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Evolution of Modern Business Cycle Models: Accounting for the Great Recession

by Patrick J. Kehoe, Virgiliu Midrigan, Elena Pastorinovia Economics Working Papers
Friday, October 16, 2020

Economics Working Paper 20121

Blank Section (Placeholder)EssaysAnalysis and Commentary

Due Diligence And The US Defend Forward Cyber Strategy

by Eric Talbot Jensen, Sean Wattsvia Aegis Paper Series
Thursday, October 15, 2020

This paper analyzes the international law principle of due diligence and its potential role in the United States’ emerging Defend Forward cyber strategy. The authors begin with a brief review of due diligence and recount recent efforts to apply due diligence in cyberspace. They then review past US experience with due diligence and conclude that renewed recognition of this principle might complement the Defend Forward strategy in cyberspace, if appropriately tailored.

EssaysAnalysis and Commentary

The Iranian Deep State: Understanding The Politics Of Transition In The Islamic Republic

by Sanam Vakil, Hossein Rassamvia Hoover Institution Press
Monday, October 12, 2020

An analysis of the deep state is essential to understanding the current and future trajectory of politics in Iran. The Iranian deep state is composed of an intricate security, intelligence, and economic superstructure whose goal is to preserve the fundamental revolutionary nature, vision, and security of the Islamic Republic.

Elections, Political Polarization, and Economic Uncertainty

by Scott R. Baker, Aniket Baksy, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Jonathan Roddenvia Economics Working Papers
Friday, October 9, 2020

Economics Working Paper 20120

Firm-level Risk Exposures and Stock Returns in the Wake of COVID-19

by Steven J. Davis, Stephen Hansen, Cristhian Seminario-Amezvia Economics Working Papers
Monday, September 21, 2020

Economics Working Paper 20118

Telling China’s Story: The Chinese Communist Party’s Campaign To Shape Global Narratives

by Glenn Tiffert, Renee DiResta, Carly Miller, Vanessa Molter, John Pomfretvia Analysis
Tuesday, July 21, 2020

Well-resourced countries have demonstrated sophisticated abilities to carry out influence operations in both traditional and social media ecosystems simultaneously. Russia, China, Iran, and a swath of other nation-states control media properties with significant audiences, often with reach far beyond their borders. They have also been implicated in social media company takedowns of accounts and pages that are manipulative either by virtue of the fake accounts and suspicious domains involved, or by way of coordinated distribution tactics to drive attention to certain content or to create the perception that a particular narrative is extremely popular.

Analysis and Commentary

Across-The-Curve Credit Spread Indices

by Antje Berndt, Darrell Duffie, Yichao Zhuvia Darrell Duffie
Thursday, July 23, 2020

This note presents a preliminary approach to the design of an across-the-curve credit spread index (AXI). The index is a measure of the recent average cost of wholesale unsecured debt fund- ing for publicly listed U.S. bank holding companies and their commercial banking subsidiaries.

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