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Down in Flames

via Hoover Digest
Wednesday, October 30, 2002

How Japanese naval air power went down to defeat. A study of the Second World War by Hoover fellow Mark R. Peattie.

The Provinces

The Mishu Phenomenon: Patron-Client Ties and Coalition-Building Tactics

by Cheng Livia China Leadership Monitor
Wednesday, October 30, 2002

China's ongoing political succession has been filled with paradoxes. Jockeying for power among various factions has been fervent and protracted, but the power struggle has not led to a systemic crisis as it did during the reigns of Mao and Deng. While nepotism and favoritism in elite recruitment have become prevalent, educational credentials and technical expertise are also essential. Regional representation has gained importance in the selection of Central Committee members, but leaders who come from coastal regions will likely dominate the new Politburo. Regulations such as term limits and an age requirement for retirement have been implemented at various levels of the Chinese leadership, but these rules and norms will perhaps not restrain the power of Jiang Zemin, the 76-year-old "new paramount leader." While the military's influence on political succession has declined during the past decade, the Central Military Commission is still very powerful. Not surprisingly, these paradoxical developments have led students of Chinese politics to reach contrasting assessments of the nature of this political succession, the competence of the new leadership, and the implications of these factors for China's future. This diversity of views is particularly evident regarding the ubiquitous role of mishu in the Chinese leadership.

Party Affairs

Beijing Sets the Stage to Convene the 16th Party Congress

by Alice L. Millervia China Leadership Monitor
Wednesday, October 30, 2002

After a summer of last-minute wrangling, Beijing moved swiftly to complete preparations for the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) 16th Party Congress. Since the leadership's annual summer retreat at the north China seaside resort at Beidaihe, leadership statements and authoritative press commentary have implied that the congress, scheduled to open on November 8, 2002, will see the long-anticipated retirement of "third generation" leaders around party General Secretary Jiang Zemin and the installation of a new "fourth generation" leadership led by Hu Jintao. Chinese press commentary has also indicated that the party constitution will be amended to incorporate the "three represents"—the controversial political reform enunciated by Jiang Zemin nearly three years ago which aims to broaden the party's base by admitting the entrepreneurial, technical, and professional elite that has emerged in Chinese society under two decades of economic reform.

Economic Policy

Evening Glow: The Final Maneuvers of Zhu Rongji

by Barry Naughtonvia China Leadership Monitor
Wednesday, October 30, 2002

Economic policy reform slowed markedly at the end of 2001 and beginning of 2002. However, since June 2002, Premier Zhu Rongji has assumed a higher profile, and resumed a more authoritative role in policymaking. This increased activity should be regarded primarily as a defensive strategy. It is designed to prevent Zhu from becoming irrelevant at the end of his term and to avoid the problems that might develop if the central government were seen as weak or passive. Presumably, it is also designed to solidify Zhu's position in history. Some of the new policy activity may smooth the return to a more activist policy regime after the 16th Party Congress.

Military Affairs

Cao Gangchuan: A Political Biography

by James Mulvenonvia China Leadership Monitor
Wednesday, October 30, 2002

Cao Gangchuan’s Military Career Cao Gangchuan was born in Wugang, Henan Province, in December 1935. At age 19, he joined the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and was immediately sent to study artillery and ordnance at two entry-level technical schools, at the latter of which he graduated to serve as a teacher for one year. In 1956, he joined the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and was singled out for Russian language education to prepare him for six years of study at a prestigious artillery engineering school in the Soviet Union. When Cao returned to the PLA in 1963, he began a long career in the equipment and ordnance system within the Beijing staff departments. For 12 years, including the time of the Cultural Revolution, he worked as a low-level officer in the munitions offices of the General Logistics Department. From the mid-1970s, Cao moved over to assume increasing responsibilities in the equipment departments of the General Staff Department (GSD), serving as deputy director of the Military Equipment Department from 1982-89. During this period, sources close to General Cao confirm that he often traveled to Europe and Russia on procurement delegations. After Tiananmen in 1989, General Cao directly oversaw this commerce as director of the Office of Military Trade under the Central Military Commission.

The Provinces

Hu's Followers: Provincial Leaders with Background in the Communist Youth League

by Cheng Livia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, July 30, 2002

Hu Jintao's succession to Jiang Zemin as party chief is beyond doubt. The important question is whether Hu can effectively run the political apparatus of the most populous nation in the world. Crucial to assessing Hu's political future is an analysis of the political networks he has formed. Although Hu is not seen as a leader active in building patron-client ties in the party, he is nevertheless well-connected in the three most important institutions of elite recruitment in China today—Qinghua University, the Communist Youth League, and the Central Party School.

Political Reform

The Politics of the Stock Market

by Barry Naughtonvia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, July 30, 2002

Although economic policy is not the focus of current ideological debates, economic issues are still highly politicized in China, and economic policy questions will affect the leadership succession in numerous ways. For the past two years, China's stock markets have been the locus of contention among various factions of China's elite. This article looks at some of the issues the operation of China's stock markets has raised in Chinese leadership politics.

Party Affairs

Beijing Blunts Intra-Party Dissent in Preparing for Sixteenth Party Congress

by Alice L. Millervia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, July 30, 2002

In anticipation of the party's Sixteenth National Congress this fall, Beijing has since the beginning of the year waged a massive campaign to overcome opposition to new political reforms intended to broaden the base of the Chinese Communist Party. At the congress, the central leadership seeks to lay the ideological foundations for the reforms by incorporating General Secretary Jiang Zemin's theme of the "three represents" into the party constitution. Judging by the scale of Beijing's campaign in recent months, intra-party resistance to these changes must be pervasive.

Military Affairs

Wang Ke: A Political Biography

by James Mulvenonvia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, July 30, 2002

Wang Ke was born Wang Maoqing in August 1931 in Xiaoxian County, Jiangsu Province (later Anhui Province). In the early 1940s, this part of Jiangsu became an operating base for the New Fourth Army. With only an elementary school education, Wang joined the local unit of the New Fourth Army as a “young soldier” at the age of 13, serving as a communicator for the armed working team of Xiaoxian County. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) commander of the local military subdistrict was Zhang Zhen, a future top People’s Liberation Army (PLA) officer and powerful patron for Wang for the remainder of his career. Wang was reportedly personally trained by Zhang, who sent him first for additional education and tactics instruction.

An Uneasy Alliance

by Alice L. Millervia Hoover Digest
Tuesday, July 30, 2002

Relations between the United States and China have improved since September 11, but the two sides still view each other with a great deal of unease. Hoover fellow H. Lyman Miller on the most powerful nation on earth—and the most populous.

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