The Hoover Institution Program on the US, China, and the World held Risk Analysis for an Uncertain Age: A Number-Free Introduction to the Method on Wednesday, August 13, 2025, from 4:00 pm-5:00 pm in the Annenberg Conference Room, George P. Shultz Building.
Sound policy decision making—especially in the US-China relationship—involves understanding risk: uncertainties and their consequences. Quantitative methods of risk analysis determine failure probabilities, forming input for rational risk management. Crucial for sound decision making, quantitative probabilistic analysis requires factual analysis independent of personal biases, based on known scenarios and outcomes.
The launch event of this report by Dr. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell, provides a conceptual introduction to the topic for policy professionals, using examples from surgical anesthesia, spacecraft heat shields, and AI-supported cyberattack warnings.
About the speakers
Elisabeth Paté-Cornell is the Burt and Deedee McMurtry Professor in the School of Engineering at Stanford University and a member of the National Academy of Engineering. She currently co-chairs the National Academies (NASEM) Committee on Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism. Her specialty is engineering risk analysis applied to complex systems.
Glenn Tiffert is a distinguished research fellow at the Hoover Institution and a historian of modern China. He co-chairs Hoover’s program on the US, China, and the World, and also leads Stanford’s participation in the National Science Foundation’s SECURE program, a $67 million effort authorized by the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022 to enhance the security and integrity of the US research enterprise. He works extensively on the security and integrity of ecosystems of knowledge, particularly academic, corporate, and government research; science and technology policy; and malign foreign interference.
