Wednesday, February 4, 2026

Today, senior Hoover and Stanford scholars deliver and discuss the findings of the 2026 Stanford Emerging Technology Review with senators and other lawmakers and officials in Washington, DC. Abraham Sofaer breaks down what it may take to get Iran’s theocrats to permanently change their ways. And John Cochrane explains why the incentives and “benefit cliffs” inserted onto many federal social programs create a disincentive for work.

Emerging Technology

The 2026 Stanford Emerging Technology Review Debuts in the Nation’s Capital

Senators Chris Coons (D-CT) and Dave McCormick (R-PA) joined Hoover Institution Director Condoleezza Rice, Stanford School of Engineering Dean Jennifer Widom, Senior Fellow Amy Zegart, and contributing scholars at an event in the US Capitol on January 28 to mark the launch of the 2026 edition of the Stanford Emerging Technology Review (SETR). A collaboration between the Hoover Institution, the Stanford School of Engineering, and the Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (HAI), SETR—based on field-leading research from more than 100 Stanford scientists, engineers, and policy experts across 40 departments and research institutes—serves as a one-stop primer on state-of-the-art innovations in 10 technology key domains and what to watch for in the future. Read more here.

The Middle East

Getting Serious on Iran: What It Would Take

The Soviet Union was toppled by sustained campaigns of both strength and diplomacy, says Hoover Senior Fellow Abraham Sofaer, who was a top legal adviser to the White House in 1985–90. The same combination has not been tried in US dealings with Iran, he argues, and this mismatch has allowed Tehran to continue its oppression and illegal actions across the Middle East. The Trump administration has already wielded a “big stick” in attacking Iranian nuclear facilities and in killing the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, Sofaer says, and both sanctions and negotiations could now bear fruit. Trump’s credible use of force could in fact finally end Iranian intransigence as American ships and planes converge on the Persian Gulf. Read more here.

The Economy

How Social Programs Discourage Work

Social programs are constantly in the news, often framed as a budgetary choice between cutting benefits and hurting the poor or bankrupting the government. In this Grumpy Economist Weekly Rant, John Cochrane argues that this framing misses the real problem: incentives. Across much of the income range, earning an extra dollar can mean losing a dollar—or more—in combined benefits as multiple programs overlap and interact. These “benefit cliffs,” Cochrane explains, create powerful disincentives to work, even when individual programs are reasonably designed. The solution is not fewer beneficiaries but better incentives: integrated programs, transparent marginal tax rates, and firm limits on how much work is discouraged. Watch the video here.

The Fed Has a Major Blind Spot. It is Finally Starting to See the Problem

Writing in Barron’s, Research Fellow Patrick A. McLaughlin heralds Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran’s speech last month that ties the level of regulation in the economy to traditional measures of economic performance such as “productivity, output and inflation.” Miran contends that regulation is a supply-side constraint. “Rules that raise compliance costs, delay investment, block entry into a marketplace or prohibit a business activity altogether directly constrain the economy’s ability to produce goods and services,” McLaughlin writes. With greater exploration of the insights on the effect of regulation on markets, McLaughlin says regulation can “no longer be treated as macroeconomically neutral” as it has been for years. Read more here. [Subscription required.]

Hoover Opportunity

Become an Enviropreneur Fellow!

The Hoover Enviropreneur Fellowship Program is accepting applications for 2026–27. It offers a project-based fellowship for midcareer professionals who are committed to developing innovative market-based approaches to solve environmental challenges. Fellows will collaborate with Hoover Institution scholars and Stanford faculty, drawing on their extensive knowledge in business, finance, law, and environmental strategy. The program runs from March 2026 to March 2027 and involves participants working to complete a capstone project that tackles an environmental issue. The final deadline to apply is March 1, 2026. Learn more here.