Governance in an Emerging New World

The George P. Shultz Project on Governance in an Emerging New World explores the challenges and opportunities for our democracy, our economy, and our security posed by emerging technologies and societal changes.

George Shultz has observed that the world ahead will not be like the world behind us. His Project on Governance in an Emerging New World explores the challenge to governance posed by changing demographics, the information and communications revolution, emerging technologies, and new means of production of goods near where they are used. Its contributors aim to understand the impact of these global transformations on our democracy, our economy, and our national security and inform strategies for how best to proceed in a rapidly changing world.

New and rapid societal and technological changes are complicating governance around the globe and challenging traditional thinking. Demographic changes and migration are having a profound effect as some populations age and shrink while other countries expand. The information and communications revolution is making governance much more difficult and heightening the impact of diversity. Emerging technologies, especially artificial intelligence and automation, are bringing about a new industrial revolution, disrupting workforces and increasing military capabilities of both states and non-state actors. And new means of production such as additive manufacturing and automation are changing how, where, and what we produce. These changes are coming quickly, faster than governments have historically been able to respond.

Led by Hoover Distinguished Fellow George P. Shultz, his Project on Governance in an Emerging New World aims to understand these changes and inform strategies that both address the challenges and take advantage of the opportunities afforded by these dramatic shifts.

The project will feature a series of papers and events addressing how these changes are affecting democratic processes, the economy, and national security of the United States, and how they are affecting countries and regions, including Russia, China, Europe, Africa, and Latin America. A set of essays by the participants will accompany each event and provide thoughtful analysis of the challenges and opportunities.
 


A Message from George P. Shultz

Featured

Governance In An Emerging New World: Russia

Wednesday, October 3, 2018
Hauck Auditorium, Hoover Institution, Stanford University

Faced with an aging and shrinking population and a weak economy, Russia’s future appears uncertain. Participants will explore how Russia is taking on the challenges posed by an aging and declining population and attempting to exploit the economic and military potential of advancing technologies.

Featuring Stephen Kotkin, Maria Smekalova speaking on behalf of former Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov, Michael McFaul and David Holloway and moderated by Kori Schake, the Hoover Institution hosted a public panel discussion "Russia In An Emerging New World" on Wednesday, October 3, 2018 from 3:30pm - 5:00pm PST. The event was also be livestreamed and can be viewed here.

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Featured

Governance In An Emerging New World: China

Monday, October 29, 2018
Hauck Auditorium, Hoover Institution, Stanford University

Even as its economy continues to grow, and it becomes a world leader in technology, China must also contend with an aging, unbalanced population and the information revolution. The discussion will examine China’s pursuit of next-generation technologies for economic, political, and military purposes as well as its changing demographics and widespread use of new means of communications.

The Hoover Institution will host a public panel discussion "China In An Emerging World" on Monday, October 29, 2018 from 3:30pm - 5:00pm PST. The event will also be Livestreamed and can be viewed here.

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Governance In An Emerging New World: The Information Challenge To Democracy

Tuesday, November 13, 2018
Hauck Auditorium, Hoover Institution, Stanford University

The communications revolution has surrounded society with information, some right and some wrong, and enabled people to communicate and organize like never before. It gives new dimensions to the old challenge of governing over diversity. Participants examine the rapid spread of information and means of communicating and suggest responses to the governance challenges posed by social media, fake news, and the decline of confidence in institutions.

Featuring Niall Ferguson and Joseph Nye, and moderated by Condoleezza, the Hoover Institution will host a public panel discussion "The Information Challenge to Democracy" on Tuesday, November 13, 2018 from 3:30pm - 5:00pm PST. The event will also be Livestreamed and can be viewed here.

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Governance In An Emerging New World: Latin America

Monday, December 3, 2018
Hauck Auditorium, Hoover Institution, Stanford University

Foreign policy starts in the neighborhood. Mexico, Central America, and South America are at the tail-end of decades of rapid workforce growth, a period during which migration was central to their relationships with the United States. The panel will address how a tighter labor supply, alongside new means of production, will affect the economic development of our southern neighbors. It will also consider whether the public transparency offered by new forms of communications can improve governance, and with it, growth.

The Hoover Institution will host a public panel discussion "Latin America In An Emerging World" on Monday, December 3, 2018 from 3:30pm - 5:00pm PST. The event will also be Livestreamed and can be viewed here.

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Governance In An Emerging New World: Africa

Monday, January 14, 2019
Hauck Auditorium, Hoover Institution, Stanford University

Africa will be home to much of world’s population growth in coming decades, giving it a young, growing, and increasingly urbanized population. At the same time, it faces economic challenges and will acutely feel the effects of a changing climate. The discussion will explore what these demographic and environmental dynamics, alongside the promise of advancing technologies and new means of communications, will mean for governance and development across the continent.

The Hoover Institution will host a public panel discussion "Africa in an Emerging World" on Monday, January 14, 2019 from 4:00pm - 5:15pm PST. The event will also be Livestreamed and can be viewed here.

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Governance In An Emerging New World: Europe

Monday, February 4, 2019
Hauck Auditorium, Hoover Institution, Stanford University

The Europe of the early 21st century is rapidly changing, as European institutions evolve, populations age, and new political forces emerge. The panelists will review how internet and communications technologies, new means of production, and rapid flows of people are affecting governance across the continent.

The Hoover Institution will host a public panel discussion "Europe in an Emerging World" on Monday, February 4, 2019 from 4:00pm - 5:15pm PST. The event will also be Livestreamed and can be viewed here.

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Governance In An Emerging New World: Emerging Technology and America’s National Security

Monday, February 25, 2019
Hauck Auditorium, Hoover Institution, Stanford University

The United States finds itself in strategic competition with China and Russia at the same time as its traditional technological superiority faces emergent challenges. The participants will address how new military technologies might change the strategic dynamic in both Europe and in the Pacific and what these weapons may mean for non-state actors.

The Hoover Institution will host a public panel discussion "Emerging Technology and America’s National Security" on Monday, February 25, 2019 from 4:00pm - 5:15pm PST. The event will also be The event will also be streamed online at hoover.org/governanceproject.

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Essays

Unlocking the Potential of MobileTech in Africa: Tracking the Trends and Guiding Effective Strategy on Maximising the Benefit of Mobile Tech

by Andre Pienaar, Zach Beechervia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, January 14, 2019

Africa is home to a burgeoning digital domain. Africans across the continent are taking notice of what mobile internet technology offers them. In fact, the vast majority of Africans believe that increased internet access offers paths to improved education, economies, and personal relationships. Though there is scepticism about the role of mobile internet technology in politics, there is a generally positive interpretation of where it could lead. Africans are not timidly wading into the technological fray but rather enthusiastically diving in.

Essays

Africa 2050: Demographic Truth and Consequences

by Jack A. Goldstonevia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, January 14, 2019

No general statement about African demography is true. The variation in the continent is too great. Africa today includes giant countries with populations near or exceeding 100 million (Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria) and tiny countries with populations under 1 million (Comoros, Djibouti, Cabo Verde, Reunion, Mayotte, Sao Tome and Principe, Seychelles). It includes countries where fertility is rising (Algeria, Egypt, Tunisia, Seychelles), countries where fertility is high but stable, falling by less than 1% per year (Mozambique, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria, and ten others), and countries where fertility is high but falling very rapidly, 2.5% per year or more (Ethiopia, Rwanda, Kenya, Malawi, and Sierra Leone).

Essays

Climate Change and Africa’s Future

by Mark Giordano, Elisabeth Bassinivia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, January 14, 2019

Africa is often described as the continent most at risk to the negative effects of climate change, both because of the expected change itself and because of the perceived lack of capacity of Africans and their governments to adapt. This paper provides an overview of what is known and unknown about Africa’s climate future and examines how possible changes may challenge four critical and inter-related areas: agriculture, health, migration, and conflict.

Essays

African Governance: Challenges and Their Implications

by Chester A. Crockervia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, January 14, 2019

In Africa, as in every region, it is the quality and characteristics of governance that shape the level of peace and stability and the prospects for economic development. There is no more critical variable than governance, for it is governance that determines whether there are durable links between the state and the society it purports to govern. The nature of governance is central because it determines whether the exercise of authority is viewed as legitimate. 

Essays

Africa Trade and Technology

by Anthony Carroll, Eric Obscherningvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, January 14, 2019

It is perceived that economic nationalism has slowed the meteoric rise of global trade. Since the Uruguay Round created the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1995, trade of goods and services has become a dominant feature in global economic growth. As a result, hundreds of millions of people in developing countries have graduated from subsistence living to middle-class status. The accession of China into the World Trade Organization in 2001 accelerated both the volume and character of global trade. By 2008, Global Value Chains (GVCs) have come to explain up to 70% of global trade volumes. GVCs optimize comparative advantage across borders and have enabled innovation in trade logistics and services technologies, in addition to a general WTO commitment by member states to facilitate trade.

From the Conveners

A Letter from the Conveners

via Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, January 14, 2019
Sharp changes are afoot throughout the globe. Demographics are shifting, technology is advancing at unprecedented rates, and these changes are being felt everywhere. How should we develop strategies to deal with this emerging new world? We can begin by understanding it.
Essays

Latin America: Opportunities and Challenges for the Governance of a Fragile Continent

by Ernesto Silva via Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, December 3, 2018

Facebook Live. That was the platform chosen by Jair Bolsonaro to issue his first statements after learning of his triumph in the presidential elections in Brazil in October 2018.1 It was not a speech at the headquarters of his party or in a public place. It was not the television channels or the radio stations that intermediated in the communication with the citizens. More than 300,000 people saw their statements live, and within the hour there were more than two million people who had seen his eight-minutes long message, approximately, quickly registering nearly 350,000 comments and reactions. 

Essays

Emerging Demographic Challenges and Persistent Trends in Mexico and the Northern Triangle of Central America

by Víctor M. García Guerrero, Silvia Giorguli-Saucedo, Claudia Masferrervia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, December 3, 2018

Population dynamics, often conceived only by looking at its size or volume, has defined opportunities and challenges throughout history. However, the evolution and changes of the demographic components of a population (fertility, mortality, and migration) are key for understanding the nature of these challenges and opportunities. In this document we analyze past and future demographic dynamics of the countries of the Northern Triangle of Central America (Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras) and Mexico, the Latin American country of North America. 

Essays

Digital Transformation in Central America: Marginalization or Empowerment?

by Richard Aitkenhead, Benjamin Sywulkavia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, December 3, 2018

As Digital Transformation reaches Central America, a strategic question arises: will it result in more marginalization, or in more empowerment? Writing from a practitioner’s perspective building on decades of lessons learned, the authors propose design principles for the transition. The region is systemically unprepared for the global forces that are hitting it, and the ability of the average citizen to generate income will increasingly decrease.

From the Conveners

A Letter from the Conveners

via Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, December 3, 2018

Sharp changes are afoot throughout the globe. Demographics are shifting, technology is advancing at unprecedented rates, and these changes are being felt everywhere. How should we develop strategies to deal with this emerging new world? We can begin by understanding it.

Pages

Leadership
Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Distinguished Fellow
Annenberg Distinguished Visiting Fellow
Contributor
Senior Fellow / National Fellow 2010–11
Peter and Helen Bing Senior Fellow