John H. Cochrane

Rose-Marie and Jack Anderson Senior Fellow
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Biography: 

John H. Cochrane is the Jack and Rose-Marie Anderson Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution. He is also a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research and an adjunct scholar of the CATO Institute. 

Before joining Hoover, Cochrane was  a Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business, and earlier at its Economics Department. Cochrane earned a bachelor’s degree in physics at MIT and his PhD in economics at the University of California at Berkeley. He was a junior staff economist on the Council of Economic Advisers (1982–83).

Cochrane’s recent publications include the book Asset Pricing and articles on dynamics in stock and bond markets, the volatility of exchange rates, the term structure of interest rates, the returns to venture capital, liquidity premiums in stock prices, the relation between stock prices and business cycles, and option pricing when investors can’t perfectly hedge. His monetary economics publications include articles on the relationship between deficits and inflation, the effects of monetary policy, and the fiscal theory of the price level. He has also written articles on macroeconomics, health insurance, time-series econometrics, financial regulation, and other topics. He was a coauthor of The Squam Lake Report. His Asset Pricing PhD class is available online via Coursera. 

Cochrane frequently contributes editorial opinion essays to the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg.com, and other publications. He maintains the Grumpy Economist blog.

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Recent Commentary

Featured

Supply-Side Health Care

by John H. Cochrane via Grumpy Economist
Wednesday, September 19, 2018

The discussion over health policy rages over who will pay -- private insurance, companies, "single payer," Obamacare, VA, Medicare, Medicaid, and so on -- as if once that's decided everything is all right -- as if once we figure out who is paying the check, the provision of health care is as straightforward a service as the provision of restaurant food, tax advice, contracting services, airline travel, car repair, or any other reasonably functional market for complex services.

Featured

Dollarize Argentina

by John H. Cochrane via Grumpy Economist
Monday, September 10, 2018

Argentina should dollarize, says Mary Anastasia O'Grady in the Wall Street Journal -- not a peg, not a currency board, not an IMF plan, just give up and use dollars. 

Federal Reserve
Analysis and Commentary

Fed Nixes Narrow Bank

by John H. Cochrane via Grumpy Economist
Wednesday, September 5, 2018

A narrow bank would be a great thing. A narrow bank takes deposits, and invests 100% of the money in interest-paying reserves at the Fed. (The Fed, in turn, mostly invests in US treasuries and agency securities.)

Analysis and Commentary

Cause, Effect, And Carbon

by John H. Cochrane via Grumpy Economist
Tuesday, September 4, 2018

“As fires rage up and down the state of California, costing our taxpayers billions of dollars and threatening our families’ health—- the need for California to move to 100% clean, renewable energy could not be more urgent,” said Mr. de León in a statement. Sen. Kevin de León, a Democrat who is waging a long-shot run for a U.S. Senate seat against incumbent Dianne Feinstein.

Featured

Post-Apocalyptic Health Care

by John H. Cochrane via Grumpy Economist
Monday, August 27, 2018

Post-apocalyptic life in American health care is a fantastic blog post on the state of American health care and insurance. (HT Marginal Revolution) Bottom line: American health care organizations can no longer operate systematically, so participants are forced to act in the communal mode, as if in the pre-modern world.

Analysis and Commentary

Modigliani-Miller Theorem Repealed, Reports PBS

by John H. Cochrane via Grumpy Economist
Thursday, August 23, 2018

This week marked the longest period of uninterrupted gains in the stock market in U.S. history. One of the reasons: the increase in stock buybacks — companies purchasing their own shares.

Featured

Options On Health Insurance

by John H. Cochrane via Grumpy Economist
Thursday, August 16, 2018

Alex M. Azar, U.S. secretary of health and human services, published an interesting OpEd in the Washington Post, describing a clever health insurance innovation. HHS will allow "temporary" health insurance, including a guaranteed renewability provision.

Analysis and Commentary

Trade Uncertainty And Investment

by John H. Cochrane mentioning Steven J. Davisvia Grumpy Economist
Monday, August 13, 2018

My colleague Steve Davis has a nice post quantifying economic uncertainty due to the trade war, and its emerging impact on investment. Steve (and Nick Bloom) have done a great job quantifying policy uncertainty over time. To be clear, policies can have two effects -- there is the certainty of damaging policy, but there is also the damaging uncertainty of what policy will be.

Featured

Intellectual Property And China

by John H. Cochrane via Grumpy Economist
Monday, August 13, 2018

Let's transfer more technology to China, writes Scott Sumner, with approving comments from Don Boudreaux. They're exactly right, skewering one of the common backstop defenses of protectionists on both left and right.

Analysis and Commentary

Lira Crash

by John H. Cochrane via Grumpy Economist
Sunday, August 12, 2018

No, a currency board won't save the Lira, contra Steve Hanke's oped in the Wall Street Journal. Steve: Turkey should adopt a currency board. A currency board issues notes and coins convertible on demand into a foreign anchor currency at a fixed rate of exchange. It is required to hold anchor-currency reserves equal to 100% of its monetary liabilities,...

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Current Online Courses

Asset Pricing, Part 1, via Coursera and the University of Chicago

This course is part one of a two-part introductory survey of graduate-level academic asset pricing. We will focus on building the intuition and deep understanding of how the theory works, how to use it, and how to connect it to empirical facts. This first part builds the basic theoretical and empirical tools around some classic facts. The second part delves more deeply into applications and empirical evaluation. Learn more. . .