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Rising Policy Uncertainty

by Steven J. Davisvia Economics Working Papers
Thursday, September 5, 2019

Economics Working Paper 19110

Analysis and Commentary

Forward Guidance: Is It Useful Away From The Lower Bound?

by Lilia Maliar, John B. Taylorvia The National Bureau Of Economic Research
Tuesday, July 30, 2019

During the recent economic crisis, when nominal interest rates were at their effective lower bounds, central banks used forward guidance announcements about future policy rates to conduct their monetary policy. Many policymakers believe that forward guidance will remain in use after the end of the crisis; however, there is uncertainty about its effectiveness. 

Analysis and Commentary

The Effects Of Multispecialty Group Practice On Health Care Spending And Use

by Laurence Baker, M. Kate Bundorf, Anne Beeson Royaltyvia The National Bureau Of Economic Research
Friday, July 26, 2019
U.S. physicians are increasingly joining multispecialty group practices. In this paper, we analyze how a primary care physician’s practice type – single (SSP) versus multispecialty practice (MSP) – affects health care spending and use.
Analysis and Commentary

The Value Of Government Debt

by John H. Cochranevia National Burea of Economic Research
Tuesday, July 23, 2019

The market value of government debt equals the present discounted value of primary surpluses. Applying present value decompositions from asset pricing to this valuation equation, I find that half of the variation in the market value of debt to GDP ratio corresponds to varying forecasts of future primary surpluses, and half to varying discount rates. Variation in expected growth rates is unimportant.

Surveying Business Uncertainty

by David Altig, Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Brent Meyer, Nicholas Parkervia Economics Working Papers
Monday, May 27, 2019

Economics Working Paper 19107

Modern Monetary Theory: Cautionary Tales from Latin America

by Sebastian Edwardsvia Economics Working Papers
Thursday, April 25, 2019

Economics Working Paper 19106

Policy News and Stock Market Volatility

by Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Kyle Kostvia Economics Working Papers
Monday, March 25, 2019

Economics Working Paper 19105