Today, Philip Zelikow asks whether the US has a strategy for the "Western Hemisphere"; Elizabeth Economy breaks down the Chinese response to Maduro’s capture and what it means for the future of China-Venezuela relations; and Abbas Milani tells us why Iranians are less afraid of their government than ever before.
Determining America’s Role in the World
The Venezuela crisis leads many to evoke a mistaken version of American history—a caricature that disregards the actual policies and strategies of leaders such as William McKinley and Theodore Roosevelt—writes senior fellow Philip Zelikow. He presents four assertions about the present crisis: 1) The Caribbean Basin is not the Western Hemisphere. Zelikow emphasizes that the top US interest in the Western Hemisphere should be the stability and cohesion of Mexico. 2) There is no evident strategy to turn around Venezuela. 3) There is no evident strategy to knock back the transnational criminal cartels. 4) As some US officials scorn international law, the United States relies on it. The US government relies on international maritime law to go after the tankers that are so much in the news. Read more here.
In this episode of China Considered: Quick Takes, Senior Fellow Elizabeth Economy examines how China is assessing the US military strike in Venezuela and why the implications matter far beyond Latin America. While some analysts argue the action makes a Chinese move on Taiwan more likely, Economy explains why Beijing’s calculus is driven first by its own military readiness, its assessment of Taiwan’s trajectory, and expectations about US intervention—not by events in Venezuela alone. Economy argues that China has real stakes in what comes next. Beijing has deep economic investments in Venezuela’s oil, telecom, and mining sectors, growing security interests including arms sales and satellite facilities, and a broader political interest in positioning itself as a responsible global actor. Watch the episode here.
Iran
In The New York Times, Research Fellow Abbas Milani traces the Islamic Republic’s use of violence and brutality since the 1979 revolution, arguing that after decades of public executions, quiet nighttime disappearances, and constant threats, Iran’s downtrodden people are no longer afraid. The fear started to evaporate in 2022, when large numbers of women took to the streets to demand equality, and an even larger share of women stopped wearing the hijab in public. The weaknesses exposed by US and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 served to embolden the Iranian public even further, Milani argues. Now, even after regime forces have shot thousands in the streets, Milani says the conditions remain for further protest. Read more here. [subscription required]
Revitalizing American Institutions
For Democracy Project, Center for Revitalizing American Institutions (RAI) Director and Senior Fellow Brandice Canes-Wrone argues that weakened party organizations and rising polarization have produced a less functional Congress and more presidential unilateralism. Parties used to play the most significant role in recruiting, funding, and mobilizing their candidates but a raft of changes have sidelined them. Scholarship (including her own) shows this environment increases extremism, drains time for members of Congress from their committee work, and skews policy toward donors over the public. She proposes restoring parties’ central role by raising contribution caps to parties and expanding coordinated party spending. Read more here.
California
California’s new year begins with a “new” version of Gov. Gavin Newsom—offering Sacramento lawmakers a detailed and in-person State of the State Address—as opposed to recent years when the governor eschewed such pageantry. Senior Fellow Lee Ohanian and Distinguished Policy Fellow Bill Whalen, both contributors to Hoover Institution’s California on Your Mind web channel, discuss Newsom’s “rosy” vision of California versus the realities of chronic homelessness, a lack of affordable housing, slow-track high-speed-rail construction, and a revenue stream overly dependent upon the AI boom. They also discussed reorganizing state constitutional offices, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan’s emergence as a Newsom foil and possible gubernatorial candidate, a proposed billionaire tax driving capital out of California, and a lack of Iran-related protests on college campuses despite the considerable Iranian-American population in Los Angeles County. Listen to the episode here.
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