants at our roundtable on the interaction of emerging technologies with the domestic economy. Education, migration, and responsive regulatory policy were all offered as examples of policies that have worked before to help the United States economy take advantage of rapid changes while mitigating their disruptions. It's tempting to frame rapid technological change as an unprecedented challenge for this country, and one requiring unprecedented forms of governance. Similar arguments were, for example, to try to deal with the unexpected inflation of the early 1970s through "new methods" such as draconian economy-wide wage and price controls. Those failed spectacularly and sent the U.S. economy on a decade-long spiral. Our discussants therefore warned against throwing out orthodox policies for untried alternatives, as the result of doing so would be to replace one set of uncertainties—the complexity of the coming change itself—with two.

Observations From The Roundtable

Observations from the Roundtable: Stability in an Emerging World

via Governance In An Emerging New World
Tuesday, May 14, 2019

The world’s population is being reordered. From 2020 to 2060, the working-age populations (15-64) of Europe, South Korea, and Japan are projected to shrink by over 140 million people, and, come 2060, Germany and Japan will have more people over the age of 70 than under the age of 20. The U.S. working-age population will also likely grow in that period, but as the U.S. Census Bureau has observed, the growth will be driven primarily by immigration. At the same time, sub-Saharan Africa’s working-age population will increase by nearly one billion. That region plus nine countries—India, Pakistan, Egypt, Iraq, the Philippines, Afghanistan, Guatemala, and Honduras—will account for the vast majority of the world’s new working-age men and women, over 1.4 billion in total.

Essays

Pathways To Economic Opportunity In The 21st Century: A Case Study On How The California Community Colleges Modernized To Deliver On Its Workforce Mission

by Van Ton-Quinlivanvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, May 6, 2019

Since 2012, the California Community Colleges (CCC) system has been driving transformation of its workforce mission to better address labor market needs. From 2012–2018, the California Community Colleges Chancellor’s Office (CCCCO) deepened its commitment to modernizing the system’s career and technical education (CTE) programs and infrastructure. The approach taken by the CCCCO was informed by two public policy principles surfaced through the convenings of the California Economic Summit: 1) approach the State as a set of regional economies rather than a monolithic one, and 2) expand CTE capacity in order to provide skilled workers needed by regional economies.

Essays

The Migration Challenge

by James F. Hollifieldvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, May 6, 2019

International migration has been steadily increasing in every region of the globe since the end of the Second World War. In 2017, approximately 258 million people reside outside of their country of birth (3.4 percent of the world’s population) and over the past half century, individual mobility has increased at a steady pace. Tens of millions of people cross borders on a daily basis, which adds up to roughly two billion annually. International mobility is part of a broader trend of globalization, which includes trade in goods and services, investments and capital flows, greater ease of travel, and a veritable explosion of information. While trade and capital flows are the twin pillars of globalization, migration is the third leg of the stool on which the global economy rests.

Essays

The Commercialization of Decision-Making: Towards a Regulatory Framework to Address Machine Bias over the Internet

by Dipayan Ghoshvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, May 6, 2019

The consumer internet has exacerbated the discrimination problem. The business model that sits behind the front end of the internet industry is one that focuses on the unchecked collection of personal information, the continual creation and refinement of behavioral profiles on the individual user, and the development of algorithms that curate content. These actions all perpetuate the new pareto optimal reality of the commercial logic underlying the modern digitalized media ecosystem: that every act executed by a firm, whether a transfer of data or an injection of content, is by its nature necessarily done in the commercial interests of the firm because technological progress has enabled such granular profiteering. 

Essays

How Will Machine Learning Transform the Labor Market?

by Erik Brynjolfsson, Daniel Rock, Prasanna Tambevia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, May 6, 2019

The twenty-first century will be the century of intelligent machines. Artificial intelligence (AI) has begun to transform the economy as it as enables machines to do more and more of the cognitive tasks that were once done only by humans. In the coming decade, many existing tasks will be replaced by machines, while new ones will emerge. Almost every job will be affected in some way and most will need to be redesigned. Businesses will rise and fall depending on how well they understand, foster and harness the changing skills that are needed to be productive. Economies will thrive if they can create and update the institutions needed to create these skills.

From the Conveners

A Letter from the Conveners

via Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, May 6, 2019

Sharp changes are afoot throughout the globe. Demographics are shifting, technology is advancing at unprecedented rates, and these changes are being felt everywhere. How should we develop strategies to deal with this emerging new world? We can begin by understanding it.

Essays

Islamic Republic of Iran in an Age of Global Transitions: Challenges for a Theocratic Iran

by Abbas Milani, Roya Pakzadvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, April 22, 2019

For the last 150 years, Iran, like most countries in the industrializing world, has experienced the tumults of two epochal global revolutions—the industrial revolution that changed the nature of labor and now the advent of the “second Machine Age,”2 which is changing the nature of not just labor, but life and leisure, knowledge and information. In the same period, Iran has gone through the travails of two domestic revolutions—the first in 1905-07 when the country’s elite tried to introduce democracy and modernity  to the country, and the second in 1979 when a democratic mass movement overthrew the monarchy but eventually begot the rise of a theocratic despotism keen on dismantling as much of modernity as possible.

Essays

The Impact of Demographic and Digital Transformations on Turkey’s Governance Deficit

by Aykan Erdemirvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, April 22, 2019

Turkey is a country of paradoxes. Ankara has been a NATO member since 1952 but is about to receive the S-400 air defense system from the transatlantic alliance’s main adversary, Russia, and consequently face sanctions from its longtime ally, the United States. Ankara has been undertaking accession negotiations with the European Union since 2005, but Turkish officials happen to be deeply Eurosceptic, frequently hurling insults at their European counterparts and targeting Western values.

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About the Program

The George P. Shultz Project on Governance in an Emerging New World explores the challenges and opportunities for our democracy, our economy, and our security posed by emerging technologies and societal changes.

George Shultz has observed that the world ahead will not be like the world behind us. His Project on Governance in an Emerging New World explores the challenge to governance posed by changing demographics, the information and communications revolution, emerging technologies, and new means of production of goods near where they are used. Its contributors aim to understand the impact of these global transformations on our democracy, our economy, and our national security and inform strategies for how best to proceed in a rapidly changing world.

New and rapid societal and technological changes are complicating governance around the globe and challenging traditional thinking. Demographic changes and migration are having a profound effect as some populations age and shrink while other countries expand. The information and communications revolution is making governance much more difficult and heightening the impact of diversity. Emerging technologies, especially artificial intelligence and automation, are bringing about a new industrial revolution, disrupting workforces and increasing military capabilities of both states and non-state actors. And new means of production such as additive manufacturing and automation are changing how, where, and what we produce. These changes are coming quickly, faster than governments have historically been able to respond.

Led by Hoover Distinguished Fellow George P. Shultz, his Project on Governance in an Emerging New World aims to understand these changes and inform strategies that both address the challenges and take advantage of the opportunities afforded by these dramatic shifts.

The project will feature a series of papers and events addressing how these changes are affecting democratic processes, the economy, and national security of the United States, and how they are affecting countries and regions, including Russia, China, Europe, Africa, and Latin America. A set of essays by the participants will accompany each event and provide thoughtful analysis of the challenges and opportunities.

For more information on the program, click here.

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