China Leadership Monitor

China Leadership Monitor

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EFFECTIVE NOVEMBER 10, 2018 THE CHINA LEADERSHIP MONITOR WEBSITE CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.PRCLEADER.ORG.

This page serves as an archive for China Leadership Monitor hosted at the Hoover Institution prior to November 10, 2018.

The China Leadership Monitor seeks to inform the American foreign policy community about current trends in China's leadership politics and in its foreign and domestic policies. The Monitor proceeds on the premise that as China's importance in international affairs grows, American policy-makers and the broader policy-interested public increasingly need analysis of politics among China's leadership that is accurate, comprehensive, systematic, current, and relevant to major areas of interest to the United States.

China Leadership Monitor analysis rests heavily on traditional China-watching methods of interpreting information in China's state-controlled media. Use of these methods was once universal among specialists in contemporary Chinese affairs. Although the use of these methods has declined as opportunities to study China using other approaches have opened up in recent decades, their value in following politics among China's top leadership has not. Monitor analysis also brings to bear some of the new avenues of information and insight that have opened up since the normalization of U.S.-China relations and China's policy "opening to the outside world" in the late 1970s.

The China Leadership Monitor website is updated with new analyses quarterly.

Subscribe here to receive a free copy in your email inbox every quarter.

The China Leadership Monitor is sponsored by the Hoover Institution on War, Revolution, and Peace at Stanford University. Its general editor is Hoover Institution research fellow Alice Miller.

Wednesday, August 29, 2018

Fall 2018 Issue 57

Foreign Policy
Foreign Policy

Chinese Views on the Singapore Summit Between Donald J. Trump and Kim Jong-un

by Michael D. Swainevia China Leadership Monitor
Wednesday, August 29, 2018

Chinese observers generally view the summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un as a positive step towards denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula.

Military Affairs
Military Affairs

“Like Donkeys Slaughtered After They Are Too Old to Work a Grindstone”: PLA Veterans Protests and Party-Military Relations Under Xi Jinping

by James Mulvenonvia China Leadership Monitor
Wednesday, August 29, 2018

People’s Liberation Army (PLA) veterans are a revered and honored class in China, and the political leadership is very sensitive to perceptions of their treatment and their potential for anti-regime collective action.

Economic Policy
Economic Policy

Economic Policy under Trade War Conditions: Can China Move Beyond Tit for Tat?

by Barry Naughtonvia China Leadership Monitor
Wednesday, August 29, 2018

It has proven extremely difficult for China to deal effectively with Donald Trump’s economic agenda.  

Party Affairs
Party Affairs

Valedictory: Analyzing The Chinese Leadership In An Era Of Sex, Money, And Power

by Alice L. Millervia China Leadership Monitor
Wednesday, August 29, 2018

This article, my last as Monitor general editor and contributor, offers perspectives on the methods of analyzing Chinese leadership politics today.

E.g., 12 / 8 / 2018
E.g., 12 / 8 / 2018
Friday, June 7, 2013

Spring 2013: Issue 41

Foreign Policy

by Michael D. Swaine Thursday, June 6, 2013
article

China-Taiwan-United States

by Alan D. Romberg Thursday, June 6, 2013
article

Military Affairs

by James Mulvenon Thursday, June 6, 2013
article

Political Reform

by Joseph Fewsmith Thursday, June 6, 2013
article

Economic Policy

by Barry Naughton Thursday, June 6, 2013
article

Party Affairs

by Alice L. Miller Thursday, June 6, 2013
article

The Provinces

by Cheng Li Thursday, June 6, 2013
article
Monday, January 14, 2013

Winter 2013: Issue 40

Foreign Policy

by Michael D. Swaine Monday, January 14, 2013
article

China-Taiwan-United States

by Alan D. Romberg Monday, January 14, 2013
article

Military Affairs

by James Mulvenon Monday, January 14, 2013
article

Political Reform

by Joseph Fewsmith Monday, January 14, 2013
article

Economic Policy

by Barry Naughton Monday, January 14, 2013
article

Party Affairs

by Alice L. Miller Monday, January 14, 2013
article
Monday, October 1, 2012

Fall 2012: Issue 39

Foreign Policy

by Michael D. Swaine Monday, October 1, 2012
article

China-Taiwan-United States

by Alan D. Romberg Monday, October 1, 2012
article

Military Affairs

by James Mulvenon Monday, October 1, 2012
article

Political Reform

by Joseph Fewsmith Monday, October 1, 2012
article

Economic Policy

by Barry Naughton Monday, October 1, 2012
article

Party Affairs

by Alice L. Miller Monday, October 1, 2012
article

The Provinces

by Cheng Li Monday, October 1, 2012
article
by Cheng Li Monday, October 29, 2012
article
Monday, August 6, 2012

Summer 2012: Issue 38

Foreign Policy

by Michael D. Swaine Monday, August 6, 2012
article

China-Taiwan-United States

by Alan D. Romberg Monday, August 6, 2012
article

Military Affairs

by James Mulvenon Monday, August 6, 2012
article

Political Reform

by Joseph Fewsmith Monday, August 6, 2012
article

Economic Policy

by Barry Naughton Monday, August 6, 2012
article

Party Affairs

by Alice L. Miller Monday, August 6, 2012
article

The Provinces

by Cheng Li Monday, August 6, 2012
article

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Foreign Policy

Chinese Views on the Presumptive U.S. Presidential Candidates Hillary R. Clinton and Donald J. Trump

by Michael D. Swainevia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, July 19, 2016

This year’s presidential election, like past ones, features China and U.S.-China relations as a talking point for candidates from both parties. 

Party Affairs

“Core” Leaders, “Authoritative Persons,” And Reform Pushback

by Alice L. Millervia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, July 19, 2016

References in PRC media in recent months to China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, as “core” leader, and publication in May of a long dissertation on economic policy appearing in the Chinese Communist Party’s official newspaper under the byline “An Authoritative Person” have provoked controversy among observers of Chinese leadership politics.  

Economic Policy

Two Trains Running: Supply-Side Reform, SOE Reform and the Authoritative Personage

by Barry Naughtonvia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, July 19, 2016

The publication of a new article by “Authoritative Personage” on May 9, 2016, threw into the open two unresolved issues of Chinese policy: Who is making economic reform policy?  What is the mix between reform and growth? 

Military Affairs

Promoting “Young Guards”:
 The Recent High Turnover in the PLA Leadership (Part III: Personal and Political)

by Cheng Livia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, July 19, 2016

The bold moves toward reform of China’s military will have profound implications not only for Xi Jinping’s political standing in the lead-up to the next leadership turnover in 2017, but also for the development of civilian-military relations in the country and for the trajectory of China’s military modernization. 

Party Affairs

Projecting the Next Politburo Standing Committee

by Alice L. Millervia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, March 1, 2016

Analysis of appointments to the Politburo Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party shows that over the past two decades three simple rules have been followed.

Economic Policy

Supply-side Structural Reform: Policy-makers Look For a Way Out

by Barry Naughtonvia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, March 1, 2016

Policy-making with respects to economic reform has been extremely inconsistent since early 2015.

Military Affairs

Promoting “Young Guards”: The Recent High Turnover in the PLA Leadership (Part II: Expansion and Escalation)

by Cheng Livia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, March 1, 2016

The most noticeable trend under the leadership of Xi Jinping since the 2012 National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been the continuing consolidation of power. In particular, the military has been a key arena in which Xi has strengthened both his personal power and his new administration’s authority. 

Military Affairs

China’s “Goldwater-Nichols”? The Long-Awaited PLA Reorganization Has Finally Arrived

by James Mulvenonvia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, March 1, 2016

On 31 December 2015, CCP supremo Xi Jinping announced the most sweeping reorganization of the People’s Liberation Army since the 1950s.

China-Taiwan-United States

The “1992 Consensus” – Adapting to the Future?

by Alan D. Rombergvia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, March 1, 2016

In the January 16, 2016, Taiwan presidential and legislative elections, the Democratic Progressive Party inflicted a devastating defeat on the incumbent Kuomintang.

Great Wall of China
Foreign Policy

Chinese Views on Global Governance Since 2008–9: Not Much New

by Michael D. Swainevia China Leadership Monitor
Tuesday, March 1, 2016

China’s ideology of global governance shows much continuity between the pre- and post-2008–9 periods. Authoritative Chinese views all generally indicate that China’s proposed changes to the existing international order—such as reforms to correct “unjust” arrangements, strengthen the influence of developing countries, expand the idea of state sovereignty into new areas of state behaviors, and buttress the equality of sovereignty—are adjustments only, not radical acts departing from it. 

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