Governance in an Emerging New World

The George P. Shultz Project on Governance in an Emerging New World explores the challenges and opportunities for our democracy, our economy, and our security posed by emerging technologies and societal changes.

George Shultz has observed that the world ahead will not be like the world behind us. His Project on Governance in an Emerging New World explores the challenge to governance posed by changing demographics, the information and communications revolution, emerging technologies, and new means of production of goods near where they are used. Its contributors aim to understand the impact of these global transformations on our democracy, our economy, and our national security and inform strategies for how best to proceed in a rapidly changing world.

New and rapid societal and technological changes are complicating governance around the globe and challenging traditional thinking. Demographic changes and migration are having a profound effect as some populations age and shrink while other countries expand. The information and communications revolution is making governance much more difficult and heightening the impact of diversity. Emerging technologies, especially artificial intelligence and automation, are bringing about a new industrial revolution, disrupting workforces and increasing military capabilities of both states and non-state actors. And new means of production such as additive manufacturing and automation are changing how, where, and what we produce. These changes are coming quickly, faster than governments have historically been able to respond.

Led by Hoover Distinguished Fellow George P. Shultz, his Project on Governance in an Emerging New World aims to understand these changes and inform strategies that both address the challenges and take advantage of the opportunities afforded by these dramatic shifts.

The project will feature a series of papers and events addressing how these changes are affecting democratic processes, the economy, and national security of the United States, and how they are affecting countries and regions, including Russia, China, Europe, Africa, and Latin America. A set of essays by the participants will accompany each event and provide thoughtful analysis of the challenges and opportunities.
 


A Message from George P. Shultz

Featured

Governance In An Emerging New World: Stability In An Age Of Disruption

Tuesday, May 14, 2019
Hauck Auditorium, Hoover Institution, Stanford University

Communications technologies, demographics and the movement of peoples, and climate change are combining to place enormous pressure on democracies and the rule of law, both here in the United States and around the world. The panelists will discuss the impact of these disruptive forces on democratic systems, what can be done to strengthen governance, and how we might learn from when technological and social changes have challenged the capacity of democratic governments in the past.

The Hoover Institution hosted a public panel discussion "Stability in an Age of Disruption" on Tuesday, May 14, 2019 from 4:00pm - 5:15pm PST.

Event
Featured

Governing In An Emerging New World

Monday, October 7, 2019
Hauck Auditorium, Hoover Institution, Stanford University

Many have questioned the impact of new communication technologies on elections, but after the election, one must still govern. And taking advantage of the opportunities afforded by an emerging new world heightens the importance of good US political leadership. But the expanding use of social media and the advent of artificial intelligence and other new technologies are making day-to-day governance even more complicated. Drawing from their experiences in government, journalism, and policy, the panelists will discuss how these social and political dynamics have changed how governments operate and how these new tools can be harnessed to improve the quality of governance in America.

The Hoover Institution hosts a public panel discussion "Governing in an Emerging New World" on Monday, October 7, 2019 from 4:00pm - 5:15pm PST. The event will be livestreamed and can be viewed below

Event

Emerging Technology and Nuclear Non-Proliferation

Tuesday, November 5, 2019
Hauck Auditorium, Hoover Institution, Stanford University

The existential threat posed by nuclear weapons is unique, and states have continuously managed that risk across decades of profound global change. How might changing global demographics and emerging 21st-century technologies redefine the nature of nuclear weapons proliferation and their use? Leaders from the Nuclear Threat Initiative will explore potential impacts on nuclear proliferation challenges and on counter-proliferation strategies, and panelists will consider the particular risks in the India-Pakistan nuclear standoff.

The Hoover Institution hosts a public panel discussion "Emerging Technology and Nuclear Non-Proliferation" on Tuesday, November 5, 2019 from 4:00pm - 5:15pm PST. The event will be livestreamed and can be viewed below.

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Essays

The Migration Challenge

by James F. Hollifieldvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, May 6, 2019

International migration has been steadily increasing in every region of the globe since the end of the Second World War. In 2017, approximately 258 million people reside outside of their country of birth (3.4 percent of the world’s population) and over the past half century, individual mobility has increased at a steady pace. Tens of millions of people cross borders on a daily basis, which adds up to roughly two billion annually. International mobility is part of a broader trend of globalization, which includes trade in goods and services, investments and capital flows, greater ease of travel, and a veritable explosion of information. While trade and capital flows are the twin pillars of globalization, migration is the third leg of the stool on which the global economy rests.

Essays

The Commercialization of Decision-Making: Towards a Regulatory Framework to Address Machine Bias over the Internet

by Dipayan Ghoshvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, May 6, 2019

The consumer internet has exacerbated the discrimination problem. The business model that sits behind the front end of the internet industry is one that focuses on the unchecked collection of personal information, the continual creation and refinement of behavioral profiles on the individual user, and the development of algorithms that curate content. These actions all perpetuate the new pareto optimal reality of the commercial logic underlying the modern digitalized media ecosystem: that every act executed by a firm, whether a transfer of data or an injection of content, is by its nature necessarily done in the commercial interests of the firm because technological progress has enabled such granular profiteering. 

Essays

How Will Machine Learning Transform the Labor Market?

by Erik Brynjolfsson, Daniel Rock, Prasanna Tambevia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, May 6, 2019

The twenty-first century will be the century of intelligent machines. Artificial intelligence (AI) has begun to transform the economy as it as enables machines to do more and more of the cognitive tasks that were once done only by humans. In the coming decade, many existing tasks will be replaced by machines, while new ones will emerge. Almost every job will be affected in some way and most will need to be redesigned. Businesses will rise and fall depending on how well they understand, foster and harness the changing skills that are needed to be productive. Economies will thrive if they can create and update the institutions needed to create these skills.

From the Conveners

A Letter from the Conveners

via Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, May 6, 2019

Sharp changes are afoot throughout the globe. Demographics are shifting, technology is advancing at unprecedented rates, and these changes are being felt everywhere. How should we develop strategies to deal with this emerging new world? We can begin by understanding it.

Essays

Islamic Republic of Iran in an Age of Global Transitions: Challenges for a Theocratic Iran

by Abbas Milani, Roya Pakzadvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, April 22, 2019

For the last 150 years, Iran, like most countries in the industrializing world, has experienced the tumults of two epochal global revolutions—the industrial revolution that changed the nature of labor and now the advent of the “second Machine Age,”2 which is changing the nature of not just labor, but life and leisure, knowledge and information. In the same period, Iran has gone through the travails of two domestic revolutions—the first in 1905-07 when the country’s elite tried to introduce democracy and modernity  to the country, and the second in 1979 when a democratic mass movement overthrew the monarchy but eventually begot the rise of a theocratic despotism keen on dismantling as much of modernity as possible.

Essays

The Impact of Demographic and Digital Transformations on Turkey’s Governance Deficit

by Aykan Erdemirvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, April 22, 2019

Turkey is a country of paradoxes. Ankara has been a NATO member since 1952 but is about to receive the S-400 air defense system from the transatlantic alliance’s main adversary, Russia, and consequently face sanctions from its longtime ally, the United States. Ankara has been undertaking accession negotiations with the European Union since 2005, but Turkish officials happen to be deeply Eurosceptic, frequently hurling insults at their European counterparts and targeting Western values.

Mousque of Al-aqsa in Old Town - Jerusalem, Israel
Essays

Building Democracy on Sand: The State of Israel in the 21st Century

by Arye Carmonvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, April 22, 2019

In the second decade of the 21st Century, the State of Israel is still engaged in the early stages of building political sovereignty for the Jewish people, for the first time in seventy generations. The discussion of contemporary Israel is based on this historical context, the absence of a tradition of responsibility for political sovereignty.

Essays

Challenges to Stability in Egypt

by Lisa Blaydesvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, April 22, 2019

The last ten years have seen forms of political disruption within Egypt that were virtually unimaginable a decade ago—from the 2011 protest uprisings; the 2012 election of Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohammed Morsi to the Egyptian presidency; the 2013 coup d’état which unseated Morsi; and the 2014 formal assumption of power by current Egyptian president Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Egypt has witnessed a period of staggering political change. Few analysts would disagree with the statement that demographic circumstances and technological developments played a crucial role in sparking and sustaining the popular movement that set this chain of events into motion.

Essays

Innovation and Entrepreneurialism in the Middle East and North Africa: The Cases of Egypt, Tunisia,and the UAE

by Houssem Aoudivia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, April 22, 2019

While the so-called “Arab Spring” was an awakening for the region’s people and its powerholders, the events of 2010–2011 changed the trajectory of innovation and entrepreneurship only slightly and in specific, local contexts. This paper endeavors to compare Egypt, Tunisia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) with three major objectives in mind.

Essays

Youth, Technology, and Political Change in Saudi Arabia

by Hicham Alaouivia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, April 22, 2019

There are two lenses by which to view the political potential of Saudi Arabia’s large, tech-savvy youth generation. The first, optimistic perspective holds that given their social awareness, technological skillset, and creative potential, the Kingdom’s millions of young citizens will be the engine for constructive progress. That progress is defined by post-oil economic transformation, and hence renewed political stability and national unity under the House of Saud. This is the image invoked by Saudi Arabia’s grandiose Vision 2030 initiative, as well as its architect, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. 

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Leadership
Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Distinguished Fellow
Annenberg Distinguished Visiting Fellow
Contributor
Senior Fellow / National Fellow 2010–11
Peter and Helen Bing Senior Fellow