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Analysis and Commentary

A Tale of Two Countries

by Alvin Rabushka, Michael S. Bernstamvia russianeconomy.org
Monday, November 18, 2002

China grows at 8% a year, while the IMF tells Russia, which cannot even recover from the Great Contraction of the 1990s, to reduce inflation by a few percentage points.

Analysis and Commentary

Market, Shmarket, WTO

by Alvin Rabushka, Michael S. Bernstamvia russianeconomy.org
Wednesday, November 13, 2002

In 2002, Western governments unleashed an inconceivable attack on the idea of the market economy.

Analysis and Commentary

What Real Appreciation of the Ruble? A Postscript: Is Real Depreciation Setting in?

by Alvin Rabushka, Michael S. Bernstamvia russianeconomy.org
Monday, August 12, 2002

Data published by the Central Bank of Russia showed that the real effective exchange rate (the real trade-weighted exchange rate) of the ruble had only modestly increased 4.9% during the first half (H1) of 2002 compared with H1 of 2001 and a smaller 1.2% compared with H2 of 2001. The data are suggestive of a possible shift in direction, from real appreciation of the ruble to real depreciation of the ruble.

Analysis and Commentary

Getting the Macroeconomic Balances Right? Or Achieving High Growth? Are the Two Compatible in Russia?

by Alvin Rabushka, Michael S. Bernstamvia russianeconomy.org
Wednesday, July 24, 2002

Increasing the share of private income in GDP is the quickest path to higher growth. So long as the network of enterprise socialism enjoys its subsidy and self-subsidy powers, Russia will be hard pressed to turn in sustained high growth.

Analysis and Commentary

What Real Appreciation of the Ruble?

by Alvin Rabushka, Michael S. Bernstamvia russianeconomy.org
Monday, July 15, 2002

Even if there is such a thing as real appreciation of the ruble and if it takes some time for the real appreciation of the ruble to percolate through the economy, the magnitude of the changes over the past year does not warrant the conclusion that a major culprit in Russia's slowing growth is real ruble appreciation.

Analysis and Commentary

How Much Growth is Normal? In Russia? Elsewhere?

by Alvin Rabushka, Michael S. Bernstamvia russianeconomy.org
Wednesday, July 10, 2002

Russia's sustained contraction during 1991-1998, followed by a trend of declining growth during the past three-and-a-half years, should be set in the context of an economy defined by a low level of private income, about one-quarter of GDP (or a high degree of socialism, about three-quarters of GDP). In the realm of socialist economies, 3-4% annual growth may well be normal.

Analysis and Commentary

Capital Swap à la Russe for Argentina

by Alvin Rabushka, Michael S. Bernstamvia russianeconomy.org
Thursday, June 6, 2002

Capital swaps are a general proposal that can be applied to reform bankrupt financial institutions in most countries. Our proposal for Russia was, really, a general concept that we developed for Russia's particular circumstances. We are gratified to find that this general concept has found applicability in such other countries as Argentina.

Analysis and Commentary

Review of the World Bank's "Russian Economic Report, October 2001"

by Alvin Rabushka, Michael S. Bernstamvia russianeconomy.org
Tuesday, December 4, 2001

In October 2001, the Moscow office of the World Bank issued the first of a new series of quarterly economic reports on Russia, which are intended to describe major economic trends and issues facing the economy.

Analysis and Commentary

Fixing Russia's Banks—A Reminder

by Alvin Rabushka, Michael S. Bernstamvia russianeconomy.org
Sunday, November 18, 2001

The Russian government plans to hold a meeting on September 27, 2001, to explore several ideas to reform Russia's banks. If the Russian government and its international advisers are really serious about banking reform, they can start by reviewing the relative merits and demerits of existing proposals.

Analysis and Commentary

Towards a New Understanding of the Russian Economy?

by Alvin Rabushka, Michael S. Bernstamvia russianeconomy.org
Wednesday, November 14, 2001

President Vladimir Putin's visit to Washington, D.C., and to President Bush's ranch in Crawford, Texas, for three days in mid-November 2001 has led to considerable soul searching on Russia's economic prospects and if its recent high growth can be sustained.

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