Thomas J. Sargent

Senior Fellow
Awards and Honors:
American Academy of Arts and Sciences
Econometric Society (elected fellow)
National Academy of Sciences

Thomas J. Sargent is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and a leader in the field of macroeconomics. He is the William R. Berkley Professor of Economics and Business at New York University and the Donald L. Lucas Professor in Economics, Emeritus, at Stanford University. He received the Nobel Prize in economic sciences in 2011.

A professor of economics at the University of Minnesota from 1975 to 1987, when he joined the Hoover staff, he was also the David Rockefeller Professor at the University of Chicago from 1992 to 1998. Sargent is past president of the Econometric Society, the American Economic Association, and the Society for Economic Dynamics.

Sargent was a university medalist as Most Distinguished Scholar in the Class of 1964 and won the Nemmers Prize in Economics in 1997. Sargent was elected a fellow of the National Academy of Sciences and a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, both in 1983.

Among his books are Rational Expectations and Econometric Practice, with Robert E. Lucas Jr., University of Minnesota Press, 1981; The Big Problem of Small Change, with Francois Velde, Princeton University Press, 2002; Recursive Macroeconomic Theory, with Lars Ljungqvist, MIT Press, 2004; and Robustness, with Lars Peter Hansen, Princeton University Press, 2007.

Sargent earned his PhD from Harvard University in 1968 and was a first lieutenant and captain in the US Army.

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Recent Commentary


Inflation, Deficits And Paul Volcker

by Thomas J. Sargent, William Silbervia The Wall Street Journal
Thursday, March 3, 2022

[Subscription required] The Fed chairman who tamed runaway prices understood Congress’s role in unleashing them.


The Market Is Too Serene About Inflation

by Thomas J. Sargentvia The Wall Street Journal
Tuesday, January 11, 2022

[Subscription Required] As in the early 1980s, new realities test the idea that interest rates reflect ‘rational expectations.’

Co-Author: William L. Silber

In the News

Dispelling The Myths And Rumors About China's Digital Currency

quoting Thomas J. Sargentvia Nikkei Asia
Friday, August 13, 2021

Every technological evolution spawns a crowd blinded by ignorance.

In the News

Fretting About Inflation May Be Just The Cure We Need

quoting Thomas J. Sargentvia Bloomberg
Thursday, February 18, 2021

To stave off runaway price hikes, the country needs to be reassured that the Federal Reserve still has its hand on the leash.


The AI Frontier Of Economic Theory

by Thomas J. Sargentvia Project Syndicate
Monday, December 2, 2019

Until recently, data sets were small and costly, and computers were slow and expensive. So it is natural that as gains in computing power have dramatically reduced these impediments, economists have rushed to use big data and artificial intelligence to help them spot patterns in all sorts of activities and outcomes.

In the News

Nobel Prize-Winning Economist Optimistic About Korea's Economy

featuring Thomas J. Sargentvia The Korea Times
Sunday, April 28, 2019

Pessimism about the Korean economy has become dominant, with all indicators pointing to a downturn. Many economists are raising concerns that the country is slipping into a low growth trap with its twin engines of growth ― exports and domestic demand ― losing steam simultaneously.

Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen.
In the News

It Can't Die Of Old Age If It's Not A 'Recovery' To Begin With

quoting Thomas J. Sargentvia Real Clear Markets
Friday, February 22, 2019

On her last day as Chairman, Janet Yellen allowed CBS News reporter Rita Braver to follow her around saying goodbye and reminiscing. It was February 1, 2018, by every mainstream account a good time to be sailing off into the sunset. Federal Reserve officials like Yellen had been waiting a very long time for everything to pay off. Last February, more than any other time over the last decade, they finally believed they had done it.

The Fed Needs a Spine

by Thomas J. Sargent, William Silbervia Hoover Digest
Monday, August 13, 2012

Clearer signals about interest rates are well and good, but what the Fed really needs to demonstrate is strength to reject political pressure. By Thomas J. Sargent and William Silber.

A Lesson for Europe

by Thomas J. Sargentvia Hoover Digest
Friday, April 6, 2012

America’s founders paid off the states’ debts once—but only once. That wise example could benefit Europe today. By Thomas J. Sargent.

Federal Reserve
Analysis and Commentary

The challenges of the Fed’s bid for transparency

by Thomas J. Sargent, William Silbervia Financial Times
Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Inappropriate deviations from stated path must be avoided...