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Analysis and Commentary

Private Equity Buyouts And Their Effects

by Steven J. Davis, John Haltiwanger, Kyle Handley, Ben Lipsius, Josh Lerner, Javier Mirandavia VoxEu.org (Centre for Economic Policy Research)
Tuesday, October 22, 2019

Private equity buyouts arouse intense interest among investors and business owners as well as policymakers and politicians, but the difficulty of assembling the data needed for a systematic evaluation makes assessing their effects hard. This column uses data on thousands of buyouts in the US to examine the effects on employment, job reallocation, productivity, and worker compensation. The findings suggest that the effects differ greatly by type of buyout, with the credit conditions at the time of buyout, and with the post-buyout evolution of credit conditions and the macroeconomy, casting doubt on the efficacy of ‘one-size-fits-all’ policy prescriptions for private equity.

Analysis and Commentary

Policy Uncertainty In Japan

by Elif C. Arbatli, Steven J. Davis, Arata Ito, Naoko Miakevia Becker Friedman Institute for Economics at the University of Chicago
Tuesday, October 15, 2019

In the aftermath of the Financial Crisis (2007-08) and the Great Recession (2007-09), households and firms faced lots of uncertainty, not only about when and how the economy would recover, but also confusion on whether and how the administration, Congress, and the Federal Reserve would react. For families considering the purchase of a new car or a move to another city for a job, and for businesses considering new hires or a plant expansion, this policy uncertainty meant that the prudent choice was often wait-and-see.

Analysis and Commentary

Fewer Children Left Behind: Lessons From The Dramatic Achievement Gains Of The 1990s And 2000s

by Michael J. Petrillivia Thomas B. Fordham Institute
Tuesday, October 15, 2019

Earlier this year, speaking in front of the Education Writers Association, Secretary Betsy DeVos said that decades of reform efforts and increased social spending, both inside and outside of schools, “hasn’t ultimately improved anything for any students, particularly not for the most vulnerable students.” It’s a standard refrain from DeVos, and many other reformers as well, when making the case that past efforts have failed and it’s time to try something different. Even my friend Rick Hess, after acknowledging big gains in math achievement, has argued that “a fair assessment” of the past two decades of reform “would admit that there has been a lot of action, but not much in the way of demonstrated improvement.”

The Economic Effects of Private Equity Buyouts

by Steven J. Davis, John Haltiwanger, Kyle Handley, Ben Lipsius, Josh Lerner, Javier Mirandavia Economics Working Papers
Friday, October 4, 2019

Economics Working Paper 19112

Rising Policy Uncertainty

by Steven J. Davisvia Economics Working Papers
Thursday, September 5, 2019

Economics Working Paper 19110

Policy Uncertainty in Japan

by Elif C. Arbatli, Steven J. Davis, Arata Ito, Naoko Miakevia Economics Working Papers
Monday, August 5, 2019

Economics Working Paper 19109

Analysis and Commentary

Forward Guidance: Is It Useful Away From The Lower Bound?

by Lilia Maliar, John B. Taylorvia The National Bureau Of Economic Research
Tuesday, July 30, 2019

During the recent economic crisis, when nominal interest rates were at their effective lower bounds, central banks used forward guidance announcements about future policy rates to conduct their monetary policy. Many policymakers believe that forward guidance will remain in use after the end of the crisis; however, there is uncertainty about its effectiveness. 

Analysis and Commentary

The Effects Of Multispecialty Group Practice On Health Care Spending And Use

by Laurence Baker, M. Kate Bundorf, Anne Beeson Royaltyvia The National Bureau Of Economic Research
Friday, July 26, 2019
U.S. physicians are increasingly joining multispecialty group practices. In this paper, we analyze how a primary care physician’s practice type – single (SSP) versus multispecialty practice (MSP) – affects health care spending and use.
Analysis and Commentary

The Value Of Government Debt

by John H. Cochranevia National Burea of Economic Research
Tuesday, July 23, 2019

The market value of government debt equals the present discounted value of primary surpluses. Applying present value decompositions from asset pricing to this valuation equation, I find that half of the variation in the market value of debt to GDP ratio corresponds to varying forecasts of future primary surpluses, and half to varying discount rates. Variation in expected growth rates is unimportant.

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