The final of three recent Stanford University-Hoover Institution polls shows GOP candidate Arnold Schwarzenegger has consolidated his support among voters and support is solid for the Oct. 7 recall to replace Governor Gray Davis.
These findings are consistent with the previous online survey's conducted by the Stanford-Hoover group and Knowledge Networks since Sept. 8.
The Stanford-Hoover poll was the first to identify Schwarzenegger as the front-running candidate.
The latest findings are based on interviews conducted between Sept. 26 and Oct. 4 with likely voters in California. The survey was done by Knowledge Networks (http://www.knowledgenetworks.com/ganp) in collaboration with the Stanford-Hoover group.
The poll showed continued support for the recall with approximately 59 percent still in favor of the recall and support for Schwarzenegger increasingly slightly to 43 percent.
Stanford communications professor Shanto Iyengar and political science professors David Brady and Morris Fiorina created the poll to learn more about the logic behind voters' decision-making leading up to the special election. Brady and Fiorina are also senior fellows at the Hoover Institution.
The results are compared to results from two earlier surveys using the same questions that were conducted by Knowledge Networks and Stanford University between Aug. 29 and Sept. 8 and between Sept. 11 and Sept. 21. The Sept. 8 Stanford University and Knowledge Networks poll was the first to identify Schwarzenegger as the front-runner and strong majority support for the recall initiative.
Recent revelations about Schwarzenegger's sexual indiscretions do not appear to have hurt his candidacy. The latest survey shows that female voters are not swinging to the Bustamante campaign. The two candidates have a similar level of support among female voters (38 percent for Schwarzenegger and 34 percent for Bustamante). Interviews collected since the Oct. 2 revelations do not show a decrease in support for the GOP candidate.
"Even though we only have a limited number of recent interviews," Shanto Iyengar noted, "we're not seeing any signs of greater support for 'no'on recall or weakened enthusiasm for Arnold Schwarzenegger in the aftermath of the Los Angeles Times story detailing the sexual harassment allegations."
"All three waves of our survey have shown consistent majority support for the recall and plurality support for Schwarzenegger," Morris Fiorina said. "Our survey methodology [presenting respondents with a facsimile of the actual ballot] forces the undecideds to choose and it appears that all along the undecideds have been disproportionately supportive of the recall and Arnold Schwarzenegger."
Californians who participated in the online surveys voted 40 percent for Schwarzenegger during two polls held between Aug. 29 and Sept. 8, and between Sept. 11 and Sept. 21. In the most recent poll, Schwarzenegger was favored by 43 percent of the respondents. His support increased among Republicans from 62 to 72 percent, while maintaining support from 20 percent of Democrats and 39 percent of Independents.
Support for Bustamante's candidacy increased from 28 to 32 percent between the dates of the first two surveys, and is currently at 30 percent. Support for Bustamante among registered Hispanic voters has not maintained an upward trajectory as suggested in the first two polls, when support for the candidate jumped from 40 to 63 percent during the two-week interval. In the most recent poll, Bustamante's support dropped to 49 percent among Hispanics while Schwarzenegger has 32 percent of the Hispanic vote.
GOP candidate Tom McClintock was selected by 13 percent of the respondents. All remaining candidates collected 14 percent of the online votes.
The survey team concluded that undecided voters gravitate to the most visible candidate—the candidate with name recognition. Since the online survey, which was conducted to project to the entire California voting population, presented all 135 candidates to respondents, those candidates with greater name recognition are more likely to stand out on the crowded ballot.
Unlike conventional polls, which restrict respondents' choices to the top candidates and give them the option of selecting "undecideds" a response, the online surveys gave participants the actual ballot that included the question about recalling Davis and listed the 135 replacement candidates. Fiorina said this scenario is closer to the actual situation voters will face.
Meanwhile, the three polls showed little change in voter support for the recall itself. Among registered voters, 62 percent indicated "yes" for the recall and 38 percent said "no" in the first survey. In the second poll, 61 percent of participants voted "yes" and 39 percent voted "no." In the most recent poll, 59 percent favor the recall initiative. Republicans overwhelmingly favor the recall (94 percent). Democrats increasingly oppose the recall effort, with 58 percent opposing the recall in the first poll and 68 percent in the most recent poll.
Survey methodology
Knowledge Networks, a Menlo Park-based research firm, surveyed a representative sample of 956 registered voters in California, 702 of whom were determined to be likely voters. According to Knowledge Network's Mike Dennis, the polls were conducted with a random sample of adults in California who are members of a national "web-enabled panel" created and maintained by Knowledge Networks that is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. Knowledge Networks maintains the only Internet-based research panel projectable to the full U.S. population.
Initially, participants were chosen scientifically by a random selection of household telephone numbers. Individuals in selected households were then asked by telephone to participate in the research panel.
Those who agreed to participate were sent an Internet appliance and received an Internet service connection provided by Knowledge Networks.
Some people who already had computers and Internet service were also permitted to participate using their own equipment, Dennis said. Panelists received unique log-in information for accessing surveys online, and then were sent e-mails three to four times a month inviting them to participate in research. For the recall surveys, Knowledge Networks randomly selected adult panelists in California.
For more detailed results and information on the methodology, view the appendix at:
http://www.knowledgenetworks.com/ganp
For media queries:
Morris Fiorina, 650-814-9208
Also, for more information, contact J. Michael Dennis, Vice President and Managing Director, Government and Academic Research, at:
(650) 289-2160 or mdennis@knowledgenetworks.com
